RedSoxNotes: 2006

Worst outfield arms?

Keith Woolner at Baseball Prospectus just came out with a short piece on the worst outfield arms in baseball. Interesting idea, but his methodology leaves a little to be desired. Woolner compares which outfields did the best at keeping runners from scoring from second on a single. He compares teams' success compared to the league average, which allows runners to score 60% of the time.

The good news? The Red Sox don't make the list. The bad news? The numbers aren't park-adjusted, so Fenway's short left field may be skewing things in our favor.

Here's the worst:


Team  Players                      R   RS   %  Diff
TBA   Crawford-Baldelli-Hollins    32  26 .813 -6.8
SFN   Bonds-Finley-Winn            49  36 .735 -6.6
NYA   Cabrera-Damon-Williams       35  26 .743 -5.0
WAS   Soriano-Byrd-Guillen         44  31 .705 -4.6
PIT   Bay-Bautista-Wilson          31  23 .742 -4.4
LAN   Ethier-Lofton-Drew           46  32 .696 -4.4
TBA   Crawford-Gathright-Hollins   40  27 .675 -3.0
SLN   Taguchi-Edmonds-Encarnacion  49  32 .653 -2.6
SFN   Bonds-Winn-Alou              38  25 .658 -2.2

Here's the best:


Team  Players                      R   RS   %  Diff
TOR   Johnson-Wells-Rios           71  29 .408 13.6
DET   Monroe-Granderson-Ordonez    86  41 .477 10.6
TOR   Catalanotto-Wells-Rios       42  18 .429  7.2
OAK   Payton-Kotsay-Bradley        48  22 .458  6.8
SEA   Ibanez-Reed-Ichiro           65  33 .508  6.0
CIN   Dunn-Griffey-Kearns          61  31 .508  5.6
KCA   Brown-DeJesus-Sanders        46  22 .478  5.6
ANA   Rivera-Figgins-Guerrero      52  26 .500  5.2
ATL   Langerhans-Jones-Francoeur   110 61 .555  5.0

Break from the hot stove

Taking a breather from all the rumors and new player discussions, here is some random baseball stuff that's pretty interesting:

Sox infielder Alex Cora had the longest plate appearance that ended in a walk last season. On April 27th, he took a free pass from Cleveland's Paul Byrd after 15 pitches.

There were three plate appearances that lasted 16 pitches last year. All involved the Astros. On July 27th, the Reds' Elizardo Ramirez struck out Astro Craig Biggio. On the game between Houston and the Cubs on June 15th, Fernando Nieve got Ronny Cedeno to fly out. And finally, Mike Lamb flied out against the Rangers pitcher Vicente Padilla on June 30th.

Here is a list of the top pitchers last year in 3 pitch strikeouts:

Johan Santana 56
John Lackey 49
John Smoltz 46
C.C. Sabathia 45
Aaron Harang 42

Here are the batters who have the most plate appearances without swinging the bat:

Jason Giambi 71
Brian Giles 71
Bobby Abreu 70
Nick Johnson 61
Kevin Youkilis 59

More on Drew and Lugo

Here are links to defensive charts for Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew.

A note:

Fenway Park has been kind to Lugo over the years. He has a career line of .330/.384/.496 in 127 plate appearances in Boston. On a go forward basis, one could even argue that Lugo could benefit a tad by facing Tampa Bay's pitching rather than Boston's. He certainly knows the AL East well and has, in fact, hit .286/.358/.431 vs. the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles throughout his career.

Gerald Green for closer?

With the signings of J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo, the Sox need only sign Dice-K, find a closer and a back-up catcher. We'll get to all of those in posts today, and as I've made my choice for closer (hint - he leads the NBA in 3-point shooting) we'll take Daisuke Matsuzaka first.

The Sox have a week until their signing window closes, and I think it's only a matter of time.

On the conspiracy theory front: Scott Boras recalled Major League Baseball’s recent reminder that side deals between ballclubs like the Red Sox and Seibu is not a good thing and that “the integrity of the posting would be flawed” if it were allowed.

Although Boston is not allowed to work out a side deal with the Seibu Lions, Boras told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald, "no rules exist that would prohibit Seibu from paying money to Matsuzaka to help him come to a decision where he would sign with the Red Sox and the Lions collect their $51.1 million." If that is the case, then this deal should get finalized rather easily.

Here is how it gets done:
Boston puts up $10 million per year for five years.
Seibu kicks back $3M per year to Matsuzaka.
Matsuzaka earns $13M per year from 2007-2011.
The total outlay for the Red Sox ends up being just over $100M or approximately $20M per season.
Seibu nets $36M.
Oh, and Boras earns a tidy $4M commission.
Everybody walks away happy.

Julio Lugo Analysis - Defense

So the last post was obvious - Julio Lugo is an offensive upgrade over Alex Gonzalez. No shit - Bryon Bratt is an offensive upgrade over Alex Gonzalez.

The conventional wisdom defensively seems to be that Lugo is a significant step down defensively. Many of the articles I've read take the position that Lugo is just as quick and covers as much ground, but his "hands" aren't as good so he makes more errors.

Let's take a quick trip down inane stat lane and see how Lugo compares to Gonzalez over their careers in Fielding Percentage, Zone Rating and Range Factor. (click on the link for an explanation of the stat).

Player     FPCT    ZR    RF
Lugo       0.965   0.848 4.690
Gonzalez   0.970   0.843 4.510

From those numbers, it looks like Lugo actually covers slightly more ground, and the gap in their fielding percentages is negligible. Here are their stats using the Probabilistic Model of Range:


Player          ActOut  PredOut  DER    PredDER  Difference
Julio Lugo      253     241.59   0.120  0.115    0.00542
Alex Gonzalez   350     347.62   0.117  0.116    0.00080

Lugo is the better player under this metric, 6th in the majors vs. 17th for Gonzalez.
None of these metrics measure ability to turn the double play, however. That's a tough one to measure in numbers, since the second-baseman has a lot to do with that.

Julio Lugo Analysis - Offense

Julio Lugo hits for a career .277/.340/.402. Last year, he hit .303/.373/.498 before being asked to man the entire diamond for the Dodgers in limited time, where he hit .219/.278/.267. In 2005, he hit .295/.362/.403.

In the last three years, he has shown a propensity for doubles - 41 in 2004, 36 in 2005, and had 17 in 73 games for the Devil Rays in 2006. The number is low because in 73 games, he hammered 12 home-runs as opposed to six in 158 games in 2005.

He will get himself on base at an above average rate, so I like that - even if he's not a stud in that department.

Looking at his overall production, his EqA is .270: good for 15th among all shortstops. Alex Gonzalez checks in with a well below average .245.

Lugo's Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is 31.3 - good enough for 5th among shortstops. Alex Gonzalez barely registers with 3.2.

"He is very contagious," Devil Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "In the dugout prior to the game, this guy is the kind of guy that runs up and down the dugout, slaps everybody, high-five, has a special handshake for everybody, plays with enthusiasm always. "He's very contagious. He's a leader. He's a leader in the sense that he sets a good example. [The Devil Rays] just missed his presence on a daily basis."

Next up: Lugo's defense.

Manny to be traded today?

ESPN Deportes is reporting (I think) that Manny will be traded today to either the Dodgers or the Mariners. I read the article through an internet translator, so the translation not the best.

The article quotes "a source of whole credit to ESPNdeportes.com," as saying that the Dodgers offered Brad Penney and 2 prospects "whereas the Sailors have offered to Adrian Beltré and Richie Sexson, but Boston insists on including to one of two throwers, between lock J.J. Putz and the preinn Rafael Soriano."

The article says that both teams have agreed to pick up one of Manny's 2 option years.

J.D. Drew in quotes

Here is what some members of the Dodgers organization have to say about J.D. Drew:
Former teammate Bill Mueller:

"I tell you what, he's a great player, a great individual, and a character guy. Any left-handed bat like his, the way he uses the whole field, he could have great success there. Unfortunately for us, he went somewhere else, which is his option. The market is great and he took advantage of it.

"Boston is such a great, great, great place to play. It's hard for me to say don't go to Boston because I think everybody should be able to experience playing in Boston. It's the Mecca of the game."

"You definitely have to have a certain mentality going in. The way J.D. is, he goes about business the way I do. Usually when people have that kind of personality, they do fine because they go out there and play their hearts out."

Dodgers Manager Grady Little on whether Drew can play in Boston:

"Of course he can," said the former Red Sox manager, who had Drew in Los Angeles last season. "He's an outstanding ballplayer. He can play anywhere."

"We were surprised [that he moved on]," said Little. "We thought J.D. was going to be our right fielder for a long time. We enjoyed having him on the team. We liked his game. He played hard for us."

Dave Jauss, Drew's outfield coach in Los Angeles who spent many years in the Red Sox organization:

"I expect him to be a really good player in Boston," said Jauss. "The game is the same between the white lines. J.D. is a fine athlete. He'll do so much good in the community, as he did in Los Angeles, that you can't help but like him."

"He's an excellent outfielder. He's got very good speed. He can score from first on a double and definitely score from second on a single. The fact he doesn't pull the ball is going to make him an effective hitter at Fenway. Not so much for the wall but for the fact on those cold days there, he's going to be able to go the other way and contribute as a hitter."

Sox GM Theo Epstein said that the Sox were convinced Drew would be a solid hitter at Fenway:

"He really has a great swing for Fenway Park," Epstein said. "When he pulls the ball and elevates the ball, it will certainly reach the bullpen. He's got plus raw power. The big dimensions in right field and even center field won't be a problem for him. If you look at his hit chart, those balls get out."

The Sox were also attracted, as Epstein would put it, by the thought of putting a center fielder in right field. Drew's agent, Scott Boras, said Drew has agreed to play either position.

Boras: "You look at what J.D. has done in these last three years. Other than getting hit on the wrist by a ball, this guy has put up numbers. He's an above-average defender. He's a guy that can steal 20-30 bases. He has a very fine throwing arm. He has 25-30 home run power.

"And in Fenway, with the ability for him to go to left field, because he has the ability to spray the ball around, I think it's really going to increase his average and put him in a position playerwise where he has a chance to be a very potent offensive threat."

Should Sox get Gagne?

Patrick Fitzpatrick asks:

As many of the rumors involving Manny and the Sox have centered around the acquisition of a closer, it will be interesting to see how the Sox approach Eric Gagne.

Originally it was reported that Gagne would work out for teams in about a month, giving teams the opportunity to see for themselves that Gagne’s health is no longer of concern. However, the latest rumblings have Boras seeking a new home for the former lights-out Cy-Young award winner by the end of the week. If this is true, and if the Sox are indeed going to be a major player in the Gagne sweepstakes, what implications (if any) will this have on trade talks involving Ramirez? At first glance it would be unrealistic to think that any team would sign Gagne with expectations that Gagne would come into spring training as the team’s closer.

Thus if the Sox were to sign Gagne, it would be in their best interest to have a good backup plan. However, it is equally as unrealistic to think that Boras isn’t going to squeeze every last penny from the team that signs him. With players such as Vincent Padilla locking down $34 million dollar contracts, one can only speculate how much Gagne will command in the surging market that is the 2006 off-season.

This raises two important questions: (1) how strongly should the Sox pursue Gagne, and (2) if they are successful, what affect would this have on the team’s demands for Manny?

Ideally, the Sox should try to sign Gagne to an incentive-based contract that would allow Gagne to collect the money that he seeks if he is healthy, and protect the Sox if he is not. But, and this is a major but, what are the chances that Boras would accept such a deal? While Gagne’s 2006 salary was $10 million, that figure was based on Gagne’s performance before any health concerns. Is Gagne’s upside worth the risk that he could be collecting a King’s ransom from the DL?

J.D. Drew - Defense

Obviously I haven't seen him play a lot, so I can't comment from personal observation.
Here's how Drew compares to other MLB rightfielders in the various statistical metrics:

Fielding Percentage (putouts + assists / chances): .983 (6^th)
Range Factor (putouts + assists / innings played at the position): 2.91 (3^rd)
Zone Rating (balls fielded/total balls hit into his “zone”): .891 (5^th)
Probabilistic Model of Range (difference between actual outs and predicted outs): 10^th

^{Oh, and he's a solid baserunner.}

J.D. Drew - Analysis

This will be the first in a series of posts looking into what we can expect from the two newest Red Sox: J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo.

To kick things off, I like the Drew signing a lot. I know a lot of you disagree with me on this, so fire away. I'm going to start the analysis with a look at him from a purely statistical viewpoint, and then move on to what people around baseball who have seen him play a lot have to say.

Obviously the first selling point here is his ability to get on base.

In that most crucial of offensive skills (not getting out), Drew was 4^th among all outfielders last year with a .393 OBP. That's his career number, too, ut he has gone over 400 recently.

Drew is one of the best players in history at avoiding the double play. In 960 games, Drew has grounded into only 41 DP's.

He has a good amount of pop in the bat as well:

Drew's .891 OPS was 13^th, and he was 11^th in secondary average (.293), a stat that attempts to measure the value of a player's offensive production, exclusive of singles. It's basically SLG minus AVG.

Looking deeper into the sabertrics with a couple stats that try to measure total offensive production, Drew is 5^th in Equivalent Average (.300) and 9^th in Runs Created per 27 outs (7.33).

Drew deal confirmed

J.D. Drew's agent Scott Boras has confirmed a 5 year, $70 million deal:
"He's going to be a contributor. They had two big sluggers, righty-lefty, Ortiz and Ramirez," Boras told the Associated Press. "J.D. has a great on-base percentage. He gives you a quality at-bat. He's an RBI guy. And he's really going to add a defensive component to that team that is, I think, really going to enhance their play, what they do both with arm strength and his ability to cover ground in the outfield. And his baserunning -- he can run a little bit. He is going to steal 20 or 30 bases. He's going to bring a dimension there.

Pettitte back to the Bronx?

The latest rumor out of the meetings has Andy Pettitte reconsidering retirement for a return to the Bronx. SI's Tom Verducci is reporting that the free-agent lefty is "the club's No. 1 option."

The free-agent left-hander, who is strongly considering retirement, is said to be intrigued with the idea of returning to pinstripes and "could possibly have a deal by the end of the week" with New York, according to a baseball source familiar with the negotiations.

The Yankees are willing to wait as long as necessary for Pettitte, whose original timetable was to defer a decision on 2007 until later this month.

How do his numbers stack up against other free agent starters? Here are Pettitte's numbers over the last 2 years compared with Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt:

Pitcher	W-L	ERA	IP	K/9	K/BB
Pettitte	31-22	3.28	436.2	7.19	3.14
Zito	30-23	3.78	449.1	6.45	1.71
Schmidt	23-16	3.95	385.1	8.02	2.09

Mariners offer Putz

The Seattle Mariners are rumored to be in discussions with the Sox for Manny as well. There are a couple scenarios here:
In the first, the Sox trade straight-up with the M's for reliever J.J. Putz and (depending on who's doing the rumormongering) either Richie Sexson or centerfield prospect Adam Jones.
The other rumor is a three-team deal involving the Giants with Putz and Jones to Boston, Sexson to San Francisco and Manny and Noah Lowry to Seattle.
Either way, you can cross one hole off Theo's to-do list: a closer. Putz is a stud. He is 29 years old and threw 78.1 innings last year, saving 36 games with a 0.92 WHIP and 2.30 ERA. Some deeper numbers:
11.95 K/9, 0.46 HR/9, 8.09K/BB.
The Nationals have apparently made late efforts to jump in on this trade, proposing a three-way with the Giants that would have Chad Cordero and Felipe Lopez coming to Boston and Lowry, Jonathan Sanchez and Brian Wilson going to Washington.
Cordero is a 24-year-old closer who had 29 saves last season with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.
Looking at the peripherals, he had 8.47 K/9, 1.60 HR/9 and 3.13 K/BB with 3.31RA.
Lopez is a 22-year-old shortstop who hit .281 / .362 / .365. Don't be fooled by the .365 SLG, he has shown some pop in the past and projects to hit quite a few homers for a shortstop. He's also a speed demon.

Carpenter extended - Why?

The Cardinals just signed Chris Carpenter to a contract extension, reaching agreement on a deal that will pay him $65 mil through 2011, with a club option for 2012 worth $12 mil. Initially sounds like a good idea - $13 mil per season for arguably the top starting pitcher in the NL.

Upon further review, what were they thinking? They already had him under contract for this season at $7 mil and next season for $8 mil. So basically this deal amounts to adding three years to the deal for an additional $50 million, or just shy of $17 mil per year. Carpenter is nasty, but they have him under control already for his age 32 and 33 seasons. Why give him an extension that will pay him 17 mil for his 34-36 seasons before you see if he stays healthy at least through this season?

Giants - repeat performance?

Baseball Prospectus reports that the Giants signed Rich Aurilia to a two year deal, on the heels of signing Ray Durham. There was also a notion going around late last night that the Giants were about to sign Bengie Molina to a three-year deal, creating the beautiful idea that Mike Matheny could credibly be used as a pinch-runner in 2007.

As Joe Sheehan points out: the Giants are painting themselves into a corner.

Every time they spend money on a player in his thirties, a player with more past than future, they make it that much more critical that they sign Barry Bonds for 2007 to complete the roster and give them that chance at winning the other moves reflect a desire for.

If they don't sign Bonds, it's 2005 all over again, an aging team with an average pitching staff that won't score anywhere near enough runs to compete.

Sox reject Dodgers offer

Will Carroll is reporting that the Dodgers' offer of Jonathan Broxton and Andy LaRoch e was rejected by the Sox today. The Sox had been seeking a package of 3 of the Dodgers' top prospects. Looking at the numbers, any package would have to include Broxton. He's 22 and shows a ton of promise.
LaRoche is a young third base prospect that the team has been interested in for a while.
The Sox are also said to be seeking outfielder Matt Kemp, first baseman James Loney, and infielder Willy Aybar.
Kemp is 21 and a nice prospect who projects to be a big masher. He played 52 games in the majors last year and hit 7 homers with a .448 SLG.
Loney also projects to have some pop in the bat. He hit .284 / .342 / .559 in 48 games last season in his first big league time.
Aybar is a plus defender in the infield who doesn't have a great deal of pop in the bat yet but is already getting on base at a stellar rate: .313 / .373 / .391.

Get the Foulke out of town? Not so fast...

The back and forth on whether Keith Foulke is coming back to the team continues to take some interesting turns. Before we get into the ins and outs of that, lets take a quick peek at why we would even want him. Here are Foulke's numbers from after the All-Star break:
2.04 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 4.33 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP - pretty tasty.
If you recall, the team had a $7.5 mil option on Foulke for 2007 which they paid a $1.5 mil buyout when they (understandably) declined to exercise. That left Foulke with a $3.75 mil player option which he turned down.
Earlier this week, the team offered arbitration to the former closer. We went over the compensation rules earlier, but here is some more info on how arbitration works:
Both the player and the team submit an amount, and the arbitrator has to pick one or the other bid - nothing in the middle. Under the previous collective bargaining agreement, a team could not submit a bid that amounted a pay cut of any more than 20%. That clause has been removed from the new collective bargaining agreement, meaning that if Foulke accepts arbitration, they could potentially offer a price as low as the minimum.
Michael Silverman at the Herald reports that the Sox do not exptect Foulke to accept arbitration, but that his agent, Danny Horwits, said he was more enthusiastic about coming back after having positive conversations with the front office, team doctors, and his teammates.
Foulke is a type-B free agent, and the Sox would get a draft pick if he were to sign elsewhere.

Everyone waiting on Manny

The entire baseball universe is revolving around Manny Ramirez. According to Nick Cafardo, the lovable slugger has dominated conversation at baseball's winter meetings, with teams waiting to see if a Manny blockbuster comes down before making other deals.
With that in mind, we'll do a special Manny day here at Notes, breaking down each potential trading partner and the pieces that would likely change hands in separate posts. Stay tuned as the day goes on.
Sox GM Theo Epstein, with the team in dire need of a closer, middle relief help and a shortstop, said yesterday that the Sox would actively seek to trade Manny only until Wednesday at midight, at which time they would turn their attention to addressing the teams other needs.
"I think at some point, if we realistically get past Wednesday, we're not going to take up more of the team's time and energy," he said. "We'll certainly be listeners. At some point, you can't let it get in the way of other things you're trying to do. There's also the free agent market and pitching to deal with."
Theo did say however that convincing teams to take on Manny's salary has not been the sticking point this season.
"In this market, teams aren't backing off from taking salaries," he said. "Trading for large salaries hasn't seemed to be an issue."
Obviously the team will be willing to trade Manny going forward. Anyone with any experience in negotiating understands that deals tend to get done at the deadline. By creating an artificial deadline for trading Manny, Theo may be able to push some of these competing teams to sweeten the pot.

Lester back this year?

The Globe, Herald, and ESPN are all reporting that Jon Lester's cancer is in remission and he expects to be with the team in spring training this season.
According to Gordon Edes and Nick Cafardo:

A source with direct knowledge of Jon Lester's medical condition said yesterday that Lester's latest CT scan was clean and his cancer seems to be in remission.

Lester was diagnosed in late August with a rare form of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, a blood cancer, and began treatment in September. The condition was identified as anaplastic large cell lymphoma, a rare cancer accounting for 1-2 percent of all lymphomas. The cause is unknown.

Dr. Robert Soiffer, chief of the division of blood cancers at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston, indicated at the time of Lester's diagnosis that the cancer was responsive to chemotherapy, and predicted that if it did help, Lester would be able to return to pitching after his treatment was finished. Lester began treatment in Boston but returned home to continue at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle. He has one more course of chemotherapy to undergo, the source said.

Broxton from LA?

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Sox and Dodgers met at midnight last night to discuss a possible Manny trade. Rosenthal says that the Red Sox almost certainly would want right-hander Jonathan Broxton, a future closer, in a Ramirez package. Broxton is a very exciting possibility, even though he may not be on many Sox fans' radar. The guy is 22-years-old, and had a nasty second season in the majors last year with a 2.59 ERA in 73 relief innings. In addition to his low ERA, his peripheral stats also portend future success: 11.44 K/9, almost 3 strikeouts per walk, and he held opponents to a .216 avg/.300obp/ .348 slg.

Rosenthal also reports a package of Brad Penny (ERA over 6 after the all-star break last year), third baseman Andy LaRoche and first baseman James Loney might entice the Red Sox. Penny, 28, is signed for $7.5 million next season and $8.5 million in 2008, with an $8.75 million club option for '09.

The Dodgers, however, might not want to part with top prospects if they're required to take on Ramirez's $20 million club options in both 2009 and '10, which would be the likely price for persuading him to waive his no-trade clause.

Winter Meetings Preview

With baseball's winter meetings beginning today, very few GMs have more on their plate than Theo Epstein. Here are some tidbits from the latest post by Peter Gammons:

Look, the Red Sox don't even know if Manny Ramirez will be or can be traded at the winter meetings, so no one does.
They don't know if they can get the Dodgers and Angels in a marketing war and end up with something close to what they want. They don't know if the Mariners would trade rookie center fielder Adam Jones and pitching.

It would shock no one if, after weeks of bartering, the Red Sox got a deal with a team like the Dodgers and Manny exercised his 10/5 rights or held up the deal, pressuring Genske to get 2009 and 2010 guaranteed at the $20 million per year, per the contract option.

The club has told Genske in no uncertain terms that if they accede to his trade request and the deal gets held up, Ramirez will have to sit in Boston for the remainder of the deal.

The sense around the Red Sox is that while they may reach for the antacid they aren't going to roll over if Ramirez comes back; if Julio Lugo were to sign (for less than the Cubs' or Mets' offers so he could play short and be with his old friend David Ortiz), then the Lugo/Coco Crisp/Ortiz/Ramirez/J.D. Drew front five would be extremely powerful.

It is assumed that Epstein will complete the Drew deal (my analogy is that J.D. Drew equals Fred Lynn), try to sign Lugo and find a closer. Would Seattle deal J.J. Putz for Manny? Dubious. Scott Boras would like to get Eric Gagne to Boston; problem is, are the medicals real or off the set of General Hospital? Joe Borowski has been calling now that his medicals were declined in Philly.

Jonathan Papelbon's recent MRI was precisely the same as the one he took when he first signed out of Mississippi State, so they are very encouraged by his progress and convinced he will be a 200-innings horse.

The Giants offered Carlos Lee $113M, and they are trying to get into the Ramirez thing … anything to not take Barry Bonds back. Boston has no interest in Bonds.

The Padres have dabbled in the Ramirez talks but don't think they have enough without trading Peavy, which is not going to happen. Boston does not think Scott Linebrink is a closer, and the one available starter in that kind of deal would be Clay Hensley. "That," says one GM, "isn't going to get it done."

Protection for Papi?

Much has been made of the lost protection of David Ortiz should the Sox trade Manny.

Since 2003, Ortiz has played in 55 games in which Manny did not have an AB. The Sox went 33-22 (.600) in those games.

In 186 AB, Papi hit .301 and slugged .624 with 17 HR. Over a 162-game season, that projects to 50 HR with 133 RBI with 133 walks. ... In 2006, he slugged .636 with 54 HR, 137 RBI and 119 BB.

Let's also recall that Ortiz hit behind Manny for all of 2003, a good chunk of 2004 (including the playoffs), the first few months of 2005, and in September of 2006. Ortiz put up a .983 OPS hitting behind Manny in 2003, a .958 OPS during the part of 2004 that he hit behind Manny, a .960 OPS when he was behind Manny in 2005 and an OPS over 1.200 in September of '06.

More on No. 40 (Okajima)

"Hello, hello. My name is Hideki Okajima and I like Boston," were the first words he uttered as a Red Sox reliever.

Okajima will be paid $1.25 million each of the next two seasons and has a $1.75 million club option for 2009.

Here are Okajima's righty/lefty splits:


vs. RH (130 AB) .254 BA, 6 BB, 36 K, 5 HR
vs. LH ( 70 AB) .186 BA, 8 BB, 27 K, 0 HR

Okajima's big-game experience was something Sox Director of International Scouting Craig Shipley felt would come in handy in Boston.

"Two thousand five for me was the first time I saw him," he said. "[International scout] John Deeble has seen him for a number of years before that. He has a very good overhand curveball and has good command. He can use his fastball on both sides of the plate. He throws two types of splits, one he throws for a strike and another when he's trying to get a strikeout or a swing and a miss.

"He has a lot of experience in big games in Japan. He's pitched in a number of roles in Japan, as well, as a starter and a closer. He's more than a situational left-hander."

Lugo to the Cubs?

Multiple sources report that the Cubs have offered Julio Lugo a multi-year deal. Some outlets report that they want him to play center field, others shortstop.

Here's Ken Rosenthal's view on the situation:

How Lugo would fit into the Cubs' plans remains unclear. He could start out in center field, then move back to shortstop if the Cubs promoted top prospect Felix Pie and/or parted with shortstop Cesar Izturis, whose contract expires after next season.

Lugo, 31, was a favorite of new Cubs manager Lou Piniella's with the Devil Rays. His athleticism intrigues the Cubs, who could field an electrifying lineup if they added Lugo to a mix that will include Soriano, first baseman Derrek Lee and third baseman Aramis Ramirez — and eventually Pie.

The likelihood of Pie's emergence — possibly in 2007, probably no later than '08 — has caused the Cubs to back off free-agent center fielder Gary Matthews Jr., who would block Pie, 21, if he signed a long-term deal. Lugo, on the other hand, would be versatile enough to return to the infield — that is, if he doesn't sign with the Red Sox to play shortstop or the Mets to second base.

Trot coming back?

The Boston Globe is reporting that the Sox are likely to offer salary arbitration to free agent outfielder Trot Nixon by today's deadline.

“Although Nixon has fielded feelers from other teams, he has maintained that his first choice was to prolong his career in Boston. If the Sox offer arbitration today -- and one club source cautioned it wasn't definite -- and Nixon accepts by the Dec. 7 deadline, that would make him the equivalent of a signed player for 2007, and probably place him squarely in the team's plans.

Nixon was paid $6.5 million last season and could expect to win a raise in arbitration, which would place him at a salary level unusually high for a spare outfielder. That points to the strong possibility the Sox have other plans for Nixon.”

Another possibility is that the Sox want to make sure they receive compensation should Trot sign with another team. Nixon is a type-B free agent, which means that if the Sox offer him arbitration and he signs with another club, they would get a "sandwich" pick between the first and second rounds of the draft.

Second-baseman Mark Loretta could also be offered arbitration this week. As Loretta is a type-A free agent, the Sox would be entitled to even more compensation, depending on who signs him. If that team's 1st round pick is in the bottom 15, the Sox get that pick and a sandwich pick. If that team's 1st round pick is in the top 15, the pick is protected and the Sox get the sandwich pick and the team's 2nd round pick.

For more on MLB's free agent rules, check out this link.

Here is a link to a site where you can track the draft picks teams owe as a result of free agent signings this off season.

Hideki Okajima update

Here is a third-hand scouting report on new sox lefty reliever Hideki Okajima, courtesy of a Giants scout:

1. Fastball — low 90’s
Okajima’s fastball is an average MLB-caliber pitch. It is a heavy pitch that is difficult to hit because it has late movement away from lefthanded hitters. 20-80 scale: 60-65

2. Curveball — 70’s-80’s
Okajima’s curveball is his bread-and-butter pitch. It breaks hard and late, away from lefthanded hitters and down and in to righties. He’ll throw it on any count and he will strike-out batters by changing location with it, which he does very well. 20-80 scale: 70

3. Forkball
Okajima does not use his forkball often, but he will use it when he’s struggling with his control. He locates the pitch very well, but there are times when he does not get the necessary spin on the ball for it to break as much as he’d like it to. The pitch is very tough on righthanded batters. 20-80 scale: 55

Okajima will primarily rely on those three pitches, with the fastball and curveball being his most consistent and favorite pitches to throw. He also supposedly has a splitter, but it doesn’t have as much bite as his other pitches and is not an MLB-caliber pitch.

By the way, the Yankees supposedly also made an offer to Okajima that actually included more money than the Sox offer, but were turned down because Okajima preferred Boston, thinking that the Sox wanted him more because they placed the first offer.

Sox sign Okajima

The Boston Herald is reporting that the Sox have signed 31-year-old lefty reliever Hideki Okajima to an unspecified deal. that is rumored to be for 2 years.
Okajima was traded to Nippon Ham in late March after spending 12 seasons with the Yomiuri Giants. He went 2-2 with four saves and a 2.14 ERA this year with Nippon Ham, bringing his career record to 34-32 with 41 saves and a 3.36 ERA.
He has 63 Ks with only 14 walks in 54 2/3 innings pitched last season.
He supposedly has a nasty curve but doesn't throw that hard.

Who's the fastest?

I came across this list yesterday that ranks MLB starters by average fastball speed (min. 162 IP) :

King Felix:   95.2
Verlander:    95.1
Beckett:      94.7
Penny:        93.9
Sabathia:     93.7
Cain:         93.4
Bonderman:    93.3
Escober:      93.1
Wang:         93.1
E. Santana:   93.1
J. Santana:   93.1
Snell:        92.8
Oswalt:       92.7
Smoltz:       92.7
Bedard:       92.6

J.D. vs. J.D.

Much has been made about the fact that the Sox only offered Johnny Damon $10 million a year and are now close to signing J.D. Drew for $14 million. Forget the money and compare their production:

Damon (32 years old) 2006: 148 games/ 285avg / 359obp / 482slg / 24hrs
Drew (30 years old) 2006: 146 games / 283avg / 393obp / 512slg / 20hrs

Here's their career averages in full seasons:

Damon: 289avg / 353obp / 436slg / 24hr
Drew:  286avg / 393obp / 512slg / 27hr

From a production standpoint, Drew is the superior player.

The averages are the same, but while Johnny is supposed to be the great leadoff hitter/on base guy, Drew is 18th in all MLB players in on base %, while Damon checks in at 68th. Drew also has more pop in the bat.

Anyone concerned that JD Drew misses too much time? Johnny Damon has averaged 148 games played over the last 4 years. Drew played 145 in 2004 and 146 last year. He only played 72 games in 2005, but that was because he was hit by a pitch and broke a bone - not exactly something that can be blamed on his being injury prone. With Damon 2 years older, there's no reason to expect him to play any more time than Drew over the next 3-4 years.

So again, forgetting the money, you have to take Drew over Damon.

On to the money. I think it's a mistake to compare the Sox $10 mil offer to Damon with a $14 mil offer to Drew. NY paid Damon $13 mil and it would have taken close to that to keep him. We also have to factor in the changed market conditions this off-season with the increased revenue and new collective bargaining agreement meaning labor peace for the near future. In a market where Gary Matthews Jr. gets $50 mil, how much is Damon worth then?

Basically the Sox are getting a better, younger player for essentially $1 million more in a market that has inflated salaries. I say good deal.

Bill James on Mike Lowell

Baseball Daily Digest has an interview with Bill James about his 2006 Fielding Bible. Here is what James has to say about Mike Lowell:
"Mike Lowell is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. He's extremely interesting to watch. He keeps his glove hand, his left hand, very relaxed, and he doesn't appear to anticipate the hop at all. What I am saying is. .. the announcers, the veteran baseball people will tell you that the key to making the plays is to get your body in the proper position to make the play. But in fact, if you actually watch the fielders, very often they can't handle a tough hop or a line drive at an awkward angle precisely because they're trying to play the ball with their whole body. They're relying on positioning their body to make the play, and when something happens that makes that impossible, they're just SOL. Lowell, if you watch him, seems to be saying "it is easier to react with my left arm than it is to re-position my whole body in anticipation of the play." He stays balanced, stays loose, reacts late and has extraordinary confidence in his ability to snag the ball with his glove at the last moment. I've never really seen anything like it before, but this looseness and unusual confidence, for example, gives him a remarkable ability to charge a ground ball. He can change a slow grounder top speed because he knows that, bad hop or good hop, in-between stride or on stride, he can slap at the ball with his glove and pick it out of the air."

New notes feature:

Starting today, players mentioned in Notes entries will have hyperlinks to their Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projection page. I chose the BP page over ESPN and other player pages because it has links to all the other pages right under the player’s picture. It also has a handy bar graph that lets you instantly compare a player to the league average on several key metrics.

Timlin blows it again

Mike Timlin’s struggles are not exactly news. Over the last 22 games, the 40-year-old has allowed 18 earned runs in his last 21 1/3 innings and five home runs in his last 14 games.

Asked to protect a 3-2 Red Sox lead in the bottom of the eighth inning last night in relief of David Wells, Timlin surrendered a leadoff home run to Adrian Beltre and then the eventual winning sacrifice fly to Ben Broussard after back-to-back singles to Raul Ibanez and Richie Sexson. Much like his clueless comments during the Yankee’s series, Timlin seems to be in denial:

``I threw the ball exceptionally well. I can look at myself in the mirror and know I did exactly what I wanted and I got beat."

Another person who seems to be in denial is Terry Francona, at least about Timlin. Remy and Orsillo had no problem commenting on the success Beltre and Ibanez had had off Timlin up to that point. Going to Keith Foulke there would have been the smarter move.

Coco's weak arm strikes again

As Steven Krasner notes Coco Crisp's right shoulder must be bothering him again.

The Red Sox center fielder acknowledged in Kansas City about two weeks ago that the back of his right (throwing) shoulder was sore, to the point to where he was instructed to throw to the infield cutoff man on throws home.

Last night, with Adrian Beltre at second and one out in the fourth, Raul Ibanez ripped a line single to center. Beltre didn't get a great jump, but he was waved around by third-base coach Carlos Garcia.

Crisp charged the ball and fielded it cleanly, but he didn't even try to throw home. He threw to shortstop Alex Cora, who had gone out onto the outfield grass for a cutoff. Cora's belated throw home was cut off by first baseman Eric Hinske as Beltre scored the run that tied the game at 1-1.

The Mariners noticed Crisp's weak throwing effort. So when Richie Sexson followed with a high fly ball to center, shy of the warning track, Raul Ibanez, no speedster, tagged at first and made it to second into scoring position, easily beating Crisp's high-arching throw.

Roster notes...

Josh Beckett played catch yesterday and will again today as he hopes to stay on course to make his scheduled start Tuesday in Oakland.The right hander cut his right middle finger with his own fingernail in the sixth inning Thursday and left his start against the Angels an inning later. There was concern the past two days as to whether Beckett would need to be skipped, but Red Sox manager Terry Francona indicated before and after last night's 4-3 loss to the Mariners that Beckett is good to go.

Kevin Youkilis felt better yesterday after being sent back to the hotel Friday night with a stomach flu. Youkilis was still out of the lineup, but was available for pinch-hitting duty. Eric Hinske started at first base.

Mark Loretta, who had missed the previous two games with a strained left quadriceps, played first base in Youkilis's absence Friday and got one of the Sox' five hits. Loretta was back at second last night and knocked in a run in the fifth with a single.

Jeff Horrigan reports that Francona said he expects some pitching help to be summoned from Pawtucket on Friday, when rosters can be expanded to up to 40 players.

Another catcher, either Corky Miller or Ken Huckaby, is likely to join the team right away. Craig Hansen, Javier Lopez, Craig Breslow and Jermaine Van Buren are the leading candidates. First baseman Carlos Pena, utility man Willie Harris and outfielder David Murphy are among other candidates to be called up when the PawSox season ends Sept. 4.

Another good outing for Wells

Making his sixth start since returning from the disabled list on July 31, David Wells allowed eight hits and two runs in seven full innings. He took a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the seventh, when Mariners shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt poked a solo home run that tied the game.

In a 2-1 loss to the Yankees last Monday, Wells went 7 1/3 innings and allowed six hits and two earned runs, but the Sox' offense couldn't solve Cory Lidle.

Since his return, Wells has a 4.19 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 1.6BB/9 1.40HR/9 and 3.29K/BB.

2006 Red Sox = 2005 Yankees?

Obviously the main story of this horrifying weekend is the performance by the Red Sox pitching staff. Despite solid outings from David Wells and Curt Schilling, the rotation totally blew it, as they have been doing for quite some time now.
The Red Sox used seven pitchers over this weekend who they expected would play important roles this year: Schilling, Wells, Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, Keith Foulke, Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez. Those pitchers threw 28 2/3 innings, allowed 20 runs, all earned (6.28 ERA), struck out 23 men, walked 16 and allowed just two home runs. Not exactly what you're looking for, but not dreadful considering how bad Beckett's perfomance was -9 walks in 5 2/3 innings?!?

The Sox used seven other guys, including both starters last Friday. Those pitchers threw 17 1/3 innings, allowed 29 runs, 28 earned (14.54 ERA), walked 15, struck out 17 and allowed five homers.

As Joe Sheehan points out, the Sox are last year's Yankees, but without Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small. Before they were acquired by their respective teams, there was virtually no difference between Jason Johnson and Chicon or Kyle Snyder and Small.
Here are their numbers up to the time they were signed by NY and Boston:

Player      ERA    K/9     BB/9    HR/9    K/BB
Johnson    5.96    3.7     2.6     1.17    1.45
Snyder     5.91    4.4     2.3     1.09    1.88
Chacon     5.20    6.3     4.8     1.34    1.31
Small      6.35    5.2     5.2     2.38    1.00

As you can see, the Yankees got over 150 innings of quality starting pitching while the Sox got a steaming pile of shit.

Snyder on short rest

Despite throwing in the first game of Friday's doubleheader and in Saturday's game, Kyle Snyder will make tonight's start against the Angels in Anaheim, Calif. His recent workload -- 3 2/3 innings in the series -- plus the fact that he hasn't started in a month (July 26 in Oakland) might prove problematic for Snyder, especially considering he did not get a chance to fly ahead of the team to the West Coast. The Red Sox' other option as a starter was Kason Gabbard, but Terry Francona wanted to give the chance to Snyder, who has gone 2-2 with a 5.66 ERA as a starter with Boston.
“That doesn’t bother me,” said Snyder, who allowed three runs in two innings Friday and no runs and no hits in 1 2/3 innings Saturday. “I’ve spent a lot of time on commercial flights with two connections at a time and I’ve thrown some of my best games then. I’ll get plenty of rest. It’s a night game and I’ll be ready to go.”

Where have you gone...Matt Clement?

For all those Red Sox fans who ripped Matt Clement - wouldn't it be nice to have him available to make a start or two here?
Here is a look at Clement's numbers since July 1, 2005, as compared to some of the guys the Sox have trotted out there to take his place:

Name           ERA     K/9     BB/9    HR/9
Matt Clement   5.09    6.64    3.72    0.91
Jason Johnson  7.36    5.52    3.99    0.92
Kyle Snyder    5.34    8.16    2.53    1.97
David Pauley   7.88    5.62    3.38    0.56
Jon Lester     4.72    6.84    4.60    0.83

The only person here with better numbers is Jon Lester, but lets not forget that those numbers have dropped precipitously in the last month or so. Here's Lester since the All-Star break:

ERA     K/9      BB/9     HR/9
6.46    5.80     3.20     0.92

The Wizard of Oz strikes again

"Then they have a Mexican win the World Series in two years. And they're saying he doesn't have experience, he never managed in baseball before. Well, too fucking bad."
--Ozzie Guillen

"What's the difference? No one knows the difference anyway."
--Guillen, after being reminded that he's Venezuelan.

The man is a walking quote machine.

The only time to bunt?

Was anyone else surprised when the Red Sox had Kevin Youkilis bunt in the 9th inning last night? Loyal readers are well aware of my dislike of the sacrifice bunt, but this was a situation where even my inane-stat-driven prejudices seem to argue in favor of the bunt. Let's recap:
The game is tied going into the bottom of the ninth. After David Ortiz doubles off Mariano Rivera, the Yanks elect to walk Manny Ramirez. Probably a good idea considering that Manny hit .727 with an .833 on base percentage this series (only 3 outs!). With the winning run already in scoring position, Francona elects to try to sacrifice the runners along.
There are several good reasons to do this - for one it removes the double play possibility. It also statistically increases the odds of scoring a run. Check those expected runs tables: while sacrificing never increases the amount of total runs you will score, moving a runner from second to third with no outs is the only time a sacrifice increases the chance of scoring at least one run.
But that assumes you have someone coming up who will be able to drive the run in from third. Following Youkilis, the Sox had Mike Lowell, Gabe Kapler, and Doug Mirabelli. Given that Youkilis is the only player besides Manny and Ortiz that is hitting the ball well right now, wouldn't it have been better to let Youkilis, Lowell, and Eric Hinske (batting for Kapler) try to drive the run in with a single?

Arroyo finally gets 10th win

Bronson Arroyo broke his 10-game drought with a 7-2 win over the Cardinals last Tuesday night to improve to 10-8 with a 3.45 ERA. Arroyo went 14-10 with the Red Sox last season, getting his 10th win Aug. 10, in his 23d start, some six days before he got his 10th win with the Reds this year, in his 26th start.

In a strange season, he became the first pitcher in major league history to win nine of his first 15 starts and then go winless in his next 10.

Arroyo's competition in the National League so far has been far inferior compared with his last season in the AL. The opposing starting pitchers he's faced currently have a 114-138 (.452) combined record; last year, his opponents were a combined 263-249 (.514).

As noted earlier, even N.L. lineups are starting to figure him out.

Bullpen mismanaged again

Red Sox manager Terry Francona continues to mismanage the bullpen, refusing to use his best relievers in the most important innings. Jonathan Papelbon has been one of the best relievers in baseball this season, yet Francona refuses to bring him in earlier than the 9th inning until it is too late. Last night was a prime example: with the Sox up 5-3 in the 8th and the top of the order coming up for the Yankees, Francona chose to go with struggling Mike Timlin and Javier Lopez, a loogy with so little stuff the Sox were willing to enter a series against the Yanks without a lefty in the bullpen rather than throw this stiff out there.
Predictably, those guys blew it, leaving Papelbon to come in with the bases loaded, no outs, and Jason Giambi coming up.
Let me preempt all of the responses here: Papelbon was certainly rested enough to go both innings, especially since he hadn't pitched since last Wednesday when he needed just 6 pitches to pick up his 32nd save against Detroit.
Papelbon has also demonstrated his ability to pitch more than one inning repeatedly. For pitches 31 onward, opponents are hitting .083 / .267 / .083 with no runs scored.
Francona needs to get out of the mindset that Papelbon is the closer and only comes in to start the 9th inning. Papelbon is the best pitcher in the bullpen and needs to be used in the most crucial spots. That's not always the 9th inning with no one on and a lead.

Timlin needs to look in the mirror

Going into the Yankees series, Mike Timlin called out the Red Sox offense for not rising to the challenge like the pitchers:

“I’m not calling anybody out, but we haven’t scored a whole lot,” Timlin said. “We’re pitching well, we’re holding teams down, and they’re doing the same to us. It’s not that they’re outpitching us or we’re outpitching them, it’s just right now we’re not hitting as well as we’re pitching.”
But maybe Timlin ought to look in the mirror when assigning blame.
Here are Timlin's numbers since July 1:
19 2/3 innings pitched, 7.32 ERA, 0.83 K/BB , and 1.54WHIP.

No one with those numbers ought to be criticizing anyone. Unlike Timlin, the offense didn't exactly go south against the Yankees either:


Hitters    AB    H    BB    Avg    Obp
Ramirez    11    8    7    .727    .833     
Loretta    15    7    3    .467    .556     
Lowell     13    6    2    .462    .533     
Cora       11    4    1    .364    .417     
Hinske      9    3    1    .333    .400     
Ortiz      16    5    2    .313    .389     
Youkilis   17    4    3    .235    .350     
Lopez       8    2    0    .250    .250     
Crisp       9    1    1    .111    .200     
Mirabelli  10    2    0    .200    .200     
Pena       14    1    0    .071    .071     
Kapler      4    0    0    .000    .000     
Gonzalez    3    0    0    .000    .000 
Totals    140   43   20    .307    .394

A day for the record books?

Another pasting at the hands of the Yanks, one that saw the Sox set several uncomfortable firsts:
It was the first time the Red Sox had allowed 12 or more runs in three straight games.

Josh Beckett set a personal mark, allowing 9 free passes to Yankee hitters. The last Red Sox pitcher to walk as many as nine batters in a game was Roger Moret, had nine against the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 22, 1975. Moret could at least take something away from that game, however - he pitched a complete game to get the nine, and he got the win.
Beckett's line: 5 2/3 innings, nine walks, nine earned runs and one very hard look in the mirror.

"It's unacceptable," Beckett said. "It's brutal. I couldn't get ahead or put anybody away. When you don't execute your pitches and you're walking guys on top of that, it's going to be a long day."

Struggles at the plate led to some curious lineup moves:
Shortstop Alex Gonzalez, just 1 for 17 on the homestand and 3 for 35 (.086) in his last 10 games, sat for the second straight game, replaced by Alex Cora, a lefthanded hitter asked to face the lefthanded Randy Johnson. And center fielder Coco Crisp, 1 for 9 in Friday's doubleheader, sat in favor of Gabe Kapler, even though Kapler was hitless in five career at-bats against Johnson entering the game.

Ass pitching gets Rudy designated for ass.

Rudy Seanez was designated for assignment yesterday, ending a painful experiment. Seanez, who was signed to a one-year, $2.1 million contract over the winter, struggled with his consistency this season and didn’t come close to duplicating his 2005 with San Diego (7-1, 2.69 ERA). The 37-year-old right-hander went 2-1 with a 4.82 ERA in 41 appearances for the Sox.
``We stayed late last night to go over all the possible scenarios, what we should do, what we wanted to do, needed to do," Terry Francona said. ``If we didn't get a fresh arm, we'd put some people in jeopardy. It wasn't something we enjoyed when we told him.

Kason Gabbard, scratched from his start for Pawtucket Friday, now looms as a logical candidate to start Tuesday in Anaheim, Calif., after Kyle Snyder, who had tentatively been penciled in for that start, was used in relief in each of the last two days. Gabbard was pulled from the bus and spent the night in a motel, getting picked up in the morning by a Sox staffer.

Abreu redux

In 18 games with the Yankees, Bobby Abreu is hitting .400 / .494 / .529 and went 4 for 5 with a double, a walk, a stolen base, and a run in game 1 yesterday. In the nightcap Abreu went 2 for 4 with 2 walks and 2 RBIs.

All of which raises the question: should the Red Sox have gotten him?

Obviously the money was the reason the Sox didn't want him, but it wasn't just his staight salary. Factoring in the luxury tax, Abreu would have cost the Sox close to $27.7 million for the rest of this season and next.

Any team that is over the luxury tax threshold ($136.5 million in 2006) for the third or fourth time in 2006 pays the tax at a 40 percent rate. So the total hit for Abreu in 2007 would be $15 million salary plus $2 million option buyout (if not exercised) plus a $4.6 million tax hit (if the tax rate is 40 percent and the club is over the threshold) for a total of approximately $21.6 million. Add that to the 2006 cost and you are talking about approximately $27.7 million for about a season and a third of Abreu.

Trying to deal with Detroit?

The Globe reports that the Red Sox, seeking to take advantage of Detroit's need for a second baseman after Placido Polanco separated his left shoulder here Tuesday night, offered Mark Loretta to the Tigers for pitching help, but could not strike a deal.
After Loretta cleared waivers, the Sox asked the Tigers for two players out of starters Zach Miner and Wilfredo Ledezma and lefthanded reliever Jamie Walker.
It is notable that the Sox were willing to part with Loretta, who turned 35 Monday and is in the last year of his contract. Loretta had three doubles in Game 1 of yesterday's doubleheader and also doubled in two runs in the second inning of the second game.

Apparently the Sox believe top prospect Dustin Pedroia is ready for a promotion to the big leagues. Pedroia came into last night's game for Triple A Pawtucket batting .310 / .389 / .423 in 108 games, the sixth-highest average and third highest OBP in the International League. He also has 30 doubles for Pawtucket, which ranks third in the IL, and had struck out just 27 times in 413 at-bats.

Hinske a bright spot

New arrival Eric Hinske wasted little time endearing himself to the Nation yesterday, hitting 3 doubles and getting a standing ovation his 4th time up.
For all the talk about how his play has dropped since his Rookie of the Year season in 2002, Hinske has played well this season. In just 197 at-bats for the Jays, he had 12 home runs and was slugging .513. I'd like to see him start against pretty much every righthanded pitcher, filling in for Mike Lowell, Wily Mo Pena, Coco Crisp, and Kevin Youkilis. Not to suggest he should play center, but the sox could start Wily Mo in center and Hinske in right, given his numbers against righties: .301 / .383 / .590, compared to how some of those other guys have performed the last 2 months:


             AVG     OBP     SLG
Crisp       .281    .338    .410
Lowell      .242    .316    .418
Youkilis    .268    .346    .386

"We got our asses totally kicked..."

For some reason I find myself thinking of Jim Mora after quite a first day of the series.
The Sox were trounced 12-4, in the day game, and carried a 10-7 lead into the seventh inning of Game 2 before crumbling in humiliating fashion. Craig Hansen left with the bases loaded and one out and Mike Timlin allowed all three runners to score, as well as four more. “I feel like somebody just kicked my ass,” said an exhausted David Ortiz, who hit his 43rd home run in the ninth inning off Mariano Rivera. "Shit, someone did!”

It was still the seventh inning of Game 2 when the center-field scoreboard flashed the news that the last T would be pulling out of the Kenmore Square station at 12:35 a.m. At 12:19, with the game still in the top of the eighth, it already had become the longest nine-inning regular-season game in major league history. The nine innings took 4 hours 45 minutes, breaking the former mark of 4:27 set by the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants on Oct. 5, 2001.

Jon Lester was charged with seven runs on eight hits in 3 2/3 innings; the kid who began his big league career 5-0 has an ERA of 9.88 in his last three starts. Lester's last solid outing came on July 18, when he tossed eight shutout innings, allowing just one hit in a 1-0 win over the Kansas City Royals. Since, he has struggled big time.

His problem seems to be that, especially early in a game, he has no pitch he can count on for a strike whenever he has to get a pitch over the plate. After getting a strike out/caught stealing double play to escape the first, he blew up in the second, needing 41 pitches while allowing five runs.

Pitcher Jason Johnson was designated for assignment yesterday. The Sox have 10 days to trade Johnson, place him on waivers, or give him his unconditional release. Johnson would have to give his permission to be outrighted to Pawtucket, so presumably he will seek employment elsewhere.

Last night, perhaps anticipating that help would be needed, Pawtucket's Kason Gabbard was scratched before his scheduled start.

Starters v. Relievers, Part II

The other day we were looking at how the Red Sox starters and relievers compare. The results were rather disconcerting: Rudy Seanez has better numbers than the starters?
We watch the games, we know he sucks. Something must be wrong. A few readers wrote in with some ideas. We'll start with inherited runners. Basically when a reliever lets an inherited runner score, that run is charged to whoever let the runner get on base and the reliever's ERA goes unscathed. Some readers saw this as giving Rudy Seanez a free pass for sucking and allowing tons of inherited runners to score.

We could just look at how many inherited runners a reliever strands vs how many inherited runners he has to deal with. A problem with that approach is that it doesn't make any distinction between entering the game with a runner on first and 2 outs and entering the game with a runner on third and no outs. Obviously we want to give a reliever more credit for succeeding in the later situation.

Here are the Red Sox relievers sorted by inherited runs prevented:

NAME                  IP       IRP
Craig Hansen          28.7     1.8
Mike Timlin           46       1.4
Keith Foulke          32       0.9
Jonathan Papelbon     61       0.8
Jermaine Van Buren    11.7     0.5
Kyle Snyder           28.3    -0.1
Lenny Dinardo         25.3    -1.3
Javier Lopez           8.7    -1.9
David Riske            9.7    -2.5
Manny Delcarmen       37.3    -4.1
Rudy Seanez           45.3    -6.6
Julian Tavarez        59.7    -6.9

IRP is a stat that looks at the situation when a reliever enters the game and how many runs a league average reliever would allow before getting out of the inning and subtracts the number of runs the reliever actually gave up. What's left are runs that would have scored on average but didn't because of the pitcher's work. Negative numbers are the number of runs that reliever let score that wouldn't have scored with the league average reliever in there. (#s are for 2006).

Sox acquire Hinske

The Red Sox have reached a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays for cornerman Eric Hinske for a player to be named and cash considerations, including the remaining $1.4 million on his salary this season.
Hinske, 29, is hitting .294 / .376 / .575 against righthanders, better than any active Sox except David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and Kevin Youkilis.
He began the season as part of a right-field platoon with Alex Rios and hit .323 (10 for 31) in April, though none of his hits went for extra bases. With Rios emerging as a star, Hinske gradually lost playing time. He has appeared in just nine games this month, going 4 for 24 (.167). Overall, he's hitting .264 / .353 / .513.
Because the deal involves over $1 million, it requires the approval of the Commissioner.

Pena swiped from the Yanks

In another move, the Sox strengthened their own depth while weakening the Yankees by signing Carlos Pena away. The 28-year old has above average power and may remind some Sox fans of Mark Bellhorn with his patience at the plate and habits for walks and strikeouts.
Peña, who is expected to report today to Triple A Pawtucket, was released by Detroit in March and signed with the Yankees April 15. Peña was leading the Columbus Clippers, the Yankees' Triple A affiliate, in home runs (19) and RBIs (66) while batting .260. But yesterday, Pena exercised a clause in his contract that allowed him to ask for his release to pursue a major league deal. He was hitting .260 in the International League with 19 home runs, 66 RBI and a .370 on-base percentage.
As recently as 2004, Peña hit 27 home runs and drove in 82 runs for the Tigers and appeared on the verge of fulfilling his considerable promise. But last season, he took another step backward, batting just .235 with 18 home runs and 44 RBIs, striking out 95 times in 260 at-bats, and was sent down to Toledo.
Team sources said Pena is expected to make his way to the big league roster no later than Sept. 1, when rosters can be expanded to as many as 40 players.

All's Wells now

David Wells gave the Sox their second-straight solid start, pitching a sharp 6 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on 10 hits, striking out three and walking only one.

"He just quieted things down a little bit," Sox manager Terry Francona said. "The magnitude of any game isn't too big for him, and he just goes out and competes and throws what he throws for strikes. When he's healthy enough to do it, he's pretty good."

Wells has been better with each of his starts since returning from the DL. If the big fella can continue to give the team quality starts it will go a long way toward keeping the Sox in the race.

Craig Hansen relieved Wells and pitched 1 1/3 innings before Jonathan Papelbon picked up his 32nd save by pitching a perfect ninth. The Sox picked up a game on the Yankees, who lost, 3-2.

Around the horn

David Ortiz began last night without a home run in his last six games (20 at-bats), but that streak ended when he hit his 42d home run in the fifth inning. That was the longest he had gone without a home run since May 20-30.

Jason Johnson will pitch the first game of tomorrow's doubleheader, with rookie Jon Lester going in the nightcap. Francona expects the Yankees to go with Chien-Ming Wang in the first game and Sidney Ponson in the second

The last time the Yankees came here for a five-game set, in 1959, the Sox swept all five.

Coco Crisp pushed extended his hitting streak to seven games with a 2-for-3 performance, including the go-ahead two-run double off the Green Monster in the sixth inning, in last night's 6-4 triumph over Detroit at Fenway Park. During the current homestand, Crisp is batting .345 (10-for-29) with five RBI and five runs. He has raised his batting average to a season-best .281, which is just three points behind Yankees leadoff hitter and center fielder Damon.

Two of the relievers the Red Sox had interest in trading for recently - LaTroy Hawkins and Scott Schoeneweis - will not be joining the team.
The Sox have been looking to bolster the bullpen and now will have to turn to a remaining pool of relief talent that is believed to be on the shallow side.
According to multiple major league sources, the Red Sox were the most aggressive of the three suitors pursuing Hawkins. Yesterday, however, the Baltimore Orioles pulled their 33-year-old righty off the market.
Schoeneweis, meanwhile, was sent from Toronto to Cincinnati for a player to be named or cash.
The New York Yankees and Texas Rangers also were poking around about Hawkins, who probably would not have inspired a great deal of hope to Sox followers given his numbers.
The opposition was hitting Hawkins (1-2, 4.73 ERA) at a .298 clip entering last night. He retired the one batter he faced in the O's 3-2 win in New York against the Yankees.

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