2006 Red Sox = 2005 Yankees?

Obviously the main story of this horrifying weekend is the performance by the Red Sox pitching staff. Despite solid outings from David Wells and Curt Schilling, the rotation totally blew it, as they have been doing for quite some time now.
The Red Sox used seven pitchers over this weekend who they expected would play important roles this year: Schilling, Wells, Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, Keith Foulke, Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez. Those pitchers threw 28 2/3 innings, allowed 20 runs, all earned (6.28 ERA), struck out 23 men, walked 16 and allowed just two home runs. Not exactly what you're looking for, but not dreadful considering how bad Beckett's perfomance was -9 walks in 5 2/3 innings?!?

The Sox used seven other guys, including both starters last Friday. Those pitchers threw 17 1/3 innings, allowed 29 runs, 28 earned (14.54 ERA), walked 15, struck out 17 and allowed five homers.

As Joe Sheehan points out, the Sox are last year's Yankees, but without Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small. Before they were acquired by their respective teams, there was virtually no difference between Jason Johnson and Chicon or Kyle Snyder and Small.
Here are their numbers up to the time they were signed by NY and Boston:

Player      ERA    K/9     BB/9    HR/9    K/BB
Johnson    5.96    3.7     2.6     1.17    1.45
Snyder     5.91    4.4     2.3     1.09    1.88
Chacon     5.20    6.3     4.8     1.34    1.31
Small      6.35    5.2     5.2     2.38    1.00

As you can see, the Yankees got over 150 innings of quality starting pitching while the Sox got a steaming pile of shit.

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Snyder on short rest

Despite throwing in the first game of Friday's doubleheader and in Saturday's game, Kyle Snyder will make tonight's start against the Angels in Anaheim, Calif. His recent workload -- 3 2/3 innings in the series -- plus the fact that he hasn't started in a month (July 26 in Oakland) might prove problematic for Snyder, especially considering he did not get a chance to fly ahead of the team to the West Coast. The Red Sox' other option as a starter was Kason Gabbard, but Terry Francona wanted to give the chance to Snyder, who has gone 2-2 with a 5.66 ERA as a starter with Boston.
“That doesn’t bother me,” said Snyder, who allowed three runs in two innings Friday and no runs and no hits in 1 2/3 innings Saturday. “I’ve spent a lot of time on commercial flights with two connections at a time and I’ve thrown some of my best games then. I’ll get plenty of rest. It’s a night game and I’ll be ready to go.”

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Where have you gone...Matt Clement?

For all those Red Sox fans who ripped Matt Clement - wouldn't it be nice to have him available to make a start or two here?
Here is a look at Clement's numbers since July 1, 2005, as compared to some of the guys the Sox have trotted out there to take his place:

Name           ERA     K/9     BB/9    HR/9
Matt Clement   5.09    6.64    3.72    0.91
Jason Johnson  7.36    5.52    3.99    0.92
Kyle Snyder    5.34    8.16    2.53    1.97
David Pauley   7.88    5.62    3.38    0.56
Jon Lester     4.72    6.84    4.60    0.83

The only person here with better numbers is Jon Lester, but lets not forget that those numbers have dropped precipitously in the last month or so. Here's Lester since the All-Star break:

ERA     K/9      BB/9     HR/9
6.46    5.80     3.20     0.92

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The Wizard of Oz strikes again

"Then they have a Mexican win the World Series in two years. And they're saying he doesn't have experience, he never managed in baseball before. Well, too fucking bad."
--Ozzie Guillen

"What's the difference? No one knows the difference anyway."
--Guillen, after being reminded that he's Venezuelan.

The man is a walking quote machine.

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The only time to bunt?

Was anyone else surprised when the Red Sox had Kevin Youkilis bunt in the 9th inning last night? Loyal readers are well aware of my dislike of the sacrifice bunt, but this was a situation where even my inane-stat-driven prejudices seem to argue in favor of the bunt. Let's recap:
The game is tied going into the bottom of the ninth. After David Ortiz doubles off Mariano Rivera, the Yanks elect to walk Manny Ramirez. Probably a good idea considering that Manny hit .727 with an .833 on base percentage this series (only 3 outs!). With the winning run already in scoring position, Francona elects to try to sacrifice the runners along.
There are several good reasons to do this - for one it removes the double play possibility. It also statistically increases the odds of scoring a run. Check those expected runs tables: while sacrificing never increases the amount of total runs you will score, moving a runner from second to third with no outs is the only time a sacrifice increases the chance of scoring at least one run.
But that assumes you have someone coming up who will be able to drive the run in from third. Following Youkilis, the Sox had Mike Lowell, Gabe Kapler, and Doug Mirabelli. Given that Youkilis is the only player besides Manny and Ortiz that is hitting the ball well right now, wouldn't it have been better to let Youkilis, Lowell, and Eric Hinske (batting for Kapler) try to drive the run in with a single?

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Arroyo finally gets 10th win

Bronson Arroyo broke his 10-game drought with a 7-2 win over the Cardinals last Tuesday night to improve to 10-8 with a 3.45 ERA. Arroyo went 14-10 with the Red Sox last season, getting his 10th win Aug. 10, in his 23d start, some six days before he got his 10th win with the Reds this year, in his 26th start.

In a strange season, he became the first pitcher in major league history to win nine of his first 15 starts and then go winless in his next 10.

Arroyo's competition in the National League so far has been far inferior compared with his last season in the AL. The opposing starting pitchers he's faced currently have a 114-138 (.452) combined record; last year, his opponents were a combined 263-249 (.514).

As noted earlier, even N.L. lineups are starting to figure him out.

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Bullpen mismanaged again

Red Sox manager Terry Francona continues to mismanage the bullpen, refusing to use his best relievers in the most important innings. Jonathan Papelbon has been one of the best relievers in baseball this season, yet Francona refuses to bring him in earlier than the 9th inning until it is too late. Last night was a prime example: with the Sox up 5-3 in the 8th and the top of the order coming up for the Yankees, Francona chose to go with struggling Mike Timlin and Javier Lopez, a loogy with so little stuff the Sox were willing to enter a series against the Yanks without a lefty in the bullpen rather than throw this stiff out there.
Predictably, those guys blew it, leaving Papelbon to come in with the bases loaded, no outs, and Jason Giambi coming up.
Let me preempt all of the responses here: Papelbon was certainly rested enough to go both innings, especially since he hadn't pitched since last Wednesday when he needed just 6 pitches to pick up his 32nd save against Detroit.
Papelbon has also demonstrated his ability to pitch more than one inning repeatedly. For pitches 31 onward, opponents are hitting .083 / .267 / .083 with no runs scored.
Francona needs to get out of the mindset that Papelbon is the closer and only comes in to start the 9th inning. Papelbon is the best pitcher in the bullpen and needs to be used in the most crucial spots. That's not always the 9th inning with no one on and a lead.

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Timlin needs to look in the mirror

Going into the Yankees series, Mike Timlin called out the Red Sox offense for not rising to the challenge like the pitchers:

“I’m not calling anybody out, but we haven’t scored a whole lot,” Timlin said. “We’re pitching well, we’re holding teams down, and they’re doing the same to us. It’s not that they’re outpitching us or we’re outpitching them, it’s just right now we’re not hitting as well as we’re pitching.”
But maybe Timlin ought to look in the mirror when assigning blame.
Here are Timlin's numbers since July 1:
19 2/3 innings pitched, 7.32 ERA, 0.83 K/BB , and 1.54WHIP.

No one with those numbers ought to be criticizing anyone. Unlike Timlin, the offense didn't exactly go south against the Yankees either:

Hitters    AB    H    BB    Avg    Obp
Ramirez    11    8    7    .727    .833     
Loretta    15    7    3    .467    .556     
Lowell     13    6    2    .462    .533     
Cora       11    4    1    .364    .417     
Hinske      9    3    1    .333    .400     
Ortiz      16    5    2    .313    .389     
Youkilis   17    4    3    .235    .350     
Lopez       8    2    0    .250    .250     
Crisp       9    1    1    .111    .200     
Mirabelli  10    2    0    .200    .200     
Pena       14    1    0    .071    .071     
Kapler      4    0    0    .000    .000     
Gonzalez    3    0    0    .000    .000 
Totals    140   43   20    .307    .394

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A day for the record books?

Another pasting at the hands of the Yanks, one that saw the Sox set several uncomfortable firsts:
It was the first time the Red Sox had allowed 12 or more runs in three straight games.

Josh Beckett set a personal mark, allowing 9 free passes to Yankee hitters. The last Red Sox pitcher to walk as many as nine batters in a game was Roger Moret, had nine against the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 22, 1975. Moret could at least take something away from that game, however - he pitched a complete game to get the nine, and he got the win.
Beckett's line: 5 2/3 innings, nine walks, nine earned runs and one very hard look in the mirror.

"It's unacceptable," Beckett said. "It's brutal. I couldn't get ahead or put anybody away. When you don't execute your pitches and you're walking guys on top of that, it's going to be a long day."

Struggles at the plate led to some curious lineup moves:
Shortstop Alex Gonzalez, just 1 for 17 on the homestand and 3 for 35 (.086) in his last 10 games, sat for the second straight game, replaced by Alex Cora, a lefthanded hitter asked to face the lefthanded Randy Johnson. And center fielder Coco Crisp, 1 for 9 in Friday's doubleheader, sat in favor of Gabe Kapler, even though Kapler was hitless in five career at-bats against Johnson entering the game.

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Ass pitching gets Rudy designated for ass.

Rudy Seanez was designated for assignment yesterday, ending a painful experiment. Seanez, who was signed to a one-year, $2.1 million contract over the winter, struggled with his consistency this season and didn’t come close to duplicating his 2005 with San Diego (7-1, 2.69 ERA). The 37-year-old right-hander went 2-1 with a 4.82 ERA in 41 appearances for the Sox.
``We stayed late last night to go over all the possible scenarios, what we should do, what we wanted to do, needed to do," Terry Francona said. ``If we didn't get a fresh arm, we'd put some people in jeopardy. It wasn't something we enjoyed when we told him.

Kason Gabbard, scratched from his start for Pawtucket Friday, now looms as a logical candidate to start Tuesday in Anaheim, Calif., after Kyle Snyder, who had tentatively been penciled in for that start, was used in relief in each of the last two days. Gabbard was pulled from the bus and spent the night in a motel, getting picked up in the morning by a Sox staffer.

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