104 - 58?

Keith Woolner is projecting the Red Sox to go 104-58 this season, thanks to a deeper rotation and a more powerful offense. Some highlights:

The Red Sox scored 820 runs last year. Add 15 runs for Pedroia over Loretta, 30 runs for Lugo over Gonzalez, and 20 runs for a return to form by Varitek. Pencil in 25 more runs for a reasonably healthy Drew over Nixon. Crisp's return offsets Ortiz's regression to his established level of play, and everyone else maintains their 2006 level of production, on average. That yields a net increase of 90 runs, or 910 runs scored.

As we all know, health will be a big concern for the team:

If Schilling and Wakefield combine for 48 starts, it will be the fourth-highest total any team has gotten from a pair of 40+ year olds since 1960. Charlie Hough and Nolan Ryan combined for 62 and 61 starts in 1989-90. The highest total was set by the 2003 Yankees, who had Roger Clemens and David Wells combining for 63 starts.

Woolner predicts that an improvement in the offense will be a big factor:

Although Boston is traditionally thought of as a slugging ballclub, they ranked only 6th in runs per game in the 2006 AL, and 9th in scoring on the road, where they don't get the Fenway Park boost. A healthy Crisp should return to an above-average starter in center, and Drew should easily outhit departed fan-favorite Trot Nixon when he's able to play. Even when Drew is unable to play, the Red Sox may have the best fourth outfielder in baseball in Wily Mo Pena. The team needs to count on a rebound from Varitek, as the catching options behind him are downright frightening (the even older Doug Mirabelli, and promising but not major-league-ready George Kottaras). Pedroia is well-known to be a PECOTA favorite, replacing Mark Loretta's below-average bat with a solid package of average, patience, and defense. Lugo should be a dramatic upgrade offensively from Alex Gonzalez, even if he declines from his 2006 numbers. Only David Ortiz had what would be termed a career year last year, so none of the other players should be expected to slide significantly.

Woolner sums it up thusly:

Combined, the offense and pitching in our rosy scenario post a 560 VORP. That would lead to a projected record of 104-58, and while any 100-win team has a legitimate shot at the World Series, those with three dominating starting pitchers do better than those with equivalent-but-deeper total talent. If Schilling, Beckett, and Matsuzaka are humming along, the wait for the next Red Sox World Championship won't be anywhere near as long as the last one.