Protection for Papi?

Much has been made of the lost protection of David Ortiz should the Sox trade Manny.

Since 2003, Ortiz has played in 55 games in which Manny did not have an AB. The Sox went 33-22 (.600) in those games.

In 186 AB, Papi hit .301 and slugged .624 with 17 HR. Over a 162-game season, that projects to 50 HR with 133 RBI with 133 walks. ... In 2006, he slugged .636 with 54 HR, 137 RBI and 119 BB.

Let's also recall that Ortiz hit behind Manny for all of 2003, a good chunk of 2004 (including the playoffs), the first few months of 2005, and in September of 2006. Ortiz put up a .983 OPS hitting behind Manny in 2003, a .958 OPS during the part of 2004 that he hit behind Manny, a .960 OPS when he was behind Manny in 2005 and an OPS over 1.200 in September of '06.

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More on No. 40 (Okajima)

"Hello, hello. My name is Hideki Okajima and I like Boston," were the first words he uttered as a Red Sox reliever.

Okajima will be paid $1.25 million each of the next two seasons and has a $1.75 million club option for 2009.

Here are Okajima's righty/lefty splits:

vs. RH (130 AB) .254 BA, 6 BB, 36 K, 5 HR
vs. LH ( 70 AB) .186 BA, 8 BB, 27 K, 0 HR

Okajima's big-game experience was something Sox Director of International Scouting Craig Shipley felt would come in handy in Boston.

"Two thousand five for me was the first time I saw him," he said. "[International scout] John Deeble has seen him for a number of years before that. He has a very good overhand curveball and has good command. He can use his fastball on both sides of the plate. He throws two types of splits, one he throws for a strike and another when he's trying to get a strikeout or a swing and a miss.

"He has a lot of experience in big games in Japan. He's pitched in a number of roles in Japan, as well, as a starter and a closer. He's more than a situational left-hander."

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Lugo to the Cubs?

Multiple sources report that the Cubs have offered Julio Lugo a multi-year deal. Some outlets report that they want him to play center field, others shortstop.

Here's Ken Rosenthal's view on the situation:

How Lugo would fit into the Cubs' plans remains unclear. He could start out in center field, then move back to shortstop if the Cubs promoted top prospect Felix Pie and/or parted with shortstop Cesar Izturis, whose contract expires after next season.

Lugo, 31, was a favorite of new Cubs manager Lou Piniella's with the Devil Rays. His athleticism intrigues the Cubs, who could field an electrifying lineup if they added Lugo to a mix that will include Soriano, first baseman Derrek Lee and third baseman Aramis Ramirez — and eventually Pie.

The likelihood of Pie's emergence — possibly in 2007, probably no later than '08 — has caused the Cubs to back off free-agent center fielder Gary Matthews Jr., who would block Pie, 21, if he signed a long-term deal. Lugo, on the other hand, would be versatile enough to return to the infield — that is, if he doesn't sign with the Red Sox to play shortstop or the Mets to second base.

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Trot coming back?

The Boston Globe is reporting that the Sox are likely to offer salary arbitration to free agent outfielder Trot Nixon by today's deadline.

“Although Nixon has fielded feelers from other teams, he has maintained that his first choice was to prolong his career in Boston. If the Sox offer arbitration today -- and one club source cautioned it wasn't definite -- and Nixon accepts by the Dec. 7 deadline, that would make him the equivalent of a signed player for 2007, and probably place him squarely in the team's plans.

Nixon was paid $6.5 million last season and could expect to win a raise in arbitration, which would place him at a salary level unusually high for a spare outfielder. That points to the strong possibility the Sox have other plans for Nixon.”

Another possibility is that the Sox want to make sure they receive compensation should Trot sign with another team. Nixon is a type-B free agent, which means that if the Sox offer him arbitration and he signs with another club, they would get a "sandwich" pick between the first and second rounds of the draft.

Second-baseman Mark Loretta could also be offered arbitration this week. As Loretta is a type-A free agent, the Sox would be entitled to even more compensation, depending on who signs him. If that team's 1st round pick is in the bottom 15, the Sox get that pick and a sandwich pick. If that team's 1st round pick is in the top 15, the pick is protected and the Sox get the sandwich pick and the team's 2nd round pick.

For more on MLB's free agent rules, check out this link.

Here is a link to a site where you can track the draft picks teams owe as a result of free agent signings this off season.

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Hideki Okajima update

Here is a third-hand scouting report on new sox lefty reliever Hideki Okajima, courtesy of a Giants scout:

1. Fastball — low 90’s
Okajima’s fastball is an average MLB-caliber pitch. It is a heavy pitch that is difficult to hit because it has late movement away from lefthanded hitters. 20-80 scale: 60-65

2. Curveball — 70’s-80’s
Okajima’s curveball is his bread-and-butter pitch. It breaks hard and late, away from lefthanded hitters and down and in to righties. He’ll throw it on any count and he will strike-out batters by changing location with it, which he does very well. 20-80 scale: 70

3. Forkball
Okajima does not use his forkball often, but he will use it when he’s struggling with his control. He locates the pitch very well, but there are times when he does not get the necessary spin on the ball for it to break as much as he’d like it to. The pitch is very tough on righthanded batters. 20-80 scale: 55

Okajima will primarily rely on those three pitches, with the fastball and curveball being his most consistent and favorite pitches to throw. He also supposedly has a splitter, but it doesn’t have as much bite as his other pitches and is not an MLB-caliber pitch.

By the way, the Yankees supposedly also made an offer to Okajima that actually included more money than the Sox offer, but were turned down because Okajima preferred Boston, thinking that the Sox wanted him more because they placed the first offer.

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Sox sign Okajima

The Boston Herald is reporting that the Sox have signed 31-year-old lefty reliever Hideki Okajima to an unspecified deal. that is rumored to be for 2 years.
Okajima was traded to Nippon Ham in late March after spending 12 seasons with the Yomiuri Giants. He went 2-2 with four saves and a 2.14 ERA this year with Nippon Ham, bringing his career record to 34-32 with 41 saves and a 3.36 ERA.
He has 63 Ks with only 14 walks in 54 2/3 innings pitched last season.
He supposedly has a nasty curve but doesn't throw that hard.

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Who's the fastest?

I came across this list yesterday that ranks MLB starters by average fastball speed (min. 162 IP) :

King Felix:   95.2
Verlander:    95.1
Beckett:      94.7
Penny:        93.9
Sabathia:     93.7
Cain:         93.4
Bonderman:    93.3
Escober:      93.1
Wang:         93.1
E. Santana:   93.1
J. Santana:   93.1
Snell:        92.8
Oswalt:       92.7
Smoltz:       92.7
Bedard:       92.6

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J.D. vs. J.D.

Much has been made about the fact that the Sox only offered Johnny Damon $10 million a year and are now close to signing J.D. Drew for $14 million. Forget the money and compare their production:

Damon (32 years old) 2006: 148 games/ 285avg / 359obp / 482slg / 24hrs
Drew (30 years old) 2006: 146 games / 283avg / 393obp / 512slg / 20hrs

Here's their career averages in full seasons:

Damon: 289avg / 353obp / 436slg / 24hr
Drew:  286avg / 393obp / 512slg / 27hr

From a production standpoint, Drew is the superior player. The averages are the same, but while Johnny is supposed to be the great leadoff hitter/on base guy, Drew is 18th in all MLB players in on base %, while Damon checks in at 68th. Drew also has more pop in the bat.

Anyone concerned that JD Drew misses too much time? Johnny Damon has averaged 148 games played over the last 4 years. Drew played 145 in 2004 and 146 last year. He only played 72 games in 2005, but that was because he was hit by a pitch and broke a bone - not exactly something that can be blamed on his being injury prone. With Damon 2 years older, there's no reason to expect him to play any more time than Drew over the next 3-4 years.

So again, forgetting the money, you have to take Drew over Damon.

On to the money. I think it's a mistake to compare the Sox $10 mil offer to Damon with a $14 mil offer to Drew. NY paid Damon $13 mil and it would have taken close to that to keep him. We also have to factor in the changed market conditions this off-season with the increased revenue and new collective bargaining agreement meaning labor peace for the near future. In a market where Gary Matthews Jr. gets $50 mil, how much is Damon worth then?

Basically the Sox are getting a better, younger player for essentially $1 million more in a market that has inflated salaries. I say good deal.

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Bill James on Mike Lowell

Baseball Daily Digest has an interview with Bill James about his 2006 Fielding Bible. Here is what James has to say about Mike Lowell:
"Mike Lowell is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. He's extremely interesting to watch. He keeps his glove hand, his left hand, very relaxed, and he doesn't appear to anticipate the hop at all. What I am saying is. .. the announcers, the veteran baseball people will tell you that the key to making the plays is to get your body in the proper position to make the play. But in fact, if you actually watch the fielders, very often they can't handle a tough hop or a line drive at an awkward angle precisely because they're trying to play the ball with their whole body. They're relying on positioning their body to make the play, and when something happens that makes that impossible, they're just SOL. Lowell, if you watch him, seems to be saying "it is easier to react with my left arm than it is to re-position my whole body in anticipation of the play." He stays balanced, stays loose, reacts late and has extraordinary confidence in his ability to snag the ball with his glove at the last moment. I've never really seen anything like it before, but this looseness and unusual confidence, for example, gives him a remarkable ability to charge a ground ball. He can change a slow grounder top speed because he knows that, bad hop or good hop, in-between stride or on stride, he can slap at the ball with his glove and pick it out of the air."

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