Rotoworld has come out with its top 150 prospects. In order to be eligible, players must have no more than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors. Also, they cannot have spent more than 45 non-September days on an active roster.
Here are some highlights:
1. Delmon Young - OF Devil Rays - DOB: 09/14/85 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2004 #13, mid-2004 #4, 2005 #2, mid-2005 #2, 2006 #1, mid-2006 #1
.316/.341/.474, 8 HR, 59 RBI, 65/15 K/BB, 22 SB in 342 AB for Triple-A Durham
.317/.336/.476, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 24/1 K/BB, 2 SB in 126 AB for Tampa Bay
Young did little to enhance his stock after entering 2006 as the game's best prospect, but the drop in power and the pathetic walk rate weren't enough to cost him his placement. Neither was the ugly incident in April in which he threw a bat at an umpire and drew a 50-game suspension. There's no doubt Young is going to hit for power. He'll have 30- or maybe even 40-homer ability in his prime. Also, he makes contact often enough that he's not going to need to walk to be a very good player. He'll probably be a 50-walk guy someday anyway. It'd be quite a disappointment if he didn't go to at least a few All-Star Games in his career.
2. Alex Gordon - 3B Royals - DOB: 02/10/84 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2006 #11, mid-2006 #3
.325/.427/.588, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 113/72 K/BB, 22 SB in 486 AB for Double-A Wichita
Mark Teahen had a breakthrough season in 2006, but he's about to get shoved to the outfield to make room for the Royals' best prospect in decades. Gordon signed too late to play in the minors in 2005 after being drafted second overall out of the University of Nebraska, but a solid showing in the AFL gave the Royals few reservations about having him begin 2006 in Double-A and he was one of the best players in the Texas League from day one. Gordon combines 30-homer power with some terrific on-base skills. It shouldn't be long before he's hitting .290-.300 in the majors, and he'll be a factor on the basepaths, though odds are that he's not going to last as a basestealer. With questions about his ability to stay at third base seemingly answered, he has a chance to be an MVP candidate at his peak. The Royals will give him every opportunity to make the team out of the spring training.
3. Philip Hughes - RHP Yankees - DOB: 06/24/86 - ETA: June 2007
Previous rankings: mid-2005 #47, 2006 #29, mid-2006 #6
2-3, 1.80 ERA, 19 H, 30/2 K/BB in 30 IP for Single-A Tampa
10-3, 2.25 ERA, 73 H, 138/32 K/BB in 116 IP for Double-A Trenton
Hughes, a 2004 first-round pick, emerged as the game's top pitching prospect in a 2006 in which he limited hitters to a .179 average and struck out nearly five batters for every one he walked. With plenty of movement on his 91-94 mph fastball and a curveball that's become a dominant second pitch, he has ace upside. His third pitch is a changeup that's a little above average. Since he doesn't have far to go when it comes to command, he'd likely have success in a major league rotation right now. The Yankees, though, would prefer to not have to turn to him right away. Barring injury, he should be up for good by midseason.
17. Jose Tabata - OF Yankees - DOB: 08/12/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2006 #136, mid-2006 #18
.298/.377/.420, 5 HR, 51 RBI, 66/30 K/BB, 15 SB in 319 AB for low Single-A Charleston
Tabata more than held his own as a 17-year-old in full-season ball, though he did decline rather than improve as the year went on. Part of the problem was a hand injury suffered in July. He later aggravated the injury in Venezuela, where he hit .275/.392/.422 in 51 at-bats. A center fielder initially as a pro, Tabata made the move to right last year and should stay there. He has a great idea of what he should be doing at the plate for someone so young, and he's likely to develop 30-35 homer power. While he's not going to reach the majors anytime soon, he looks like a potential star.
41. Dustin Pedroia - 2B Red Sox - DOB: 08/17/83 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2005 #61, mid-2005 #27, 2006 #23, mid-2006 #30
.305/.384/.426, 5 HR, 50 RBI, 27/48 K/BB, 1 SB in 423 AB for Triple-A Pawtucket
.191/.258/.303, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 7/7 K/BB, 0 SB in 89 AB for Boston
The general view seems to be that Pedroia's stock has fallen over the last year, but after a slow start brought on by a shoulder injury suffered in spring training, he was productive as a 22-year-old in Triple-A, batting .330 and slugging .461 in 282 at-bats. Also, he showed terrific range at second base, the position that figures to be his long-term home. More than anything else, it was his arm that got him taken off shortstop. He did make the mistake of swinging for the fences too often after reaching the majors, but that's something time can take care of. The Arizona State product will be decent this year, and he should settle in as an above average regular beginning in 2008.
42. Jacoby Ellsbury - OF Red Sox - DOB: 09/11/83 - ETA: April 2008
Previous rankings: 2006 #138, mid-2006 #67
.299/.379/.418, 4 HR, 32 RBI, 28/25 K/BB, 25 SB in 244 AB for Single-A Wilmington
.308/.387/.434, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 25/24 K/BB, 16 SB in 198 AB for Double-A Portland
.276/.342/.371, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 16/8 K/BB, 7 SB in 105 AB for Peoria (AFL)
What Ellsbury lacks in offensive upside, he makes up for with potential Gold Glove defense in center field. The 2005 first-round pick out of Oregon State was one of the premier defenders in the minors last season, and he could offer just enough with the bat to be a leadoff man in the majors. The left-handed hitter shows gap power and the ability to hit for average. A few more walks would be nice, but at least he doesn't strike out very often. He'd probably be able to hold his own in the majors this year if Coco Crisp gets hurt again. A strong season split between Double- and Triple-A would make Crisp expendable next winter.
45. Clay Buchholz - RHP Red Sox - DOB: 08/14/84 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #122
9-4, 2.62 ERA, 78 H, 117/29 K/BB in 103 IP for low Single-A Greenville
2-0, 1.13 ERA, 10 H, 23/4 K/BB in 16 IP for Single-A Wilmington
Buchholz was supposed to something of a raw product after getting drafted 41st overall out of a Texas junior college in 2005, but he's opened his pro career with a 2.47 ERA and a 185/42 K/BB ratio in 160 1/3 innings. Now it looks like the Red Sox could have him start this year at Double-A, though that's in large part because they don't want him to have to deal with the harsh environment at Lancaster in the California League. Buchholz works comfortably in the low-90s and has four pitches, though his curve lags behind his slider and change. As impressive as his command is, he would seem to have No. 2-starter potential.
56. Humberto Sanchez - RHP Yankees - DOB: 05/28/83 - ETA: Aug. 2007
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #29
5-3, 1.76 ERA, 47 H, 86/27 K/BB in 71 2/3 IP for Double-A Erie
5-3, 3.86 ERA, 50 H, 43/20 K/BB in 51 1/3 IP for Triple-A Toledo
After posting a 5.21 ERA at Single-A Lakeland in 2004 and a 5.56 ERA at Double-A Erie in 2005, Sanchez finally began to fulfill his potential last season, at least until he hurt his elbow in July. He made just one start over the final six weeks of the season. Sanchez has always had big-time stuff, but inconsistency, along with questions about his arm, has led many to believe his future may lie in the pen. It's more likely that he'll end up there now that he's a Yankee, the result of the Gary Sheffield trade. Sanchez can throw in the mid-90s and his hard curveball is quite a strikeout pitch. He'll probably reach the Bronx as a middle reliever before the end of the year.
92. George Kottaras - C Red Sox - DOB: 05/16/83 - ETA: April 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2005 #102, 2006 #89, mid-2006 #71
.276/.394/.451, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 68/50 K/BB, 0 SB in 257 AB for Double-A Mobile
.210/.286/.361, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 30/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 119 AB for Triple-A Portland
Kottaras, who was picked up from the Padres for David Wells at the end of August, possesses rare on-base ability for a catcher and appears likely to develop 15- homer power.
His status as a prospect, though, hinges on his ability to stay behind the plate.
He's not fast enough to become an option at another key position, so if he has to move, he'd be a first baseman or a corner outfielder. Kottaras has enough of an arm to be an adequate catcher if he can make enough progress on the other parts of his game.
The Red Sox have no intention of having him change positions anytime soon.
Ideally, he'd make enough progress defensively this year that he could begin splitting time with the aging Jason Varitek in 2008.
97. Michael Bowden - RHP Red Sox - DOB: 09/09/86 - ETA: 2009
Previous rankings: none
9-6, 3.51 ERA, 91 H, 118/31 K/BB in 107 2/3 IP for low Single-A Greenville
0-0, 9.00 ERA, 9 H, 3/1 K/BB in 5 IP for Single-A Wilmington
Bowden was taken six spots after Clay Buchholz in the 2005 draft and the two are often compared to one another. Bowden has the advantage of youth and his curveball is probably a better weapon than any of Buchholz's offspeed pitches. Still, he gets dropped a bit here because of a delivery that could lead to arm problems down the line. Also, his changeup doesn't quite measure up. He has plenty of potential if his elbow and shoulder hold up. Still, it'd be no surprise if physical problems get him sent to the bullpen someday.
116. Daniel Bard - RHP Red Sox - DOB: 06/25/85 - ETA: 2009
Previous rankings: none
Top 150 Prospects
Globe suspends Borges
The Boston Globe has suspended sportswriter Ron Borges after learning that he plagiarized much of his football column this week.
The Globe's editor, Martin Baron, said in a story posted on the newspaper's Web site that Borges had included in his football notes column last Sunday material written by Mike Sando, a reporter for The News Tribune of Tacoma, Wash.
The allegations of plagiarism first arose on a Web site, coldhardfootballfacts.com:
Simply note the incredible similarities between his “Football Notes” column in the Boston Globe on Sunday, March 4, and this story written by Mike Sando and published in the News Tribune of Tacoma, Washington, on Feb. 25.Here are two sections of each story that you can judge for yourself:
We'll call a spade a spade here: Borges apparently lifted great stretches of his column from a previously published report. The question now is if his editors at the Globe will once again go to bat for him after another ethically malignant tumor of a column.
Sando:
But trouble arose in March 2004 when former Seahawks president Bob Whitsitt allegedly shorted Jackson on a contract offer. Jackson said he signed the deal anyway at the urging of his father, who has since died. Whitsitt has dismissed the charge as preposterous, while Ruskell has resisted honoring a promise that a predecessor denies making.Here is what Borges wrote:
The dispute has escalated ever since, with the Seahawks and Jackson’s agents exchanging a series of blunt letters, sources said.
When Ruskell became Seahawks president in February 2005, one of his first moves was to issue a letter to players outlining his expectations. He urged full participation in the team’s offseason program, including minicamps, but Jackson let it be known he would honor his contract but nothing more. Jackson subsequently skipped the voluntary portions of minicamps.
The relationship soured further after Jackson suffered a knee injury during an Oct. 2, 2005, game at Washington.
Jackson had bruised the knee earlier and experienced pain following a Sept. 25 game against Arizona. He suffered cartilage damage against the Redskins, raising questions in his mind about whether he should have been on the field at all, sources said.
The damage did not show up on initial tests. The team recommended rest. Holmgren avoided giving a timetable other than to say he thought it would be “shorter more than longer” after speaking with Jackson. The team ruled out Jackson for the next game.
Trouble arose with Seahawks management two years ago after former team president Bob Whitsitt allegedly shorted Jackson on a contract offer. Jackson said he signed the deal anyway at the urging of his father. Whitsitt has dismissed the charge as preposterous, while present club president Tim Ruskell has refused to honor a promise that another person denies making. The dispute has escalated, with the Seahawks and Jackson's agents exchanging blunt letters.
When Ruskell became Seahawks president in February 2005, one of his first moves was to issue a letter to players outlining his expectations. He urged full participation in the team's offseason program, including minicamps, but Jackson let it be known he would honor his contract, but nothing more. Jackson subsequently skipped the voluntary portions of minicamps.
Problems continued after Jackson suffered a right knee injury on Oct. 2, 2005, against Washington. Jackson had bruised the knee earlier in the season and he suffered cartilage damage against the Redskins, raising questions in his mind about whether he should have been on the field.
The cartilage damage did not show up on initial tests, and the team recommended rest. The team ruled out Jackson for the next game. Jackson, acting on the advice of his agents, sought a second opinion and later underwent surgery to repair the lateral meniscus in his right knee.
Pitching v. hitting prospects
Nate Silver has an interesting piece in Baseball Prospectus today in which he argues that hitting prospects are more likely to improve than pitching prospects.
"One thing that distinguishes young hitters from young pitchers is that young hitters can pretty much count on making steady improvements from the time they start playing professional ball until the time they’re 26 or 27.
The same is not the case with pitching prospects. Although there are a few categories of pitching prospects — particularly guys with good stuff, high strikeout rates and highish walk rates — that tend to improve more often than not, in general there is no systematic pattern of improvement after the age of 21 or so.
Sometimes guys get better, of course, and sometimes they do so in a hurry — but you can’t take a young pitcher in a vacuum and expect him to improve the same way that you can for a hitting prospect.
Young pitchers often take less time to become dominant big league performers. Pitching, somewhat contrary to the mad genius reputation of pitchers like Greg Maddux, is more of a purely physical skill and less of a learned behavior than hitting is. Pitchers like Francisco Liriano and Jered Weaver and Cole Hamels — these guys weren’t just holding their own last year, they were among the very best pitchers in baseball. Someone like Philip Hughes might very well be as effective today as he’s ever going to be, before he’s had a chance for injuries and mileage to accumulate. Keeping those guys down on the farm is not conservative — it’s a downright irresponsible way to run a ballclub.
Lester pitches again
Jon Lester pitched in game conditions for the first time since August.
As quoted by Nick Cafardo:
“There were some nerves. 
I didn’t know where the first pitch was going to go, but it was a strike. ... I wasn’t worried about how many pitches or innings I threw; I just wanted to throw well and move on to the next step.”
"It's great. Just to get back and be normal again is awesome. Just to get back on the mound and throw the baseball and not worry about other things. So it's good and I enjoyed it and, hopefully, we just build from here."
On whether he was frustrated about not going beyond one inning: “No, I understand, I know that the team has my best interests at heart... I'll get my work in one way or the other, so we'll just take it slow and go from here."
Asked about the strength in his legs, Lester said that it wasn’t where it should be, but that he was about 85 percent to 90 percent there.
Lester will throw next in a bullpen session on Wednesday then pitch one inning Saturday in a simulated game against Boston teammates. With a very solid starting rotation, the Red Sox don't have to rush him.
Donnelly overtaking Pineiro?
Joel Pineiro was charged with four runs in 1 innings yesterday, giving him a 15.43 ERA through two spring appearances. The struggles might leave him with an uphill climb to overtake Brendan Donnelly in the closer’s race. The other top candidate, Julian Tavarez, pitched a
Donnelly has tossed two scoreless innings this spring.
“He’s not scared,” manager Terry Francona said. “He’s the kind of guy who wants the ball when the game’s still in doubt. We have room for guys like that.”
Manny Delcarmen had a rough day, giving up three runs in the top of the ninth inning that allowed the Phillies to break a 6-6 tie.
2 Manny notes
- Julio Lugo was spotted in spring training wearing a black shirt that read "Manny Being Manny" and had a bunch of Manny's statistics. Lugo said Ramirez gave out the shirts.
- Terry Francona on how he spent his day home with the flu:
"I was watching the Anna Nicole trial and looking to see if Manny showed up at that."
Pavano to be traded?
George King reports that the Yankees may be auditioning Carl Pavano to potential trade partners. As King notes, If the Yanks will swallow $15MM or so of Pavano's $23MM over the next two
seasons, they can clear a spot for Phil Hughes and pick up a prospect.
The Yanks (and lots of scouts) apparently believe Hughes is ready to be one of their best starters right now.
Pavano didn't embarrass himself or get injured facing the tough Phillies
lineup this afternoon. He faced off with Cole Hamels, allowing one run
in two innings of work. The Cardinals and Rockies have shown interest in
the past.
Pavano only recorded 16 strikes out of the 33 pitches he threw.
Schilling adds to arsenal
Curt Schilling has added a change-up to his resume: "It's been something I’ve worked on, meddled with for three years now and I think it’s to the point now where I can take it
and make it a plus pitch.”
Schilling said he threw 9 or 10 change-ups in the 3 1/3 innings he threw in the Sox 6-1 victory
against the Twins.
Unlike the changeup of Daisuke Matsuzaka or Pedro Martinez, each of
which breaks down, Schilling’s circle-grip changeup comes at the batter
straight, with little to no action. But by throwing with the same arm
action as his fastball, Schilling’s goal is to mess with the hitter’s
timing and get some bad swings that will translate into outs.
“I think it’s good enough to be my No. 2 pitch on some nights, that’s
why I’m starting to use it,” Schilling said. “It’s the pitch I can
strike people out with, get strikes with, it’s going to be an integral
part of my spring training and hopefully be an integral part of my
success this year. It’s a pitch that brings pitch counts down. You get
more contact, get quicker outs if you can command it and throw it in the
strike zone.”
Jason Varitek liked how hitters reacted yesterday.
“He threw some really good ones,” Varitek said. “The velocity was good
and there was good change of pace for him. The separation was good.”
Ultimate Galactic Dragon Gyroball Pitch Power Explosion
The Onion loves Dice-K:
BOSTON—Now that Manny Ramirez has reported to camp and the spring-training opener against Minnesota is in the books, Red Sox fans are turning their attention to the awesome power rumored to dwell within much-touted off-season pitching acquisition Daisuke Matsuzaka—a man who many say possesses pitching powers and techniques beyond the comprehension of mortal fans.
"Daisuke is the pitching master!" said Boston Globe baseball columnist Bob Ryan, hopping from one foot to the other as he described videotape footage of Matsuzaka's otherworldly pitching power and control banishing a flock of evil, conniving, left-handed-batting carp-spirits to the netherworld during a 2003 Seibu Lions game. "His Ultimate Galactic Dragon Gyroball Pitch Power Explosion breaks three feet inside before cutting sharply toward the dugout, where falsehood and cowardice are forced to shrink before it!"
"Battle on, Daisuke! Wither their spirits with your mystical Four Winds Split-Finger Shottu-jitsu! Repel their cruel affronts with your Triple-Star Cut-Fastball Technique of the Joyous Uplifting Dynamo, clocked at a respectable 96 miles per hour! And baffle their comprehension and deceive in turn their deceitful hearts with your Two-Seam Shadow-Strike Clouded-Eye Shinobi Sinker!" said 44-year-old accountant and spring-training attendee Roger Fettleman, quoting the back of Matsuzaka's Red Sox rookie card almost word for word as he watched the right-hander warm up in the bullpen before his first Grapefruit League start. "Truly, it is within your grasp to go 16-4 with an ERA under 4.00!"
BA talks with Jed Hoyer
The Baseball Analysts has a chat with Sox Assistant General Manager Jed Hoyer, who started with the organization as an intern and has worked his way up. Some highlights:
On last year's disappointment:
We weren't good enough in 2006. When we were relatively injury-free through July, we played well. But once we started getting banged up, we fell quickly. That's not an excuse at all, because the mark of a good team is one that is deep enough to overcome injuries.On the Sox bullpen:
In 2005, we made the playoffs without Schilling or Foulke for most of the season. In 2004, we didn't have Nomar or Trot for long stretches. Last year, we weren't deep enough in the rotation or the lineup to sustain injuries. This off-season we tried to add more bats, with Drew and Lugo, to take some of the pressure off Ortiz and Manny. We were last in baseball in OPS out of the #5 hole in the lineup (.683) and we felt that we couldn't endure that again. Also, we added Matsuzaka and Papelbon to the rotation, and we have a number of solid options behind our top 5. Our team is deeper offensively and deeper in starting pitching and I think that will allow us to endure the bumps in the road that inevitably crop up during a six-month season.
If a Wagner or Ryan had been available this winter, we certainly would have attempted to land such a proven closer. But since that type of pitcher wasn't available, we tried to acquire as many good relievers as possible and we are confident one of them will emerge as a solid closer.Q: Who has the best fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup in the system?
I guess my evaluation would be - Fastball (Bard), Curveball (Bowden), Slider and Changeup (Buchholz).
Baseball America's Top 100
Baseball America has come out with their list of the top 100 prospects in baseball. Here's where the Red Sox fit in, starting with the Demon Mystery Pitch man himself:
1. DAISUKE MATSUZAKA, rhp, Red Sox
Who needs a gyroball? He has six pitches that grade out as plus or plus-plus at their best, and he'll be the best Japanese import ever. And no, we're not forgetting about Ichiro
Opening Day Age: 26. ETA: 2007
33 JACOBY ELLSBURY, of, Red Sox
Boston downplays Johnny Damon comparisons, but the parallels are hard to ignore
Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2008
51 CLAY BUCHHOLZ, rhp, Red Sox
His fastball hit 97 mph at the end of last season, and at times it's his fourth-best pitch
Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2008
81 DANIEL BARD, rhp, Red Sox
His fastball eats up bats like few others, thanks to its velocity (up to 100 mph) and heavy life
Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2009
Sox over Northeastern 11-0
Josh Beckett made his spring debut with a solid 2 innings against the Huskies.
David Gustafson opened the game by lining a first-pitch fastball off the end of the bat and into right field for an opposite-field single, but Beckett responded by retiring six straight batters, including the next four on strikeouts.
“There are things you want to work on every spring, and for me, it’s throwing offspeed pitches for strikes, which I did pretty well today,” Beckett said. “It doesn’t matter what lineup you’re facing - college, minor league or major league - if it’s something you need to work on, you’ve got to do it.”
He threw 21 pitches, 18 of them for strikes. It was good to see Red Sox pitchers refrain from allowing a single walk yesterday.
Wily Mo Pena is also off to a good start with 3 hits and 0 strikeouts in his first 5 at bats.
Tomorrow the Red Sox have two more games:
At 12:30 Manny Ramirez will make his Spring Training debut against the Blue Jays and at 6:05 Daisuke Matsuzaka will make his debut against Boston College. Both Donnelly and Okajima are scheduled to pitch tomorrow against the Blue Jays. Kyle Jackson and Nick Debarr will pitch against Boston College.
104 - 58?
Keith Woolner is projecting the Red Sox to go 104-58 this season, thanks to a deeper rotation and a more powerful offense. Some highlights:
The Red Sox scored 820 runs last year. Add 15 runs for Pedroia over Loretta, 30 runs for Lugo over Gonzalez, and 20 runs for a return to form by Varitek. Pencil in 25 more runs for a reasonably healthy Drew over Nixon. Crisp's return offsets Ortiz's regression to his established level of play, and everyone else maintains their 2006 level of production, on average. That yields a net increase of 90 runs, or 910 runs scored.As we all know, health will be a big concern for the team:
If Schilling and Wakefield combine for 48 starts, it will be the fourth-highest total any team has gotten from a pair of 40+ year olds since 1960. Charlie Hough and Nolan Ryan combined for 62 and 61 starts in 1989-90. The highest total was set by the 2003 Yankees, who had Roger Clemens and David Wells combining for 63 starts.Woolner predicts that an improvement in the offense will be a big factor:
Although Boston is traditionally thought of as a slugging ballclub, they ranked only 6th in runs per game in the 2006 AL, and 9th in scoring on the road, where they don't get the Fenway Park boost. A healthy Crisp should return to an above-average starter in center, and Drew should easily outhit departed fan-favorite Trot Nixon when he's able to play. Even when Drew is unable to play, the Red Sox may have the best fourth outfielder in baseball in Wily Mo Pena. The team needs to count on a rebound from Varitek, as the catching options behind him are downright frightening (the even older Doug Mirabelli, and promising but not major-league-ready George Kottaras). Pedroia is well-known to be a PECOTA favorite, replacing Mark Loretta's below-average bat with a solid package of average, patience, and defense. Lugo should be a dramatic upgrade offensively from Alex Gonzalez, even if he declines from his 2006 numbers. Only David Ortiz had what would be termed a career year last year, so none of the other players should be expected to slide significantly.Woolner sums it up thusly:
Combined, the offense and pitching in our rosy scenario post a 560 VORP. That would lead to a projected record of 104-58, and while any 100-win team has a legitimate shot at the World Series, those with three dominating starting pitchers do better than those with equivalent-but-deeper total talent. If Schilling, Beckett, and Matsuzaka are humming along, the wait for the next Red Sox World Championship won't be anywhere near as long as the last one.
Schilling sharp in opener
Obviously you take spring training games for what they're worth (especially the first one), but Curt Schilling looked good last night on the mound - in terms of his pitches, that is, the gut was there for all to see.
"I felt a little stronger than I thought I would, which was nice," said Schilling. "But this was not even close to stretching it out. I would have liked to have kept going, but we have a lot of guys here who need innings."
Schill threw 19 pitches, 18 of them fastballs, and 15 for strikes. Nice to see the control that has made him what he is already there in game 1.
He even did a nice job covering first on a grounder by Joe Mauer.
While it was only the first game, who doubts that the media would be all over his weight issues if the outing had gone poorly?
On another pitching note, Manager Terry Francona said that he does not expect to leave spring training with a long relief pitcher and that he plans to take the best 11 or 12 pitchers with the team, regardless of their ability to go multiple innings on short notice.
“The one thing I’m not looking for out of the bullpen is the so-called ‘long guy,’ that when a guy gets knocked out, he can eat up innings,” Francona said. “That happens every couple of weeks. I’d rather have a bullpen that can try to get outs, and if we run into that disaster, we’ll piece it together, and, if we have to call somebody up, we will.
Should make it difficult for the Kyle Snyder's of the world to make the club.
Murray Chass v. Baseball Prospectus
An interesting little tiff opened up today between NY Times baseball writer Murray Chass and Baseball Prospectus.
Chass, if you recall, is the writer who continues to insist that the Red Sox should face tampering charges for the J.D. Drew situation, apparently unable to fathom how Scott Boras would advise his client to seek more than the guaranteed 3 year, $33 million deal he had with the Dodgers.
Chass started the fracas with his latest column, in which he rails about "Things I don’t want to read or hear about anymore."
While most of us probably agree with some of his topics, this one caught the eye of BP:
Statistics mongers promoting VORP and other new-age baseball statistics.Without mentioning the obvious fact that Chass only gets that email from BP because he pays for a subscription, Executive VP Nate Silver had this response:I receive a daily e-mail message from Baseball Prospectus, an electronic publication filled with articles and information about statistics, mostly statistics that only stats mongers can love.
To me, VORP epitomized the new-age nonsense. For the longest time, I had no idea what VORP meant and didn’t care enough to go to any great lengths to find out. I asked some colleagues whose work I respect, and they didn’t know what it meant either.
Finally, not long ago, I came across VORP spelled out. It stands for value over replacement player. How thrilling. How absurd. Value over replacement player. Don’t ask what it means. I don’t know.
I suppose that if stats mongers want to sit at their computers and play with these things all day long, that’s their prerogative. But their attempt to introduce these new-age statistics into the game threatens to undermine most fans’ enjoyment of baseball and the human factor therein.
People play baseball. Numbers don’t.
Fans today have a lot of choices about how they consume baseball in general, and their baseball media in particular. Baseball Prospectus’ mission is to provide them with an informed and independent perspective that helps to accentuate their enjoyment of the game.Seth Mnookin, author of Feeding The Monster, had this to say:
Sometimes, our arguments involve statistical analysis and sometimes they do not. To the extent that we use statistics, we look at them as part of the puzzle rather than the whole picture. We do, however, try and ensure that where statistics are used, they are used correctly. We have argued, for example, that the writers who selected Justin Morneau over Derek Jeter in the American League MVP balloting made a mistake not because they didn’t use statistics, but because they used statistics in the wrong way. They focused on Morneau’s RBI total, while ignoring that Jeter did a far superior job of getting on base, plays a much more difficult defensive position — and actually did a better job than Morneau of knocking runners in from scoring position when he had the opportunities.
We have found that millions of baseball fans appreciate our perspective on issues like these. At worst, we hope to offer them a choice. At best, we hope to increase the caliber of baseball discussion, and to give them another way to love and enjoy the game.
I would personally invite you to attend one of the events on our book tour, to appear on Baseball Prospectus Radio, or to participate in a baseball prospectus chat. I think you will be pleasantly surprised by how much you have in common with our readers. We are all baseball fans first, and we come carrying neither agendas nor pocket protectors. Alternatively, I am in New York frequently, and would invite you to attend a Yankees or Mets game with me. You have done a lot for the game of baseball and it would be a pleasure to meet you. I hope that your comments today reflected nothing more than a lack of familiarity with our people and our product.
Murray Chass defends his right to be ignorant, uninformed:
It’s been a good long time since I’ve heard a reporter actually brag about his total and utter lack of curiosity regarding his work. One of the biggest changes in baseball over the last decade has been the emphasis on using everything possible to understand the game. This doesn’t undermine enjoyment of the game any more than learning the historical references contained in Shakespeare plays leeches the enjoyment out of a night at the theatre.
Information is knowledge, as that hoary old cliche goes. Lord knows Murray ain’t much one for knowledge — he practically shouts his ignorance from the rooftops every time he puts pen to paper — but it’s embarrassing for him to beat his chest about it.
If a fan doesn’t want to get bogged down in the minutia of VORP or OPS or equivalent averages, that’s all well and good; I loved watching baseball in the days when I couldn’t identify a breaking ball from high and tight heat. But if it was my job to watch baseball games and then inform the public about these very same games, I’d sure as shit make sure I knew everything I could about the sport, regardless of what language I used to write about what was taking place on the field.
And anyone who thinks that being better informed makes for a less enjoyable day at the ballpark clearly hasn’t ever watched a game with Bill James.
I'll try to do a note on VORP and it's pros and cons later this week, but any thoughts?
Upcoming pitchers
Here's the breakdown of likely pitchers in the Sox upcoming games:
Wed 02/28 v Twins: Curt Schilling
Thu 03/01 v Blue Jays: Kason Gabbard
Thu 03/01 v Northeastern: Josh Beckett
Fri 03/02 v Blue Jays: Kyle Snyder
Fri 03/02 v Boston College: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Sat 03/03 v Phillies: Tim Wakefield/Jonathan Papelbon
All our bullpen options should get a chance to pitch this week. I'm looking forward to taking a look at the team's less heralded Japanese import: Hideki Okajima.
Here are a few other sox stories from this morning:
Mike Timlin left practice early yesterday with cramping in his back:
“It cramped up. What am I going to do?” he shrugged. “It’s not like I’ve torn anything, and I’m not dead. I’ll be OK.”
Manny Delcarmen will need to impress to start the season in the majors:
“I think he would be in a development stage or progression toward the back end of the game,” New Sox pitching coach John Farrell said. “He’s in competition for a spot in the bullpen, but I think repeating his delivery and executing his pitches consistently is the first step.”
The closer question
With several pitchers in camp auditioning for the closer role, it appears that Joel Pineiro is going to get the first crack. We'll begin our pitcher-by-pitcher look at the team's options with Pineiro today.
As Gordon Edes notes, of all American League pitchers who threw at least 150 innings last season, only one had an earned run average over 6. That was Pineiro, whose 6.36 ERA was the worst in the majors. Only two AL pitchers this decade who threw 150 or more innings had a higher ERA: Jose Lima (6.99 for Kansas City in 2005) and David Cone (6.91 for the Yankees in 2000).
Not exactly a track record that inspires confidence for a team hoping to challenge for a championship.
Pineiro did perform marginally better in 12 relief appearances last year, and the Sox scouts must have seen something in those outings to give him a $4 million deal.
"One thing we saw in our scouting evaluations," pitching coach John Farrell said, "was that in short stints, his velocity got back up to the mid-90s, and the action and life to his pitches increased in short stints. I think short stints and an aggressive mentality fits well for him. It's a change in role that No. 1, he's accepting of. He throws strikes with three pitches, he's got some late action. We feel like this is the right spot."
Should Sox have extended Schilling?
With the return of Notes for the 2007 season, I'd like to start off with the hot topic on Boston sports radio: did the Sox make the right decision in declining Curt Schilling's offer of a one-year extension at the same $13 million he's making now? I think everyone would agree that the 2006 Schilling is certainly worth $13 million, but what can we realistically expect for a 40-year-old pitcher over the next two years? Schilling did slow down a bit late in the season last year:
Much has been made that he supposedly showed up a little fatter than expected to spring training, but it remains to be seen if that's really an issue. If it was a question of whether to extend him for this season at that money I don't think there would be an argument, regardless of his numbers in July and August, but that option vested when the Sox won the Series in '04.
Month ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB
April 2.88 8.9 1.5 0.89 5.71
May 5.23 6.9 0.6 1.65 12.50
June 2.58 8.1 1.1 1.1 7.40
July 4.74 8.5 0.9 1.66 9.00
Aug 5.22 7.5 1.4 1.36 5.50
Sept 1.50 9.0 3.0 0.00 3.00
I think you're likely to see a very similar season from Schilling in 2007, with a slight decline. I'd expect a 3.75 ERA, a few less strikeouts, but continued success at avoiding walks keeping him as a top 25 pitcher. What do you think?
