In 18 games with the Yankees, Bobby Abreu is hitting .400 / .494 / .529 and went 4 for 5 with a double, a walk, a stolen base, and a run in game 1 yesterday. In the nightcap Abreu went 2 for 4 with 2 walks and 2 RBIs.
All of which raises the question: should the Red Sox have gotten him?
Obviously the money was the reason the Sox didn't want him, but it wasn't just his staight salary. Factoring in the luxury tax, Abreu would have cost the Sox close to $27.7 million for the rest of this season and next.
Any team that is over the luxury tax threshold ($136.5 million in 2006) for the third or fourth time in 2006 pays the tax at a 40 percent rate. So the total hit for Abreu in 2007 would be $15 million salary plus $2 million option buyout (if not exercised) plus a $4.6 million tax hit (if the tax rate is 40 percent and the club is over the threshold) for a total of approximately $21.6 million. Add that to the 2006 cost and you are talking about approximately $27.7 million for about a season and a third of Abreu.
Abreu redux
Trying to deal with Detroit?
The Globe reports that the Red Sox, seeking to take advantage of Detroit's need for a second baseman after Placido Polanco separated his left shoulder here Tuesday night, offered Mark Loretta to the Tigers for pitching help, but could not strike a deal.
After Loretta cleared waivers, the Sox asked the Tigers for two players out of starters Zach Miner and Wilfredo Ledezma and lefthanded reliever Jamie Walker.
It is notable that the Sox were willing to part with Loretta, who turned 35 Monday and is in the last year of his contract. Loretta had three doubles in Game 1 of yesterday's doubleheader and also doubled in two runs in the second inning of the second game.
Apparently the Sox believe top prospect Dustin Pedroia is ready for a promotion to the big leagues. Pedroia came into last night's game for Triple A Pawtucket batting .310 / .389 / .423 in 108 games, the sixth-highest average and third highest OBP in the International League. He also has 30 doubles for Pawtucket, which ranks third in the IL, and had struck out just 27 times in 413 at-bats.
Hinske a bright spot
New arrival Eric Hinske wasted little time endearing himself to the Nation yesterday, hitting 3 doubles and getting a standing ovation his 4th time up.
For all the talk about how his play has dropped since his Rookie of the Year season in 2002, Hinske has played well this season. In just 197 at-bats for the Jays, he had 12 home runs and was slugging .513. I'd like to see him start against pretty much every righthanded pitcher, filling in for Mike Lowell, Wily Mo Pena, Coco Crisp, and Kevin Youkilis. Not to suggest he should play center, but the sox could start Wily Mo in center and Hinske in right, given his numbers against righties: .301 / .383 / .590, compared to how some of those other guys have performed the last 2 months:
AVG OBP SLG
Crisp .281 .338 .410
Lowell .242 .316 .418
Youkilis .268 .346 .386
"We got our asses totally kicked..."
For some reason I find myself thinking of Jim Mora after quite a first day of the series.
The Sox were trounced 12-4, in the day game, and carried a 10-7 lead into the seventh inning of Game 2 before crumbling in humiliating fashion. Craig Hansen left with the bases loaded and one out and Mike Timlin allowed all three runners to score, as well as four more. “I feel like somebody just kicked my ass,” said an exhausted David Ortiz, who hit his 43rd home run in the ninth inning off Mariano Rivera. "Shit, someone did!”
It was still the seventh inning of Game 2 when the center-field scoreboard flashed the news that the last T would be pulling out of the Kenmore Square station at 12:35 a.m. At 12:19, with the game still in the top of the eighth, it already had become the longest nine-inning regular-season game in major league history. The nine innings took 4 hours 45 minutes, breaking the former mark of 4:27 set by the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants on Oct. 5, 2001.
Jon Lester was charged with seven runs on eight hits in 3 2/3 innings; the kid who began his big league career 5-0 has an ERA of 9.88 in his last three starts. Lester's last solid outing came on July 18, when he tossed eight shutout innings, allowing just one hit in a 1-0 win over the Kansas City Royals. Since, he has struggled big time.
His problem seems to be that, especially early in a game, he has no pitch he can count on for a strike whenever he has to get a pitch over the plate. After getting a strike out/caught stealing double play to escape the first, he blew up in the second, needing 41 pitches while allowing five runs.
Pitcher Jason Johnson was designated for assignment yesterday. The Sox have 10 days to trade Johnson, place him on waivers, or give him his unconditional release. Johnson would have to give his permission to be outrighted to Pawtucket, so presumably he will seek employment elsewhere.
Last night, perhaps anticipating that help would be needed, Pawtucket's Kason Gabbard was scratched before his scheduled start.
Starters v. Relievers, Part II
The other day we were looking at how the Red Sox starters and relievers compare. The results were rather disconcerting: Rudy Seanez has better numbers than the starters?
We watch the games, we know he sucks. Something must be wrong. A few readers wrote in with some ideas. We'll start with inherited runners. Basically when a reliever lets an inherited runner score, that run is charged to whoever let the runner get on base and the reliever's ERA goes unscathed. Some readers saw this as giving Rudy Seanez a free pass for sucking and allowing tons of inherited runners to score.
We could just look at how many inherited runners a reliever strands vs how many inherited runners he has to deal with. A problem with that approach is that it doesn't make any distinction between entering the game with a runner on first and 2 outs and entering the game with a runner on third and no outs. Obviously we want to give a reliever more credit for succeeding in the later situation.
Here are the Red Sox relievers sorted by inherited runs prevented:
NAME IP IRP
Craig Hansen 28.7 1.8
Mike Timlin 46 1.4
Keith Foulke 32 0.9
Jonathan Papelbon 61 0.8
Jermaine Van Buren 11.7 0.5
Kyle Snyder 28.3 -0.1
Lenny Dinardo 25.3 -1.3
Javier Lopez 8.7 -1.9
David Riske 9.7 -2.5
Manny Delcarmen 37.3 -4.1
Rudy Seanez 45.3 -6.6
Julian Tavarez 59.7 -6.9IRP is a stat that looks at the situation when a reliever enters the game and how many runs a league average reliever would allow before getting out of the inning and subtracts the number of runs the reliever actually gave up. What's left are runs that would have scored on average but didn't because of the pitcher's work. Negative numbers are the number of runs that reliever let score that wouldn't have scored with the league average reliever in there. (#s are for 2006).
Sox acquire Hinske
The Red Sox have reached a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays for cornerman Eric Hinske for a player to be named and cash considerations, including the remaining $1.4 million on his salary this season.
Hinske, 29, is hitting .294 / .376 / .575 against righthanders, better than any active Sox except David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and Kevin Youkilis.
He began the season as part of a right-field platoon with Alex Rios and hit .323 (10 for 31) in April, though none of his hits went for extra bases. With Rios emerging as a star, Hinske gradually lost playing time. He has appeared in just nine games this month, going 4 for 24 (.167). Overall, he's hitting .264 / .353 / .513.
Because the deal involves over $1 million, it requires the approval of the Commissioner.
Pena swiped from the Yanks
In another move, the Sox strengthened their own depth while weakening the Yankees by signing Carlos Pena away. The 28-year old has above average power and may remind some Sox fans of Mark Bellhorn with his patience at the plate and habits for walks and strikeouts.
Peña, who is expected to report today to Triple A Pawtucket, was released by Detroit in March and signed with the Yankees April 15. Peña was leading the Columbus Clippers, the Yankees' Triple A affiliate, in home runs (19) and RBIs (66) while batting .260. But yesterday, Pena exercised a clause in his contract that allowed him to ask for his release to pursue a major league deal. He was hitting .260 in the International League with 19 home runs, 66 RBI and a .370 on-base percentage.
As recently as 2004, Peña hit 27 home runs and drove in 82 runs for the Tigers and appeared on the verge of fulfilling his considerable promise. But last season, he took another step backward, batting just .235 with 18 home runs and 44 RBIs, striking out 95 times in 260 at-bats, and was sent down to Toledo.
Team sources said Pena is expected to make his way to the big league roster no later than Sept. 1, when rosters can be expanded to as many as 40 players.
All's Wells now
David Wells gave the Sox their second-straight solid start, pitching a sharp 6 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on 10 hits, striking out three and walking only one.
"He just quieted things down a little bit," Sox manager Terry Francona said. "The magnitude of any game isn't too big for him, and he just goes out and competes and throws what he throws for strikes. When he's healthy enough to do it, he's pretty good."
Wells has been better with each of his starts since returning from the DL. If the big fella can continue to give the team quality starts it will go a long way toward keeping the Sox in the race.
Craig Hansen relieved Wells and pitched 1 1/3 innings before Jonathan Papelbon picked up his 32nd save by pitching a perfect ninth. The Sox picked up a game on the Yankees, who lost, 3-2.
Around the horn
David Ortiz began last night without a home run in his last six games (20 at-bats), but that streak ended when he hit his 42d home run in the fifth inning. That was the longest he had gone without a home run since May 20-30.
Jason Johnson will pitch the first game of tomorrow's doubleheader, with rookie Jon Lester going in the nightcap. Francona expects the Yankees to go with Chien-Ming Wang in the first game and Sidney Ponson in the second
The last time the Yankees came here for a five-game set, in 1959, the Sox swept all five.
Coco Crisp pushed extended his hitting streak to seven games with a 2-for-3 performance, including the go-ahead two-run double off the Green Monster in the sixth inning, in last night's 6-4 triumph over Detroit at Fenway Park. During the current homestand, Crisp is batting .345 (10-for-29) with five RBI and five runs. He has raised his batting average to a season-best .281, which is just three points behind Yankees leadoff hitter and center fielder Damon.
Two of the relievers the Red Sox had interest in trading for recently - LaTroy Hawkins and Scott Schoeneweis - will not be joining the team.
The Sox have been looking to bolster the bullpen and now will have to turn to a remaining pool of relief talent that is believed to be on the shallow side.
According to multiple major league sources, the Red Sox were the most aggressive of the three suitors pursuing Hawkins. Yesterday, however, the Baltimore Orioles pulled their 33-year-old righty off the market.
Schoeneweis, meanwhile, was sent from Toronto to Cincinnati for a player to be named or cash.
The New York Yankees and Texas Rangers also were poking around about Hawkins, who probably would not have inspired a great deal of hope to Sox followers given his numbers.
The opposition was hitting Hawkins (1-2, 4.73 ERA) at a .298 clip entering last night. He retired the one batter he faced in the O's 3-2 win in New York against the Yankees.
Starters v. relievers
Jerry Remy noted last night that the Tigers' bullpen has a better ERA than the starters, and that getting to the Detroit bullpen isn't the same advantage as it is against other teams. That raises the question: how do the Red Sox starters compare to the bullpen? Well, here are the overall numbers:
IP HR/9 H/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
Starters 683.2 1.33 9.77 2.96 6.77 1.41 4.91
Relievers 354.2 1.04 9.07 3.15 7.05 1.36 4.11
As you can see, the guys we're trotting out every fifth day are not getting it done, compared with the guys who have to come in and clean it up. They are giving up more hits and homers, and even with less walks have allowed more base runners. The home runs are the real killer here, especially with those extra baserunners. Keep in mind that these numbers are adjusted for innings pitched, so while David Pauley's 7.88 ERA might seem like it will unfairly skew things against the starters, he's only pitched 16 innings and hardly effects things compared to Josh Beckett's over 150 innings of 5.00 ERA.
A closer look reveals some even more surprising results. Take a look at how everyone's favorite whipping boy compares to the starters:
IP HR/9 H/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
Starters 683.2 1.33 9.77 2.96 6.77 1.41 4.91
Rudy Seanez 44 1.23 9.41 4.09 8.8 1.5 3.89
That's right folks, the sox prospects actually improve when Rudy Seanez takes the mound.
One final note – here's how the numbers stack up for the heir apparent to the closer role vs. whipping boy number two:
IP HR/9 H/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
Julian Tavarez 59.2 1.22 10.49 3.8 5.43 1.58 4.98
Craig Hansen 27.1 0.66 10.96 2.66 6.91 1.5 5.27
Somehow, despite giving up twice as many jacks, walking more and striking out less, Julian Tavarez has a lower ERA than Craig Hansen. This may be where DIPS comes in: when comparing pitchers, look at defense-independent stats first, they remove more of the luck from the equation. Homers, Ks, and walks are all controlled by the pitcher. Hansen dominates Tavarez here, but he's given up more hits and has a worse ERA. Who is likely to be the better pitcher going forward? Obvious.
Not time to Wake yet
The long-shot possibility of Tim Wakefield coming off the disabled list to face the New York Yankees in the finale of the Red Sox' longest homestand of the season Monday was all but taken off the board yesterday.
In his first throwing session off a mound in nearly a month, the knuckleballer continued to experience discomfort.
Wakefield, who hasn't pitched since July 17 due to a stress fracture in his rib cage, said that the throwing session proved to him that the injury has begun to heal but still has a ways to go.
"I threw off the mound without any problem," Wakefield said. "It's there but not as sharp of a pain as before."
The 40-year-old said that he's trying to return to duty as soon as possible but said he can't afford to come back too soon and aggravate the injury.
"It's frustrating to me because I want to be on the field," he said. "I feel I should be farther along but I have to listen to the doctors and listen to my body. It's a slow process. It's not a muscle injury. It's a bone injury and you have to wait until it heals."
Here's a look at Wake's numbers this season:
IP HR/9 H/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERADavid Wells is expected to pitch Monday's finale of the five-game series against the Yankees instead.
Tim Wakefield 119.2 1.06 8.08 3.25 6.02 1.25 4.14
Other roster issues
With Keith Foulke's status undetermined due to recurring back problems, the Red Sox opted to bolster their taxed bullpen prior to last night's 7-4 loss to Detroit by recalling left-hander Craig Breslow from Triple-A Pawtucket.
Veteran catcher Corky Miller was designated for assignment to create room on the 25-man roster for Breslow, who made one scoreless appearance for the Sox (1 innings) on July 14 against Oakland before throwing 1 scoreless innings last night. Breslow, who was 5-1 with seven saves and a 3.00 ERA in 35 appearances for the PawSox, was selected over Javier Lopez because of his ability to pitch multiple innings, if necessary.
"If we wanted matchups, we could've gone with Lopez but we need guys who can pitch innings," Francona said. "We don't need a third of an inning, we need innings."
Posada frustrated
Yankee catcher Jorge Posada is growing more and more frustrated with his struggles at the plate, the NY Daily News is reporting:
It has been more than a week since Jorge Posada got a hit and the Yankee catcher is beginning to show the frustration. It was on display as he popped up to end yesterday's 5-3 loss to the Angels at the Stadium, as he flung his bat and fired his helmet to the ground.
By going 0-for-4 yesterday, Posada extended his hitless streak to 25 at-bats. Since July 1, he is hitting an anemic .226 / .299 / .400.
"I'm frustrated," said Posada, whose average has fallen 22 points to .267. "I am working on it. It happens. I can't say that I feel good."
Posada said he has reviewed his swing on video and with others, but has found no clues. No one could identify anything mechanically amiss in his swing.
Double plays?
Everyone gets annoyed when a player on their favorite team comes up in a big situation and grounds into a double play, but who are the worst culprits here? Here's the 10 guys who've grounded into the most:
1. Miguel Tejada BAL 27
2. Mike Young TEX 24
3. Victor Martinez CLE 24
4. Adrian Gonzalez SDN 21
5. Garrett Atkins COL 21
6. Troy Glaus TOR 21
7. Alex Rodriguez NYA 19
8. Joe Mauer MIN 19
9. Lyle Overbay TOR 19
10. Preston Wilson HOU 19
The above doesn't take opportunity into account, though. Here are the 10 guys who ground into the most double plays per opportunity (plate appearance w/ less than 2 outs and a runner on 1st, 1st and 2nd, or loaded):
1. Julio Franco NYN 39.1%
2. Jason Kubel MIN 34.1%
3. Kendry Morales ANA 29.4%
4. Rondell White MIN 27.9%
5. Lew Ford MIN 26.7%
6. Joe Randa PIT 26.3%
7. Ron Paulino PIT 26.2%
8. Daryle Ward WAS 26.1%
9. Eric Young SDN 25.0%
10. Paul Bako KCA 25.0%
Expected Runs
I thought I'd throw the expected runs tables up here, since that conversation happened before the site was active. As you recall, the table on the left shows the average amount of runs an average MLB team scores in the given situations. The chart on the right shows the chances of scoring at least one run. The utility of sacrificing or trying to take an extra base can be seen by comparing the before and after expected runs. To find the break even success rate for stealing, use this formula:
X = (A – C) / (B – C)
X=Break even point; A=Expected runs before attempt; B=Expected runs after successful attempt; C=Expected runs after failed attempt.
Back to Earth Bronson?
Perhaps even National League hitters are starting to figure out Bronson Arroyo. After starting the season with an amazing run of great pitching (and hitting) it appears that the bloom is off the rose. Over the last 2 months, Arroyo's ERA is 4.91 and he has only one win over 12 starts. Over that same span, Wily Mo Pena is hitting .311 / .364 / .672 with 5 jacks and 16 RBI.
Pitching matchups v. Detroit
Here's a look at the pitching matchups for the Detroit series:
Tonight Josh Beckett (4.92 ERA, 7.38 K/9, 2.83 BB/9) takes on Nate Robertson (3.82 ERA, 5.95 K/9 2.97 BB/9). Tomorrow Curt Schilling (3.89 / 8.05 / 1.19) against Jeremy Bonderman (3.76 / 8.60 / 2.56). Wednesday David Wells (5.09 / 6.01 / 2.00 since his return), vs Justin Verlander (2.95 / 6.16 / 2.44)
Around the horn
The Red Sox had been hoping that they would have an opportunity to rest some of the bullpen this weekend, but Jon Lester demonstrated right away that was not going to happen yesterday, needing 60 pitches to get through only two innings. ``After that first couple of innings," acknowledged Terry Francona, ``you're hoping he goes five. That pitch count was soaring." Lester has a 4.91 ERA over the last month and has given up 3.6 walks per 9 innings - way too many free passes.
Doug Mirabelli has homered in each of his last three starts since missing five days with a twisted ankle. Javy Lopez gets the start tonight, however. Wily Mo Peña, meanwhile, has nine home runs -- as many as Bronson Arroyo has wins in Cincinnati -- including three in the last five games. Pena is hitting .311/.364/.672 over the last month.
Jonathan Papelbon's 0.94 ERA is a pretty sweet number, but let's not forget that he has blown five of his 35 save opportunities, all since June 1 (which is more than any other AL pitcher in that time frame. He does have a 1.36 ERA over that period, though, and although his walks have gone up slightly, he's still striking out 4.22 guys for every one he walks. After 24 pitches Saturday and 31 yesterday, Papelbon will not be available tonight.
Trot Nixon is eligible to be activated from the 15-day DL tomorrow, but the right fielder is still weeks away from returning from a strained right biceps. Nixon began hitting off a tee yesterday, but he’s still wearing a brace that prevents him from extending his arm too far. “His swinging will be controlled,” Francona said. “With an injury like that, the last thing we want to do is have him try to do too much.”
Thanks Baltimore
Thanks to the Orioles for getting the Sox back on track after a disasterous sweep by Kansas City. Though it was assumed the Red Sox would clean up on Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Baltimore, they went only 6-7 during a 13-game stretch against the four worst teams in the American League. Now the Tigers and Yankees come to Fenway Park for eight games over the next week. Sox fans who were ready to panic can digest this: two years ago yesterday, the 2004 Red Sox were 63-50, 10-1/2 games behind the first-place New York Yankees. Now the team is just one game back, thanks to Jared Weaver doing what his brother Jeff could never do - pitching well in Yankee Stadium. The younger Weaver gave up just three hits and struck out eight and is still unbeaten in his rookie season.
