Was anyone else surprised when the Red Sox had Kevin Youkilis bunt in the 9th inning last night? Loyal readers are well aware of my dislike of the sacrifice bunt, but this was a situation where even my inane-stat-driven prejudices seem to argue in favor of the bunt. Let's recap:
The game is tied going into the bottom of the ninth. After David Ortiz doubles off Mariano Rivera, the Yanks elect to walk Manny Ramirez. Probably a good idea considering that Manny hit .727 with an .833 on base percentage this series (only 3 outs!). With the winning run already in scoring position, Francona elects to try to sacrifice the runners along.
There are several good reasons to do this - for one it removes the double play possibility. It also statistically increases the odds of scoring a run. Check those expected runs tables: while sacrificing never increases the amount of total runs you will score, moving a runner from second to third with no outs is the only time a sacrifice increases the chance of scoring at least one run.
But that assumes you have someone coming up who will be able to drive the run in from third. Following Youkilis, the Sox had Mike Lowell, Gabe Kapler, and Doug Mirabelli. Given that Youkilis is the only player besides Manny and Ortiz that is hitting the ball well right now, wouldn't it have been better to let Youkilis, Lowell, and Eric Hinske (batting for Kapler) try to drive the run in with a single?
The only time to bunt?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment