RedSoxNotes

Daniel Cabrera preview

2008-06-10T16:04:00.004-04:00

Tonight's game has been moved up to 6 pm and the Sox face Orioles fireballer Daniel Cabrera.

Cabrera sports one of the top ten fastest heaters in the game and has had considerably more success this season as he has learned to trust his stuff and throw strikes.

Although he was a top strikeout pitcher last season, Cabrera ran into repeated problems with his control and ended up with a 5.55 ERA.

This season, Cabrera has simplified things and now lets his gas and plus slider get hitters out with balls near the strike zone.

As a result he has dropped over a run and a half off his ERA to 3.89.

Cabrera is primarily a fastball/slider pitcher and, as hit pitch selection chart shows, he relies on the fastball except when he is ahead in the count:


Pitch Type by Count:
      Fastball Slider
Count Total Percent Total Percent
0-0   252   91.97   22    8.03
0-1   102   87.93   14    12.07
0-2   37    90.24   4     9.76
1-0   105   88.98   13    11.02
1-1   88    86.27   14    13.73
1-2   65    84.42   12    15.58
2-0   39    90.7    4     9.3
2-1   51    85      9     15
2-2   58    71.6    23    28.4
3-0   11    100     0     0
3-1   21    100     0     0
3-2   46    86.79   7     13.21

His fastball averages between 94 and 95 mph and has pretty good life on it, with above average break in on a right-handed batter.

Cabrera throws the slider at 83, and while it isn't as impressive as his fastball, it has enough break and separation from the fastball to work quite nicely for him.

Look for Cabrera to throw fastballs early and often tonight. Here's a look atn his location chart:

Not Reinventing the Wheel

2008-06-09T20:14:00.003-04:00

Often today's baseball fans think they have some new way of looking at the game that escapes "Old-Time Baseball Men" like Joe Morgan and Tim McCarver.

Little did I know, but the venerable Brooklyn Dodgers exec Branch Rickey was advocating the use of on base percentage and isolated power over 50 years ago. Check out the following excerpt from an article Rickey wrote in 1954 for Life Magazine titled "Goodbye to Some Old Baseball Ideas." Here's a sample, for the rest, just click the title.

Even batting average must be reexamined. There are people who pride themselves on their ability to quote what Johnny Whosit hit the year of the big flood.

Among fans it is the accepted standard of excellence at bat. Why? Principally because it is easy to figure. Even the professionals lean upon it.

But batting average is only a partial means of determining a man's effectiveness on offense. It neglects a major factor, the base on balls, which is reflected only negatively in the batting average (by not counting it as a time at bat).

Actually walks are extremely important. Ted Williams, a student of batting values, bragged more about the 162 gases on balls he got five years ago than about his .343 batting average or his 43 home runs.

Wakefield Jr?

2008-06-09T16:43:00.002-04:00

Kevin Goldstein checks in with his latest "Monday Morning 10-Pack" of prospects and has this to say about PawSox knuckleballer Charlie Zink:

Five years ago, Zink was quite the object of affection. He’s a knuckleball pitcher, which is an inherently cool thing in itself, but there was more as he was also an undrafted free agent out of the Savannah College of Art and Design, of all places. And his coach there was Luis Tiant-–I kid you not.

After earning far more attention that his talent really deserved, Zink established himself as what many saw as a Double-A/Triple-A lifer, being really good at times, but mostly compiling a lot of five-plus ERAs.

However, on Saturday night Zink got my attention with eight very good innings, allowing only one run on four hits, and a little further investigation shows that Zink has actually been good pretty much all year.

In 13 starts for the PawSox, he has an excellent 2.44 ERA while limiting International League hitters to a .204 average. While I’ve yet to talk to a scout about him, the knuckler seems to be knuckling of late, and maybe the 29-year-old Zink will be everyone's favorite knuckleball prospect again soon.

Grady Little vs Byung-Hyun Kim

2008-06-08T20:48:00.010-04:00

Patrick Sullivan of Baseball Analysts thinks Grady Little may be to blame for the flameout of Byung-Hyun Kim. Sullivan reminds us how effective Kim was for the Red Sox in 2003.

After being acquired for Shea Hillenbrand on May 29, Kim recorded 69 strikeouts and only 18 walks in 79.3 innnings - good for a 3.18 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.

Not only that, but Kim was cruising heading into the playoffs, having been absolutely dominant down the stretch.

From September 1 onward, Kim held opposing batters to a .136/.208/.182. line.

That work was all but forgotten by the hometown fans when the Sox returned to Fenway down 0-2 to the A's in the ALDS. Hence his reception from the fans and the shot before the jump.
But was Kim really to blame for the Sox being in that 0-2 hole? As Sullivan explains it:

So what happened in Game One? Staked to a one-run lead heading into the bottom of the ninth, Little hands Kim the ball to nail the win down. He promptly induces a Ramon Hernandez fly-out before walking Billy McMillon and hitting Chris Singleton. With men on first and second, he then strikes out Mark Ellis. With two outs, two men on and his best relief pitcher on the hill, what does Grady do? He pulls Kim in favor of Alan Embree with lefties Erubiel Durazo and Eric Chavez set to hit.

Here's what Little might have considered; Embree that season yielded a .696 OPS against lefties, compared to Kim’s .664. Further, Kim had been Boston's Closer and had just struck out Ellis! With one out remaining and a one-run lead in the ninth, Grady opts for Embree, who promptly gives up a single to Durazo which plates the game tying run. Because the run is charged to Kim, he gets the Blown Save. Oakland wins in the twelfth.

Following the Game 3 incident with the fans, Grady benches Kim for the remainder of the playoffs. Kim was 24 at the time but has never been as good as he was in 2003 for the Sox.

Mike Lowell Interview

2008-06-08T20:42:00.003-04:00

Baseball Prospectus's David Lauria has an interview with Mike Lowell. Some highlights:

On Ozzie Guillen telling him to hit the ball as softly as he could:

"Sometimes when you’re pressing, you want to get a hit so bad that you look like you’re almost squeezing the bat into sawdust. What he meant there was to just relax, and if you try to take as soft a swing as possible, you still have to take a swing. He actually said to do that in batting practice, and that I’ll see that my hands will be able to feel free and flow smoothly. It sounded like an extreme comment, but I think that the result was basically telling the player to just relax and take it easy.'

June 1, 2008
Prospectus Q&A
Mike Lowell

by David Laurila

A World Series MVP, a cancer survivor, and a four-time All-Star, Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell is one of the most highly-respected players in the game. He is also an author, having chronicled his life in the recently-released Deep Drive: A Long Journey to Finding the Champion Within. The book was written with Red Sox beat writer Rob Bradford, who covers the team for the Boston Herald and writes the insightful and sabermetrically-friendly Bradford Files blog. David talked to Lowell about one of the subjects he covers in Deep Drive: his approach to hitting.

David Laurila: Prior to the 2006 season you called Gary Denbo, who had been one of your hitting coaches in the minor leagues, and told him, "I think that I’ve lost the ability to stay direct to the ball." What did you mean by that?

Mike Lowell: I’ve been the type of guy, being a right-handed pull hitter, that the pitch middle-in--and even a pitch that’s a ball or two inside and is probably a ball--I’ve always been able to hit that ball hard and fair. And I didn’t feel that I was able to do that. I think that in 2005, I tried to change a lot of things because I didn’t get off to a good start, and instead of sticking to the plan I was kind of looking for a quick fix. I think that in all of the tinkering that I did, I lost that ability. Whether it was a feel or whether it was the combination of what you think your body is doing and what it actually is doing--sometimes you’ll look at a video and see that it’s really not doing what you think it is. So that offseason, I kind of went back to square one, kind of like I was back in the minor leagues and trying to stay direct to the ball. Gary was the Yankees hitting director when I was in the Yankees system, so I felt that he was the guy to come back to. He almost exaggerates in the drill work, things like keeping your hands close to your body and making solid contact. When you can eke out a decent line drive with something so exaggerated, when the pitch is farther out and more into that power zone, it feels a lot more comfortable. I think that’s what I meant by telling him and what he did in turn when we had that three-day session that was mentioned in the book about how I could get back to where I wanted to be.

DL: You wrote about doing a lot of drill work hitting off a tee. How does hitting a stationary object help prepare you to hit a 95 mph fastball?

ML: Well, I don’t think the velocity helps at all, but one thing that you’re doing is establishing muscle memory and trying to reproduce the right swing. Being able to hit a 95 mph fastball is an instinctual thing; a God-given thing; if everyone could do it, being a major league baseball player wouldn’t be that big of a deal. The guys who have reached this level have that ability, so it becomes, "When you get to it, are you getting to it with the right approach; are you giving yourself the best percentage to get a base hit?" The proper mechanics can be repeated over and over. Plus, for practical reasons you can’t just find someone who can throw 95 and put him on the mound for you to work out.

DL: Denbo told you to "Hit the ball up the middle and remember how your muscles felt when you did that." Can muscle memory be isolated in that manner?

ML: I don’t think that you should think about it, but over time, with repetition, it’s something that just becomes natural. Especially during the game--if you’re thinking about anything besides the ball, you’re at a disadvantage right there. Your whole concentration has to be on the ball during the game. You can work on things during batting practice and during drill work, but you to have to rely on, and have confidence in, what your approach is and what your preparation was in order to be able to execute the same thing in a game.

DL: Writing about a session you had with Red Sox sport psychologist Don Kalkstein, you said "The usual thoughts of looking for a fastball on the middle of the plate or further inside were gone; if the ball looked good I was going to swing."

ML: Sometimes you believe that you can only do damage on one type of pitch, so what I think he wanted to do was just broaden the fact that for seven years in the big leagues I was able to get hits. My average was a little better than average for a major league baseball player. He said that he couldn’t believe that all of my hits were on pitches middle-in, that I must have gotten hits on pitches middle-away and even balls that might have been out and away. What he was trying to portray was that the ability is there to hit all kinds of pitches, because it’s been shown. If there was no track record, maybe we should be starting from a different point, but what Donny was saying was to not to try to be so perfect on the pitch and the swing. The swing is there, the ability is there, so just try to let it loose. That’s what he was trying to put across.

DL: A few pages later, you wrote, "My approach after a Donny talk is to look for my pitch until two strikes, middle-in." Is that at all contradictory to what you said earlier?

ML: What I meant is that you always have to make adjustments. There are certain pitchers who aren’t consistent in hitting their spots, and when I wrote that--I think that was actually a journal entry that I wrote--we were going through a batch of pitchers who notoriously weren’t like a Greg Maddux or a Tom Glavine or a Roy Halladay. Those are pitchers who hit their spots consistently and never miss toward the middle of the plate. So that was more a case of saying, 'Have more confidence in your ability than giving the pitcher the respect that he’s going to make his pitch every time.' So, in that sense, it’s kind of to look for my pitch, middle-in, until two strikes. With two strikes you just have to battle. It was basically not giving the pitcher the respect that he can repeat a pitcher’s pitch more than one time.

DL: You wrote about how when you got to Boston, (former) Red Sox hitting coach Ron Jackson was "looking for the perfect swing, and from where I was coming from that kind of expectation wasn’t an option." Can elaborate on that?

ML: That was Papa Jack: what he saw was video of the 2005 season. I think that during the offseason going into the 2006 season, there was a lot of work that was put into getting my approach back to where it had been before the 2005 season. So it was only natural for a hitting coach, if what he saw was the '05 swings, was that when that person comes to spring training you want to change him as well. With Ron Jackson, what I thought was happening those first couple of days in the spring is that we talked stride, we talked hands, and it was kind of, "Let’s do this today; let’s do that tomorrow," and I felt like that was a clutter of stuff. I wanted to work on what I had worked on in the offseason. And he accepted that; he was fine with it. It was just that in his initial conversation, with his desire being that he wanted his players to do well, he wanted to do everything he thought possible to get that perfect swing. But doing all of those adjustments, without having the same time under his belt knowing what I did in the offseason, it wasn’t an option.

DL: Ozzie Guillen once gave you hitting advice, telling you to try to hit the ball as softly as possible. What did he mean by that?

ML: Sometimes when you’re pressing, you want to get a hit so bad that you look like you’re almost squeezing the bat into sawdust. What he meant there was to just relax, and if you try to take as soft a swing as possible, you still have to take a swing. He actually said to do that in batting practice, and that I’ll see that my hands will be able to feel free and flow smoothly. It sounded like an extreme comment, but I think that the result was basically telling the player to just relax and take it easy.

DL: You wrote that, "it’s amazing how easy it is to forget the simplest things in the micromanaged world of baseball." With that in mind, to what extent do you use charts and video, and how much attention do you pay to stats like OPS?

ML: Well, when you’re talking about other players, I think OPS is significant, because usually the highest on-base percentage guys are the ones that are the highest run-scorers, and the highest slugging percentage guys are driving in most of the runs. So they go kind of hand in hand. The point of the game is to either score them or drive them in, so I think those two stats are very relevant when you’re talking about how runs can be produced. I just think that in baseball, sometimes we try to over-analyze everything because this is a very numbers-type sport--and that’s what makes it great. I rely on video a lot of time when I haven’t faced pitchers. You want to get an idea of what they do and about their last start; how they’ve been pitching this year. But I think experience is the most important thing. Video can tell you what’s going on, but I know how I felt the last time I was facing a Roy Halladay, or someone else within our division who I’ll have a lot of at-bats against. In that sense, for me, a lot of guys like to look at video a lot more and take what the video gives them, but if I have significant at-bats, say 15 or 20, against a pitcher, I like to draw off of my experience against them.

DL: How do you balance keeping things simple with knowing as much as you can about a pitcher?

ML: One is preparation, and the other is the game. You have to use the tools you feel comfortable with to prepare yourself for the game, and get yourself in a position where you’re taking a consistent swing. Once you feel that has been established you go into the game and rely on that and look for the ball. You try to keep it simple during the game, but you also have to use all of the tools that are available to you to help you prepare for that game.

David Laurila is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact David by clicking here or click here to see David's other articles.

Erik Bedard preview

2008-06-08T11:31:00.004-04:00

Today the Sox face a tough lefty in the Mariners' Erik Bedard.

After posting a great season for the Orioles last year, a season in which he struck out 221 batters, Bedard has come back to Earth some.

While part of that may be an infection from the M's absolutely sucking this season, a quick look at some of his peripheral numbers indicates that he may be as much to blame as poor support or defense. Last season Bedard struck out 9.6 batters per 9 innings while walking only 2.5.

This was good for 7.3 wins above what a replacement level starter would have earned.

This year he's striking out 2.2 less batters per 9 innings while walking 2 more.
That is a recipe for a serious drop off in production and that is just what we've seen from Bedard who is currently 4-4.

Pitches thrown:
Bedard throws his fastball at around 91-92 and his cutter at about 90.
He has about 5 inches of separation between the two pitches horizontally.
He also throws a curve at about 78mph.

Here is Bedard's movement chart:
Bedard likes to throw the fastball early in the count and when he is ahead in the count.

Surprisingly, he throws the curveball most frequently when he is behind in the count.

He mixes the cutter in with his fastball to keep hitters off balance as it is a few mph slower and a few inches further in on a right-handed batter.

Here is a table of what he throws and when:

  Fastball      Curve         Cutter
Count  Total Percent Total Percent Total Percent
0-0    103   52.28   66    33.5    28    14.21
0-1    54    52.43   35    33.98   14    13.59
0-2    26    55.32   15    31.91   6     12.77
1-0    32    45.07   29    40.85   10    14.08
1-1    45    60      24    32      6     8
1-2    52    66.67   20    25.64   6     7.69
2-0    15    55.56   5     18.52   7     25.93
2-1    10    30.3    19    57.58   4     12.12
2-2    36    60      18    30      6     10
3-0    5     62.5    0     0       3     37.5
3-1    8     66.67   2     16.67   2     16.67
3-2    10    33.33   16    53.33   4     13.33

Drew coming into his own

2008-06-08T11:14:00.002-04:00

The red-hot J.D. Drew's solid work this season has lessened the sting of the loss of David Ortiz.
Since a wrist injury robbed the Sox of Big Papi's services, J.D. Drew has been on an absolute tear.
Over that span, the rightfielder is batting .542/.613/1.125 with 3 homers 3 doubles and 8 RBI.
Drew has actually outperformed Ortiz on the season. Here are how the two's numbers stack up overall this season:


Player       AVG   OBP   SLG   2B   HR   RBI   VORP
Drew        .318  .417  .509   10   7    30    17.1
Ortiz       .252  .354  .486   10   13   43    14.1

Batista Preview

2008-06-07T18:44:00.003-04:00

Tonight the Sox face the Mariners Miguel Batista. The 37-year-old right-hander relies primarily on his cutter and sinking fastball. Batista throws the cutter at about 89 mph. The sinking fastball hits 93-94. Here is Batista's movement chart:

The chart is from the catcher's viewpoint and movement is compared to a pitch with no effect from spin.
Here is a detailed pitch chart:



Type      vert.  horiz    Speed   #       %
Sinker   -7.67   5.9      93.45   841    32.81
Curve     4.18   1.45     78.06   229    8.93
Slider    0.71   8.25     83.99   3      0.12
Change   -5.96   5.69     83.08   252    9.83
Cutter    2.31   4.54     88.65  1238    48.3

Top 150 Prospects

2007-03-06T07:52:00.000-05:00

Rotoworld has come out with its top 150 prospects. In order to be eligible, players must have no more than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors. Also, they cannot have spent more than 45 non-September days on an active roster.

Here are some highlights:

1. Delmon Young - OF Devil Rays - DOB: 09/14/85 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2004 #13, mid-2004 #4, 2005 #2, mid-2005 #2, 2006 #1, mid-2006 #1

.316/.341/.474, 8 HR, 59 RBI, 65/15 K/BB, 22 SB in 342 AB for Triple-A Durham
.317/.336/.476, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 24/1 K/BB, 2 SB in 126 AB for Tampa Bay

Young did little to enhance his stock after entering 2006 as the game's best prospect, but the drop in power and the pathetic walk rate weren't enough to cost him his placement. Neither was the ugly incident in April in which he threw a bat at an umpire and drew a 50-game suspension. There's no doubt Young is going to hit for power. He'll have 30- or maybe even 40-homer ability in his prime. Also, he makes contact often enough that he's not going to need to walk to be a very good player. He'll probably be a 50-walk guy someday anyway. It'd be quite a disappointment if he didn't go to at least a few All-Star Games in his career.

2. Alex Gordon - 3B Royals - DOB: 02/10/84 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2006 #11, mid-2006 #3

.325/.427/.588, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 113/72 K/BB, 22 SB in 486 AB for Double-A Wichita

Mark Teahen had a breakthrough season in 2006, but he's about to get shoved to the outfield to make room for the Royals' best prospect in decades. Gordon signed too late to play in the minors in 2005 after being drafted second overall out of the University of Nebraska, but a solid showing in the AFL gave the Royals few reservations about having him begin 2006 in Double-A and he was one of the best players in the Texas League from day one. Gordon combines 30-homer power with some terrific on-base skills. It shouldn't be long before he's hitting .290-.300 in the majors, and he'll be a factor on the basepaths, though odds are that he's not going to last as a basestealer. With questions about his ability to stay at third base seemingly answered, he has a chance to be an MVP candidate at his peak. The Royals will give him every opportunity to make the team out of the spring training.

3. Philip Hughes - RHP Yankees - DOB: 06/24/86 - ETA: June 2007
Previous rankings: mid-2005 #47, 2006 #29, mid-2006 #6

2-3, 1.80 ERA, 19 H, 30/2 K/BB in 30 IP for Single-A Tampa
10-3, 2.25 ERA, 73 H, 138/32 K/BB in 116 IP for Double-A Trenton

Hughes, a 2004 first-round pick, emerged as the game's top pitching prospect in a 2006 in which he limited hitters to a .179 average and struck out nearly five batters for every one he walked. With plenty of movement on his 91-94 mph fastball and a curveball that's become a dominant second pitch, he has ace upside. His third pitch is a changeup that's a little above average. Since he doesn't have far to go when it comes to command, he'd likely have success in a major league rotation right now. The Yankees, though, would prefer to not have to turn to him right away. Barring injury, he should be up for good by midseason.

17. Jose Tabata - OF Yankees - DOB: 08/12/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2006 #136, mid-2006 #18

.298/.377/.420, 5 HR, 51 RBI, 66/30 K/BB, 15 SB in 319 AB for low Single-A Charleston

Tabata more than held his own as a 17-year-old in full-season ball, though he did decline rather than improve as the year went on. Part of the problem was a hand injury suffered in July. He later aggravated the injury in Venezuela, where he hit .275/.392/.422 in 51 at-bats. A center fielder initially as a pro, Tabata made the move to right last year and should stay there. He has a great idea of what he should be doing at the plate for someone so young, and he's likely to develop 30-35 homer power. While he's not going to reach the majors anytime soon, he looks like a potential star.

41. Dustin Pedroia - 2B Red Sox - DOB: 08/17/83 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2005 #61, mid-2005 #27, 2006 #23, mid-2006 #30

.305/.384/.426, 5 HR, 50 RBI, 27/48 K/BB, 1 SB in 423 AB for Triple-A Pawtucket
.191/.258/.303, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 7/7 K/BB, 0 SB in 89 AB for Boston

The general view seems to be that Pedroia's stock has fallen over the last year, but after a slow start brought on by a shoulder injury suffered in spring training, he was productive as a 22-year-old in Triple-A, batting .330 and slugging .461 in 282 at-bats. Also, he showed terrific range at second base, the position that figures to be his long-term home. More than anything else, it was his arm that got him taken off shortstop. He did make the mistake of swinging for the fences too often after reaching the majors, but that's something time can take care of. The Arizona State product will be decent this year, and he should settle in as an above average regular beginning in 2008.

42. Jacoby Ellsbury - OF Red Sox - DOB: 09/11/83 - ETA: April 2008
Previous rankings: 2006 #138, mid-2006 #67

.299/.379/.418, 4 HR, 32 RBI, 28/25 K/BB, 25 SB in 244 AB for Single-A Wilmington
.308/.387/.434, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 25/24 K/BB, 16 SB in 198 AB for Double-A Portland
.276/.342/.371, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 16/8 K/BB, 7 SB in 105 AB for Peoria (AFL)

What Ellsbury lacks in offensive upside, he makes up for with potential Gold Glove defense in center field. The 2005 first-round pick out of Oregon State was one of the premier defenders in the minors last season, and he could offer just enough with the bat to be a leadoff man in the majors. The left-handed hitter shows gap power and the ability to hit for average. A few more walks would be nice, but at least he doesn't strike out very often. He'd probably be able to hold his own in the majors this year if Coco Crisp gets hurt again. A strong season split between Double- and Triple-A would make Crisp expendable next winter.

45. Clay Buchholz - RHP Red Sox - DOB: 08/14/84 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #122

9-4, 2.62 ERA, 78 H, 117/29 K/BB in 103 IP for low Single-A Greenville
2-0, 1.13 ERA, 10 H, 23/4 K/BB in 16 IP for Single-A Wilmington

Buchholz was supposed to something of a raw product after getting drafted 41st overall out of a Texas junior college in 2005, but he's opened his pro career with a 2.47 ERA and a 185/42 K/BB ratio in 160 1/3 innings. Now it looks like the Red Sox could have him start this year at Double-A, though that's in large part because they don't want him to have to deal with the harsh environment at Lancaster in the California League. Buchholz works comfortably in the low-90s and has four pitches, though his curve lags behind his slider and change. As impressive as his command is, he would seem to have No. 2-starter potential.

56. Humberto Sanchez - RHP Yankees - DOB: 05/28/83 - ETA: Aug. 2007
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #29

5-3, 1.76 ERA, 47 H, 86/27 K/BB in 71 2/3 IP for Double-A Erie
5-3, 3.86 ERA, 50 H, 43/20 K/BB in 51 1/3 IP for Triple-A Toledo

After posting a 5.21 ERA at Single-A Lakeland in 2004 and a 5.56 ERA at Double-A Erie in 2005, Sanchez finally began to fulfill his potential last season, at least until he hurt his elbow in July. He made just one start over the final six weeks of the season. Sanchez has always had big-time stuff, but inconsistency, along with questions about his arm, has led many to believe his future may lie in the pen. It's more likely that he'll end up there now that he's a Yankee, the result of the Gary Sheffield trade. Sanchez can throw in the mid-90s and his hard curveball is quite a strikeout pitch. He'll probably reach the Bronx as a middle reliever before the end of the year.

92. George Kottaras - C Red Sox - DOB: 05/16/83 - ETA: April 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2005 #102, 2006 #89, mid-2006 #71

.276/.394/.451, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 68/50 K/BB, 0 SB in 257 AB for Double-A Mobile
.210/.286/.361, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 30/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 119 AB for Triple-A Portland

Kottaras, who was picked up from the Padres for David Wells at the end of August, possesses rare on-base ability for a catcher and appears likely to develop 15- homer power.
His status as a prospect, though, hinges on his ability to stay behind the plate.
He's not fast enough to become an option at another key position, so if he has to move, he'd be a first baseman or a corner outfielder. Kottaras has enough of an arm to be an adequate catcher if he can make enough progress on the other parts of his game.
The Red Sox have no intention of having him change positions anytime soon.
Ideally, he'd make enough progress defensively this year that he could begin splitting time with the aging Jason Varitek in 2008.

97. Michael Bowden - RHP Red Sox - DOB: 09/09/86 - ETA: 2009
Previous rankings: none

9-6, 3.51 ERA, 91 H, 118/31 K/BB in 107 2/3 IP for low Single-A Greenville
0-0, 9.00 ERA, 9 H, 3/1 K/BB in 5 IP for Single-A Wilmington

Bowden was taken six spots after Clay Buchholz in the 2005 draft and the two are often compared to one another. Bowden has the advantage of youth and his curveball is probably a better weapon than any of Buchholz's offspeed pitches. Still, he gets dropped a bit here because of a delivery that could lead to arm problems down the line. Also, his changeup doesn't quite measure up. He has plenty of potential if his elbow and shoulder hold up. Still, it'd be no surprise if physical problems get him sent to the bullpen someday.

116. Daniel Bard - RHP Red Sox - DOB: 06/25/85 - ETA: 2009
Previous rankings: none

Globe suspends Borges

2007-03-06T07:45:00.000-05:00

The Boston Globe has suspended sportswriter Ron Borges after learning that he plagiarized much of his football column this week.

The Globe's editor, Martin Baron, said in a story posted on the newspaper's Web site that Borges had included in his football notes column last Sunday material written by Mike Sando, a reporter for The News Tribune of Tacoma, Wash.

The allegations of plagiarism first arose on a Web site, coldhardfootballfacts.com:

Simply note the incredible similarities between his “Football Notes” column in the Boston Globe on Sunday, March 4, and this story written by Mike Sando and published in the News Tribune of Tacoma, Washington, on Feb. 25.
We'll call a spade a spade here: Borges apparently lifted great stretches of his column from a previously published report. The question now is if his editors at the Globe will once again go to bat for him after another ethically malignant tumor of a column.

Here are two sections of each story that you can judge for yourself:
Sando:

But trouble arose in March 2004 when former Seahawks president Bob Whitsitt allegedly shorted Jackson on a contract offer. Jackson said he signed the deal anyway at the urging of his father, who has since died. Whitsitt has dismissed the charge as preposterous, while Ruskell has resisted honoring a promise that a predecessor denies making.

The dispute has escalated ever since, with the Seahawks and Jackson’s agents exchanging a series of blunt letters, sources said.

When Ruskell became Seahawks president in February 2005, one of his first moves was to issue a letter to players outlining his expectations. He urged full participation in the team’s offseason program, including minicamps, but Jackson let it be known he would honor his contract but nothing more. Jackson subsequently skipped the voluntary portions of minicamps.

The relationship soured further after Jackson suffered a knee injury during an Oct. 2, 2005, game at Washington.

Jackson had bruised the knee earlier and experienced pain following a Sept. 25 game against Arizona. He suffered cartilage damage against the Redskins, raising questions in his mind about whether he should have been on the field at all, sources said.

The damage did not show up on initial tests. The team recommended rest. Holmgren avoided giving a timetable other than to say he thought it would be “shorter more than longer” after speaking with Jackson. The team ruled out Jackson for the next game.

Here is what Borges wrote:

Trouble arose with Seahawks management two years ago after former team president Bob Whitsitt allegedly shorted Jackson on a contract offer. Jackson said he signed the deal anyway at the urging of his father. Whitsitt has dismissed the charge as preposterous, while present club president Tim Ruskell has refused to honor a promise that another person denies making. The dispute has escalated, with the Seahawks and Jackson's agents exchanging blunt letters.

When Ruskell became Seahawks president in February 2005, one of his first moves was to issue a letter to players outlining his expectations. He urged full participation in the team's offseason program, including minicamps, but Jackson let it be known he would honor his contract, but nothing more. Jackson subsequently skipped the voluntary portions of minicamps.

Problems continued after Jackson suffered a right knee injury on Oct. 2, 2005, against Washington. Jackson had bruised the knee earlier in the season and he suffered cartilage damage against the Redskins, raising questions in his mind about whether he should have been on the field.

The cartilage damage did not show up on initial tests, and the team recommended rest. The team ruled out Jackson for the next game. Jackson, acting on the advice of his agents, sought a second opinion and later underwent surgery to repair the lateral meniscus in his right knee.

Pitching v. hitting prospects

2007-03-05T16:40:00.000-05:00

Nate Silver has an interesting piece in Baseball Prospectus today in which he argues that hitting prospects are more likely to improve than pitching prospects.
"One thing that distinguishes young hitters from young pitchers is that young hitters can pretty much count on making steady improvements from the time they start playing professional ball until the time they’re 26 or 27.
The same is not the case with pitching prospects. Although there are a few categories of pitching prospects — particularly guys with good stuff, high strikeout rates and highish walk rates — that tend to improve more often than not, in general there is no systematic pattern of improvement after the age of 21 or so.
Sometimes guys get better, of course, and sometimes they do so in a hurry — but you can’t take a young pitcher in a vacuum and expect him to improve the same way that you can for a hitting prospect.
Young pitchers often take less time to become dominant big league performers. Pitching, somewhat contrary to the mad genius reputation of pitchers like Greg Maddux, is more of a purely physical skill and less of a learned behavior than hitting is. Pitchers like Francisco Liriano and Jered Weaver and Cole Hamels — these guys weren’t just holding their own last year, they were among the very best pitchers in baseball. Someone like Philip Hughes might very well be as effective today as he’s ever going to be, before he’s had a chance for injuries and mileage to accumulate. Keeping those guys down on the farm is not conservative — it’s a downright irresponsible way to run a ballclub.

Lester pitches again

2007-03-05T16:36:00.000-05:00

Jon Lester pitched in game conditions for the first time since August.
As quoted by Nick Cafardo:

“There were some nerves. I didn’t know where the first pitch was going to go, but it was a strike. ... I wasn’t worried about how many pitches or innings I threw; I just wanted to throw well and move on to the next step.”

"It's great. Just to get back and be normal again is awesome. Just to get back on the mound and throw the baseball and not worry about other things. So it's good and I enjoyed it and, hopefully, we just build from here."

On whether he was frustrated about not going beyond one inning: “No, I understand, I know that the team has my best interests at heart... I'll get my work in one way or the other, so we'll just take it slow and go from here."

Asked about the strength in his legs, Lester said that it wasn’t where it should be, but that he was about 85 percent to 90 percent there.

Lester will throw next in a bullpen session on Wednesday then pitch one inning Saturday in a simulated game against Boston teammates. With a very solid starting rotation, the Red Sox don't have to rush him.

Donnelly overtaking Pineiro?

2007-03-05T16:31:00.000-05:00

Joel Pineiro was charged with four runs in 1 innings yesterday, giving him a 15.43 ERA through two spring appearances. The struggles might leave him with an uphill climb to overtake Brendan Donnelly in the closer’s race. The other top candidate, Julian Tavarez, pitched a 1-2-3 eighth inning, but has a 13.50 ERA so far, while Mike Timlin has been held out of action due to a sore left oblique muscle.

Donnelly has tossed two scoreless innings this spring.

“He’s not scared,” manager Terry Francona said. “He’s the kind of guy who wants the ball when the game’s still in doubt. We have room for guys like that.”

Manny Delcarmen had a rough day, giving up three runs in the top of the ninth inning that allowed the Phillies to break a 6-6 tie.

2 Manny notes

2007-03-05T16:28:00.000-05:00

- Julio Lugo was spotted in spring training wearing a black shirt that read "Manny Being Manny" and had a bunch of Manny's statistics. Lugo said Ramirez gave out the shirts.
- Terry Francona on how he spent his day home with the flu:

"I was watching the Anna Nicole trial and looking to see if Manny showed up at that."

Pavano to be traded?

2007-03-05T16:23:00.000-05:00

George King reports that the Yankees may be auditioning Carl Pavano to potential trade partners. As King notes, If the Yanks will swallow $15MM or so of Pavano's $23MM over the next two
seasons, they can clear a spot for Phil Hughes and pick up a prospect.
The Yanks (and lots of scouts) apparently believe Hughes is ready to be one of their best starters right now.
Pavano didn't embarrass himself or get injured facing the tough Phillies
lineup this afternoon. He faced off with Cole Hamels, allowing one run
in two innings of work. The Cardinals and Rockies have shown interest in
the past.
Pavano only recorded 16 strikes out of the 33 pitches he threw.

Schilling adds to arsenal

2007-03-05T16:16:00.000-05:00

Curt Schilling has added a change-up to his resume: "It's been something I’ve worked on, meddled with for three years now and I think it’s to the point now where I can take it
and make it a plus pitch.”
Schilling said he threw 9 or 10 change-ups in the 3 1/3 innings he threw in the Sox 6-1 victory
against the Twins.
Unlike the changeup of Daisuke Matsuzaka or Pedro Martinez, each of
which breaks down, Schilling’s circle-grip changeup comes at the batter
straight, with little to no action. But by throwing with the same arm
action as his fastball, Schilling’s goal is to mess with the hitter’s
timing and get some bad swings that will translate into outs.
“I think it’s good enough to be my No. 2 pitch on some nights, that’s
why I’m starting to use it,” Schilling said. “It’s the pitch I can
strike people out with, get strikes with, it’s going to be an integral
part of my spring training and hopefully be an integral part of my
success this year. It’s a pitch that brings pitch counts down. You get
more contact, get quicker outs if you can command it and throw it in the
strike zone.”
Jason Varitek liked how hitters reacted yesterday.
“He threw some really good ones,” Varitek said. “The velocity was good
and there was good change of pace for him. The separation was good.”

Ultimate Galactic Dragon Gyroball Pitch Power Explosion

2007-03-02T08:11:00.000-05:00

The Onion loves Dice-K:
BOSTON—Now that Manny Ramirez has reported to camp and the spring-training opener against Minnesota is in the books, Red Sox fans are turning their attention to the awesome power rumored to dwell within much-touted off-season pitching acquisition Daisuke Matsuzaka—a man who many say possesses pitching powers and techniques beyond the comprehension of mortal fans.
"Daisuke is the pitching master!" said Boston Globe baseball columnist Bob Ryan, hopping from one foot to the other as he described videotape footage of Matsuzaka's otherworldly pitching power and control banishing a flock of evil, conniving, left-handed-batting carp-spirits to the netherworld during a 2003 Seibu Lions game. "His Ultimate Galactic Dragon Gyroball Pitch Power Explosion breaks three feet inside before cutting sharply toward the dugout, where falsehood and cowardice are forced to shrink before it!"
"Battle on, Daisuke! Wither their spirits with your mystical Four Winds Split-Finger Shottu-jitsu! Repel their cruel affronts with your Triple-Star Cut-Fastball Technique of the Joyous Uplifting Dynamo, clocked at a respectable 96 miles per hour! And baffle their comprehension and deceive in turn their deceitful hearts with your Two-Seam Shadow-Strike Clouded-Eye Shinobi Sinker!" said 44-year-old accountant and spring-training attendee Roger Fettleman, quoting the back of Matsuzaka's Red Sox rookie card almost word for word as he watched the right-hander warm up in the bullpen before his first Grapefruit League start. "Truly, it is within your grasp to go 16-4 with an ERA under 4.00!"

BA talks with Jed Hoyer

2007-03-02T08:05:00.000-05:00

The Baseball Analysts has a chat with Sox Assistant General Manager Jed Hoyer, who started with the organization as an intern and has worked his way up. Some highlights:
On last year's disappointment:

We weren't good enough in 2006. When we were relatively injury-free through July, we played well. But once we started getting banged up, we fell quickly. That's not an excuse at all, because the mark of a good team is one that is deep enough to overcome injuries.
In 2005, we made the playoffs without Schilling or Foulke for most of the season. In 2004, we didn't have Nomar or Trot for long stretches. Last year, we weren't deep enough in the rotation or the lineup to sustain injuries. This off-season we tried to add more bats, with Drew and Lugo, to take some of the pressure off Ortiz and Manny. We were last in baseball in OPS out of the #5 hole in the lineup (.683) and we felt that we couldn't endure that again. Also, we added Matsuzaka and Papelbon to the rotation, and we have a number of solid options behind our top 5. Our team is deeper offensively and deeper in starting pitching and I think that will allow us to endure the bumps in the road that inevitably crop up during a six-month season.

On the Sox bullpen:

If a Wagner or Ryan had been available this winter, we certainly would have attempted to land such a proven closer. But since that type of pitcher wasn't available, we tried to acquire as many good relievers as possible and we are confident one of them will emerge as a solid closer.

Q: Who has the best fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup in the system?

I guess my evaluation would be - Fastball (Bard), Curveball (Bowden), Slider and Changeup (Buchholz).

Baseball America's Top 100

2007-03-02T08:02:00.000-05:00

Baseball America has come out with their list of the top 100 prospects in baseball. Here's where the Red Sox fit in, starting with the Demon Mystery Pitch man himself:
1. DAISUKE MATSUZAKA, rhp, Red Sox
Who needs a gyroball? He has six pitches that grade out as plus or plus-plus at their best, and he'll be the best Japanese import ever. And no, we're not forgetting about Ichiro
Opening Day Age: 26. ETA: 2007

33 JACOBY ELLSBURY, of, Red Sox
Boston downplays Johnny Damon comparisons, but the parallels are hard to ignore
Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2008

51 CLAY BUCHHOLZ, rhp, Red Sox
His fastball hit 97 mph at the end of last season, and at times it's his fourth-best pitch
Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2008

81 DANIEL BARD, rhp, Red Sox
His fastball eats up bats like few others, thanks to its velocity (up to 100 mph) and heavy life
Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2009

Sox over Northeastern 11-0

2007-03-02T07:58:00.000-05:00

Josh Beckett made his spring debut with a solid 2 innings against the Huskies.
David Gustafson opened the game by lining a first-pitch fastball off the end of the bat and into right field for an opposite-field single, but Beckett responded by retiring six straight batters, including the next four on strikeouts.
“There are things you want to work on every spring, and for me, it’s throwing offspeed pitches for strikes, which I did pretty well today,” Beckett said. “It doesn’t matter what lineup you’re facing - college, minor league or major league - if it’s something you need to work on, you’ve got to do it.”
He threw 21 pitches, 18 of them for strikes. It was good to see Red Sox pitchers refrain from allowing a single walk yesterday.
Wily Mo Pena is also off to a good start with 3 hits and 0 strikeouts in his first 5 at bats.
Tomorrow the Red Sox have two more games:
At 12:30 Manny Ramirez will make his Spring Training debut against the Blue Jays and at 6:05 Daisuke Matsuzaka will make his debut against Boston College. Both Donnelly and Okajima are scheduled to pitch tomorrow against the Blue Jays. Kyle Jackson and Nick Debarr will pitch against Boston College.

104 - 58?

2007-03-01T09:00:00.000-05:00

Keith Woolner is projecting the Red Sox to go 104-58 this season, thanks to a deeper rotation and a more powerful offense. Some highlights:

The Red Sox scored 820 runs last year. Add 15 runs for Pedroia over Loretta, 30 runs for Lugo over Gonzalez, and 20 runs for a return to form by Varitek. Pencil in 25 more runs for a reasonably healthy Drew over Nixon. Crisp's return offsets Ortiz's regression to his established level of play, and everyone else maintains their 2006 level of production, on average. That yields a net increase of 90 runs, or 910 runs scored.

As we all know, health will be a big concern for the team:

If Schilling and Wakefield combine for 48 starts, it will be the fourth-highest total any team has gotten from a pair of 40+ year olds since 1960. Charlie Hough and Nolan Ryan combined for 62 and 61 starts in 1989-90. The highest total was set by the 2003 Yankees, who had Roger Clemens and David Wells combining for 63 starts.

Woolner predicts that an improvement in the offense will be a big factor:

Although Boston is traditionally thought of as a slugging ballclub, they ranked only 6th in runs per game in the 2006 AL, and 9th in scoring on the road, where they don't get the Fenway Park boost. A healthy Crisp should return to an above-average starter in center, and Drew should easily outhit departed fan-favorite Trot Nixon when he's able to play. Even when Drew is unable to play, the Red Sox may have the best fourth outfielder in baseball in Wily Mo Pena. The team needs to count on a rebound from Varitek, as the catching options behind him are downright frightening (the even older Doug Mirabelli, and promising but not major-league-ready George Kottaras). Pedroia is well-known to be a PECOTA favorite, replacing Mark Loretta's below-average bat with a solid package of average, patience, and defense. Lugo should be a dramatic upgrade offensively from Alex Gonzalez, even if he declines from his 2006 numbers. Only David Ortiz had what would be termed a career year last year, so none of the other players should be expected to slide significantly.

Woolner sums it up thusly:

Combined, the offense and pitching in our rosy scenario post a 560 VORP. That would lead to a projected record of 104-58, and while any 100-win team has a legitimate shot at the World Series, those with three dominating starting pitchers do better than those with equivalent-but-deeper total talent. If Schilling, Beckett, and Matsuzaka are humming along, the wait for the next Red Sox World Championship won't be anywhere near as long as the last one.

Schilling sharp in opener

2007-03-01T08:50:00.000-05:00

Obviously you take spring training games for what they're worth (especially the first one), but Curt Schilling looked good last night on the mound - in terms of his pitches, that is, the gut was there for all to see.
"I felt a little stronger than I thought I would, which was nice," said Schilling. "But this was not even close to stretching it out. I would have liked to have kept going, but we have a lot of guys here who need innings."
Schill threw 19 pitches, 18 of them fastballs, and 15 for strikes. Nice to see the control that has made him what he is already there in game 1.
He even did a nice job covering first on a grounder by Joe Mauer.
While it was only the first game, who doubts that the media would be all over his weight issues if the outing had gone poorly?
On another pitching note, Manager Terry Francona said that he does not expect to leave spring training with a long relief pitcher and that he plans to take the best 11 or 12 pitchers with the team, regardless of their ability to go multiple innings on short notice.
“The one thing I’m not looking for out of the bullpen is the so-called ‘long guy,’ that when a guy gets knocked out, he can eat up innings,” Francona said. “That happens every couple of weeks. I’d rather have a bullpen that can try to get outs, and if we run into that disaster, we’ll piece it together, and, if we have to call somebody up, we will.
Should make it difficult for the Kyle Snyder's of the world to make the club.

Murray Chass v. Baseball Prospectus

2007-02-28T08:14:00.000-05:00

An interesting little tiff opened up today between NY Times baseball writer Murray Chass and Baseball Prospectus.
Chass, if you recall, is the writer who continues to insist that the Red Sox should face tampering charges for the J.D. Drew situation, apparently unable to fathom how Scott Boras would advise his client to seek more than the guaranteed 3 year, $33 million deal he had with the Dodgers.
Chass started the fracas with his latest column, in which he rails about "Things I don’t want to read or hear about anymore."
While most of us probably agree with some of his topics, this one caught the eye of BP:

Statistics mongers promoting VORP and other new-age baseball statistics.
I receive a daily e-mail message from Baseball Prospectus, an electronic publication filled with articles and information about statistics, mostly statistics that only stats mongers can love.
To me, VORP epitomized the new-age nonsense. For the longest time, I had no idea what VORP meant and didn’t care enough to go to any great lengths to find out. I asked some colleagues whose work I respect, and they didn’t know what it meant either.
Finally, not long ago, I came across VORP spelled out. It stands for value over replacement player. How thrilling. How absurd. Value over replacement player. Don’t ask what it means. I don’t know.
I suppose that if stats mongers want to sit at their computers and play with these things all day long, that’s their prerogative. But their attempt to introduce these new-age statistics into the game threatens to undermine most fans’ enjoyment of baseball and the human factor therein.
People play baseball. Numbers don’t.

Without mentioning the obvious fact that Chass only gets that email from BP because he pays for a subscription, Executive VP Nate Silver had this response:

Fans today have a lot of choices about how they consume baseball in general, and their baseball media in particular. Baseball Prospectus’ mission is to provide them with an informed and independent perspective that helps to accentuate their enjoyment of the game.

Sometimes, our arguments involve statistical analysis and sometimes they do not. To the extent that we use statistics, we look at them as part of the puzzle rather than the whole picture. We do, however, try and ensure that where statistics are used, they are used correctly. We have argued, for example, that the writers who selected Justin Morneau over Derek Jeter in the American League MVP balloting made a mistake not because they didn’t use statistics, but because they used statistics in the wrong way. They focused on Morneau’s RBI total, while ignoring that Jeter did a far superior job of getting on base, plays a much more difficult defensive position — and actually did a better job than Morneau of knocking runners in from scoring position when he had the opportunities.

We have found that millions of baseball fans appreciate our perspective on issues like these. At worst, we hope to offer them a choice. At best, we hope to increase the caliber of baseball discussion, and to give them another way to love and enjoy the game.

I would personally invite you to attend one of the events on our book tour, to appear on Baseball Prospectus Radio, or to participate in a baseball prospectus chat. I think you will be pleasantly surprised by how much you have in common with our readers. We are all baseball fans first, and we come carrying neither agendas nor pocket protectors. Alternatively, I am in New York frequently, and would invite you to attend a Yankees or Mets game with me. You have done a lot for the game of baseball and it would be a pleasure to meet you. I hope that your comments today reflected nothing more than a lack of familiarity with our people and our product.

Seth Mnookin, author of Feeding The Monster, had this to say:

Murray Chass defends his right to be ignorant, uninformed:
It’s been a good long time since I’ve heard a reporter actually brag about his total and utter lack of curiosity regarding his work. One of the biggest changes in baseball over the last decade has been the emphasis on using everything possible to understand the game. This doesn’t undermine enjoyment of the game any more than learning the historical references contained in Shakespeare plays leeches the enjoyment out of a night at the theatre.
Information is knowledge, as that hoary old cliche goes. Lord knows Murray ain’t much one for knowledge — he practically shouts his ignorance from the rooftops every time he puts pen to paper — but it’s embarrassing for him to beat his chest about it.
If a fan doesn’t want to get bogged down in the minutia of VORP or OPS or equivalent averages, that’s all well and good; I loved watching baseball in the days when I couldn’t identify a breaking ball from high and tight heat. But if it was my job to watch baseball games and then inform the public about these very same games, I’d sure as shit make sure I knew everything I could about the sport, regardless of what language I used to write about what was taking place on the field.
And anyone who thinks that being better informed makes for a less enjoyable day at the ballpark clearly hasn’t ever watched a game with Bill James.

I'll try to do a note on VORP and it's pros and cons later this week, but any thoughts?

Upcoming pitchers

2007-02-26T10:54:00.000-05:00

Here's the breakdown of likely pitchers in the Sox upcoming games:

Wed 02/28 v Twins: Curt Schilling
Thu 03/01 v Blue Jays: Kason Gabbard
Thu 03/01 v Northeastern: Josh Beckett
Fri 03/02 v Blue Jays: Kyle Snyder
Fri 03/02 v Boston College: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Sat 03/03 v Phillies: Tim Wakefield/Jonathan Papelbon

All our bullpen options should get a chance to pitch this week. I'm looking forward to taking a look at the team's less heralded Japanese import: Hideki Okajima.
Here are a few other sox stories from this morning:

Mike Timlin left practice early yesterday with cramping in his back:

“It cramped up. What am I going to do?” he shrugged. “It’s not like I’ve torn anything, and I’m not dead. I’ll be OK.”

Manny Delcarmen will need to impress to start the season in the majors:

“I think he would be in a development stage or progression toward the back end of the game,” New Sox pitching coach John Farrell said. “He’s in competition for a spot in the bullpen, but I think repeating his delivery and executing his pitches consistently is the first step.”

The closer question

2007-02-26T09:52:00.000-05:00

With several pitchers in camp auditioning for the closer role, it appears that Joel Pineiro is going to get the first crack. We'll begin our pitcher-by-pitcher look at the team's options with Pineiro today.
As Gordon Edes notes, of all American League pitchers who threw at least 150 innings last season, only one had an earned run average over 6. That was Pineiro, whose 6.36 ERA was the worst in the majors. Only two AL pitchers this decade who threw 150 or more innings had a higher ERA: Jose Lima (6.99 for Kansas City in 2005) and David Cone (6.91 for the Yankees in 2000).
Not exactly a track record that inspires confidence for a team hoping to challenge for a championship.
Pineiro did perform marginally better in 12 relief appearances last year, and the Sox scouts must have seen something in those outings to give him a $4 million deal.

"One thing we saw in our scouting evaluations," pitching coach John Farrell said, "was that in short stints, his velocity got back up to the mid-90s, and the action and life to his pitches increased in short stints. I think short stints and an aggressive mentality fits well for him. It's a change in role that No. 1, he's accepting of. He throws strikes with three pitches, he's got some late action. We feel like this is the right spot."

Should Sox have extended Schilling?

2007-02-26T09:39:00.000-05:00

With the return of Notes for the 2007 season, I'd like to start off with the hot topic on Boston sports radio: did the Sox make the right decision in declining Curt Schilling's offer of a one-year extension at the same $13 million he's making now? I think everyone would agree that the 2006 Schilling is certainly worth $13 million, but what can we realistically expect for a 40-year-old pitcher over the next two years? Schilling did slow down a bit late in the season last year:


Month   ERA    K/9   BB/9  HR/9  K/BB
April   2.88   8.9   1.5   0.89   5.71
May     5.23   6.9   0.6   1.65  12.50
June    2.58   8.1   1.1   1.1    7.40
July    4.74   8.5   0.9   1.66   9.00
Aug     5.22   7.5   1.4   1.36   5.50
Sept    1.50   9.0   3.0   0.00   3.00

Much has been made that he supposedly showed up a little fatter than expected to spring training, but it remains to be seen if that's really an issue. If it was a question of whether to extend him for this season at that money I don't think there would be an argument, regardless of his numbers in July and August, but that option vested when the Sox won the Series in '04.
I think you're likely to see a very similar season from Schilling in 2007, with a slight decline. I'd expect a 3.75 ERA, a few less strikeouts, but continued success at avoiding walks keeping him as a top 25 pitcher. What do you think?

Worst outfield arms?

2006-12-07T18:05:00.000-05:00

Keith Woolner at Baseball Prospectus just came out with a short piece on the worst outfield arms in baseball. Interesting idea, but his methodology leaves a little to be desired. Woolner compares which outfields did the best at keeping runners from scoring from second on a single. He compares teams' success compared to the league average, which allows runners to score 60% of the time.

The good news? The Red Sox don't make the list. The bad news? The numbers aren't park-adjusted, so Fenway's short left field may be skewing things in our favor.

Here's the worst:


Team  Players                      R   RS   %  Diff
TBA   Crawford-Baldelli-Hollins    32  26 .813 -6.8
SFN   Bonds-Finley-Winn            49  36 .735 -6.6
NYA   Cabrera-Damon-Williams       35  26 .743 -5.0
WAS   Soriano-Byrd-Guillen         44  31 .705 -4.6
PIT   Bay-Bautista-Wilson          31  23 .742 -4.4
LAN   Ethier-Lofton-Drew           46  32 .696 -4.4
TBA   Crawford-Gathright-Hollins   40  27 .675 -3.0
SLN   Taguchi-Edmonds-Encarnacion  49  32 .653 -2.6
SFN   Bonds-Winn-Alou              38  25 .658 -2.2

Here's the best:


Team  Players                      R   RS   %  Diff
TOR   Johnson-Wells-Rios           71  29 .408 13.6
DET   Monroe-Granderson-Ordonez    86  41 .477 10.6
TOR   Catalanotto-Wells-Rios       42  18 .429  7.2
OAK   Payton-Kotsay-Bradley        48  22 .458  6.8
SEA   Ibanez-Reed-Ichiro           65  33 .508  6.0
CIN   Dunn-Griffey-Kearns          61  31 .508  5.6
KCA   Brown-DeJesus-Sanders        46  22 .478  5.6
ANA   Rivera-Figgins-Guerrero      52  26 .500  5.2
ATL   Langerhans-Jones-Francoeur   110 61 .555  5.0

Break from the hot stove

2006-12-07T08:21:00.000-05:00

Taking a breather from all the rumors and new player discussions, here is some random baseball stuff that's pretty interesting:

Sox infielder Alex Cora had the longest plate appearance that ended in a walk last season. On April 27th, he took a free pass from Cleveland's Paul Byrd after 15 pitches.

There were three plate appearances that lasted 16 pitches last year. All involved the Astros. On July 27th, the Reds' Elizardo Ramirez struck out Astro Craig Biggio. On the game between Houston and the Cubs on June 15th, Fernando Nieve got Ronny Cedeno to fly out. And finally, Mike Lamb flied out against the Rangers pitcher Vicente Padilla on June 30th.

Here is a list of the top pitchers last year in 3 pitch strikeouts:

Johan Santana 56
John Lackey 49
John Smoltz 46
C.C. Sabathia 45
Aaron Harang 42

Here are the batters who have the most plate appearances without swinging the bat:

Jason Giambi 71
Brian Giles 71
Bobby Abreu 70
Nick Johnson 61
Kevin Youkilis 59

More on Drew and Lugo

2006-12-07T08:19:00.000-05:00

Here are links to defensive charts for Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew.

A note:

Fenway Park has been kind to Lugo over the years. He has a career line of .330/.384/.496 in 127 plate appearances in Boston. On a go forward basis, one could even argue that Lugo could benefit a tad by facing Tampa Bay's pitching rather than Boston's. He certainly knows the AL East well and has, in fact, hit .286/.358/.431 vs. the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles throughout his career.

Gerald Green for closer?

2006-12-07T08:10:00.000-05:00

With the signings of J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo, the Sox need only sign Dice-K, find a closer and a back-up catcher. We'll get to all of those in posts today, and as I've made my choice for closer (hint - he leads the NBA in 3-point shooting) we'll take Daisuke Matsuzaka first.

The Sox have a week until their signing window closes, and I think it's only a matter of time.

On the conspiracy theory front: Scott Boras recalled Major League Baseball’s recent reminder that side deals between ballclubs like the Red Sox and Seibu is not a good thing and that “the integrity of the posting would be flawed” if it were allowed.

Although Boston is not allowed to work out a side deal with the Seibu Lions, Boras told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald, "no rules exist that would prohibit Seibu from paying money to Matsuzaka to help him come to a decision where he would sign with the Red Sox and the Lions collect their $51.1 million." If that is the case, then this deal should get finalized rather easily.

Here is how it gets done:
Boston puts up $10 million per year for five years.
Seibu kicks back $3M per year to Matsuzaka.
Matsuzaka earns $13M per year from 2007-2011.
The total outlay for the Red Sox ends up being just over $100M or approximately $20M per season.
Seibu nets $36M.
Oh, and Boras earns a tidy $4M commission.
Everybody walks away happy.

Julio Lugo Analysis - Defense

2006-12-06T15:37:00.000-05:00

So the last post was obvious - Julio Lugo is an offensive upgrade over Alex Gonzalez. No shit - Bryon Bratt is an offensive upgrade over Alex Gonzalez.

The conventional wisdom defensively seems to be that Lugo is a significant step down defensively. Many of the articles I've read take the position that Lugo is just as quick and covers as much ground, but his "hands" aren't as good so he makes more errors.

Let's take a quick trip down inane stat lane and see how Lugo compares to Gonzalez over their careers in Fielding Percentage, Zone Rating and Range Factor. (click on the link for an explanation of the stat).

Player     FPCT    ZR    RF
Lugo       0.965   0.848 4.690
Gonzalez   0.970   0.843 4.510

From those numbers, it looks like Lugo actually covers slightly more ground, and the gap in their fielding percentages is negligible. Here are their stats using the Probabilistic Model of Range:


Player          ActOut  PredOut  DER    PredDER  Difference
Julio Lugo      253     241.59   0.120  0.115    0.00542
Alex Gonzalez   350     347.62   0.117  0.116    0.00080

Lugo is the better player under this metric, 6th in the majors vs. 17th for Gonzalez.
None of these metrics measure ability to turn the double play, however. That's a tough one to measure in numbers, since the second-baseman has a lot to do with that.

Julio Lugo Analysis - Offense

2006-12-06T15:13:00.000-05:00

Julio Lugo hits for a career .277/.340/.402. Last year, he hit .303/.373/.498 before being asked to man the entire diamond for the Dodgers in limited time, where he hit .219/.278/.267. In 2005, he hit .295/.362/.403.

In the last three years, he has shown a propensity for doubles - 41 in 2004, 36 in 2005, and had 17 in 73 games for the Devil Rays in 2006. The number is low because in 73 games, he hammered 12 home-runs as opposed to six in 158 games in 2005.

He will get himself on base at an above average rate, so I like that - even if he's not a stud in that department.

Looking at his overall production, his EqA is .270: good for 15th among all shortstops. Alex Gonzalez checks in with a well below average .245.

Lugo's Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is 31.3 - good enough for 5th among shortstops. Alex Gonzalez barely registers with 3.2.

"He is very contagious," Devil Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "In the dugout prior to the game, this guy is the kind of guy that runs up and down the dugout, slaps everybody, high-five, has a special handshake for everybody, plays with enthusiasm always. "He's very contagious. He's a leader. He's a leader in the sense that he sets a good example. [The Devil Rays] just missed his presence on a daily basis."

Next up: Lugo's defense.

Manny to be traded today?

2006-12-06T12:57:00.000-05:00

ESPN Deportes is reporting (I think) that Manny will be traded today to either the Dodgers or the Mariners. I read the article through an internet translator, so the translation not the best.

The article quotes "a source of whole credit to ESPNdeportes.com," as saying that the Dodgers offered Brad Penney and 2 prospects "whereas the Sailors have offered to Adrian Beltré and Richie Sexson, but Boston insists on including to one of two throwers, between lock J.J. Putz and the preinn Rafael Soriano."

The article says that both teams have agreed to pick up one of Manny's 2 option years.

J.D. Drew in quotes

2006-12-06T12:40:00.000-05:00

Here is what some members of the Dodgers organization have to say about J.D. Drew:
Former teammate Bill Mueller:

"I tell you what, he's a great player, a great individual, and a character guy. Any left-handed bat like his, the way he uses the whole field, he could have great success there. Unfortunately for us, he went somewhere else, which is his option. The market is great and he took advantage of it.

"Boston is such a great, great, great place to play. It's hard for me to say don't go to Boston because I think everybody should be able to experience playing in Boston. It's the Mecca of the game."

"You definitely have to have a certain mentality going in. The way J.D. is, he goes about business the way I do. Usually when people have that kind of personality, they do fine because they go out there and play their hearts out."

Dodgers Manager Grady Little on whether Drew can play in Boston:

"Of course he can," said the former Red Sox manager, who had Drew in Los Angeles last season. "He's an outstanding ballplayer. He can play anywhere."

"We were surprised [that he moved on]," said Little. "We thought J.D. was going to be our right fielder for a long time. We enjoyed having him on the team. We liked his game. He played hard for us."

Dave Jauss, Drew's outfield coach in Los Angeles who spent many years in the Red Sox organization:

"I expect him to be a really good player in Boston," said Jauss. "The game is the same between the white lines. J.D. is a fine athlete. He'll do so much good in the community, as he did in Los Angeles, that you can't help but like him."

"He's an excellent outfielder. He's got very good speed. He can score from first on a double and definitely score from second on a single. The fact he doesn't pull the ball is going to make him an effective hitter at Fenway. Not so much for the wall but for the fact on those cold days there, he's going to be able to go the other way and contribute as a hitter."

Sox GM Theo Epstein said that the Sox were convinced Drew would be a solid hitter at Fenway:

"He really has a great swing for Fenway Park," Epstein said. "When he pulls the ball and elevates the ball, it will certainly reach the bullpen. He's got plus raw power. The big dimensions in right field and even center field won't be a problem for him. If you look at his hit chart, those balls get out."

The Sox were also attracted, as Epstein would put it, by the thought of putting a center fielder in right field. Drew's agent, Scott Boras, said Drew has agreed to play either position.

Boras: "You look at what J.D. has done in these last three years. Other than getting hit on the wrist by a ball, this guy has put up numbers. He's an above-average defender. He's a guy that can steal 20-30 bases. He has a very fine throwing arm. He has 25-30 home run power.

"And in Fenway, with the ability for him to go to left field, because he has the ability to spray the ball around, I think it's really going to increase his average and put him in a position playerwise where he has a chance to be a very potent offensive threat."

Should Sox get Gagne?

2006-12-06T12:31:00.000-05:00

Patrick Fitzpatrick asks:

As many of the rumors involving Manny and the Sox have centered around the acquisition of a closer, it will be interesting to see how the Sox approach Eric Gagne.

Originally it was reported that Gagne would work out for teams in about a month, giving teams the opportunity to see for themselves that Gagne’s health is no longer of concern. However, the latest rumblings have Boras seeking a new home for the former lights-out Cy-Young award winner by the end of the week. If this is true, and if the Sox are indeed going to be a major player in the Gagne sweepstakes, what implications (if any) will this have on trade talks involving Ramirez? At first glance it would be unrealistic to think that any team would sign Gagne with expectations that Gagne would come into spring training as the team’s closer.

Thus if the Sox were to sign Gagne, it would be in their best interest to have a good backup plan. However, it is equally as unrealistic to think that Boras isn’t going to squeeze every last penny from the team that signs him. With players such as Vincent Padilla locking down $34 million dollar contracts, one can only speculate how much Gagne will command in the surging market that is the 2006 off-season.

This raises two important questions: (1) how strongly should the Sox pursue Gagne, and (2) if they are successful, what affect would this have on the team’s demands for Manny?

Ideally, the Sox should try to sign Gagne to an incentive-based contract that would allow Gagne to collect the money that he seeks if he is healthy, and protect the Sox if he is not. But, and this is a major but, what are the chances that Boras would accept such a deal? While Gagne’s 2006 salary was $10 million, that figure was based on Gagne’s performance before any health concerns. Is Gagne’s upside worth the risk that he could be collecting a King’s ransom from the DL?

J.D. Drew - Defense

2006-12-06T12:26:00.000-05:00

Obviously I haven't seen him play a lot, so I can't comment from personal observation.
Here's how Drew compares to other MLB rightfielders in the various statistical metrics:

Fielding Percentage (putouts + assists / chances): .983 (6^th)
Range Factor (putouts + assists / innings played at the position): 2.91 (3^rd)
Zone Rating (balls fielded/total balls hit into his “zone”): .891 (5^th)
Probabilistic Model of Range (difference between actual outs and predicted outs): 10^th

^{Oh, and he's a solid baserunner.}

J.D. Drew - Analysis

2006-12-06T12:18:00.000-05:00

This will be the first in a series of posts looking into what we can expect from the two newest Red Sox: J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo.

To kick things off, I like the Drew signing a lot. I know a lot of you disagree with me on this, so fire away. I'm going to start the analysis with a look at him from a purely statistical viewpoint, and then move on to what people around baseball who have seen him play a lot have to say.

Obviously the first selling point here is his ability to get on base.

In that most crucial of offensive skills (not getting out), Drew was 4^th among all outfielders last year with a .393 OBP. That's his career number, too, ut he has gone over 400 recently.

Drew is one of the best players in history at avoiding the double play. In 960 games, Drew has grounded into only 41 DP's.

He has a good amount of pop in the bat as well:

Drew's .891 OPS was 13^th, and he was 11^th in secondary average (.293), a stat that attempts to measure the value of a player's offensive production, exclusive of singles. It's basically SLG minus AVG.

Looking deeper into the sabertrics with a couple stats that try to measure total offensive production, Drew is 5^th in Equivalent Average (.300) and 9^th in Runs Created per 27 outs (7.33).

Drew deal confirmed

2006-12-05T21:44:00.001-05:00

J.D. Drew's agent Scott Boras has confirmed a 5 year, $70 million deal:
"He's going to be a contributor. They had two big sluggers, righty-lefty, Ortiz and Ramirez," Boras told the Associated Press. "J.D. has a great on-base percentage. He gives you a quality at-bat. He's an RBI guy. And he's really going to add a defensive component to that team that is, I think, really going to enhance their play, what they do both with arm strength and his ability to cover ground in the outfield. And his baserunning -- he can run a little bit. He is going to steal 20 or 30 bases. He's going to bring a dimension there.

Pettitte back to the Bronx?

2006-12-05T16:58:00.000-05:00

The latest rumor out of the meetings has Andy Pettitte reconsidering retirement for a return to the Bronx. SI's Tom Verducci is reporting that the free-agent lefty is "the club's No. 1 option."

The free-agent left-hander, who is strongly considering retirement, is said to be intrigued with the idea of returning to pinstripes and "could possibly have a deal by the end of the week" with New York, according to a baseball source familiar with the negotiations.

The Yankees are willing to wait as long as necessary for Pettitte, whose original timetable was to defer a decision on 2007 until later this month.

How do his numbers stack up against other free agent starters? Here are Pettitte's numbers over the last 2 years compared with Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt:

Pitcher	W-L	ERA	IP	K/9	K/BB
Pettitte	31-22	3.28	436.2	7.19	3.14
Zito	30-23	3.78	449.1	6.45	1.71
Schmidt	23-16	3.95	385.1	8.02	2.09

Mariners offer Putz

2006-12-05T16:31:00.000-05:00

The Seattle Mariners are rumored to be in discussions with the Sox for Manny as well. There are a couple scenarios here:
In the first, the Sox trade straight-up with the M's for reliever J.J. Putz and (depending on who's doing the rumormongering) either Richie Sexson or centerfield prospect Adam Jones.
The other rumor is a three-team deal involving the Giants with Putz and Jones to Boston, Sexson to San Francisco and Manny and Noah Lowry to Seattle.
Either way, you can cross one hole off Theo's to-do list: a closer. Putz is a stud. He is 29 years old and threw 78.1 innings last year, saving 36 games with a 0.92 WHIP and 2.30 ERA. Some deeper numbers:
11.95 K/9, 0.46 HR/9, 8.09K/BB.
The Nationals have apparently made late efforts to jump in on this trade, proposing a three-way with the Giants that would have Chad Cordero and Felipe Lopez coming to Boston and Lowry, Jonathan Sanchez and Brian Wilson going to Washington.
Cordero is a 24-year-old closer who had 29 saves last season with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.
Looking at the peripherals, he had 8.47 K/9, 1.60 HR/9 and 3.13 K/BB with 3.31RA.
Lopez is a 22-year-old shortstop who hit .281 / .362 / .365. Don't be fooled by the .365 SLG, he has shown some pop in the past and projects to hit quite a few homers for a shortstop. He's also a speed demon.

Carpenter extended - Why?

2006-12-05T14:31:00.000-05:00

The Cardinals just signed Chris Carpenter to a contract extension, reaching agreement on a deal that will pay him $65 mil through 2011, with a club option for 2012 worth $12 mil. Initially sounds like a good idea - $13 mil per season for arguably the top starting pitcher in the NL.

Upon further review, what were they thinking? They already had him under contract for this season at $7 mil and next season for $8 mil. So basically this deal amounts to adding three years to the deal for an additional $50 million, or just shy of $17 mil per year. Carpenter is nasty, but they have him under control already for his age 32 and 33 seasons. Why give him an extension that will pay him 17 mil for his 34-36 seasons before you see if he stays healthy at least through this season?

Giants - repeat performance?

2006-12-05T14:25:00.000-05:00

Baseball Prospectus reports that the Giants signed Rich Aurilia to a two year deal, on the heels of signing Ray Durham. There was also a notion going around late last night that the Giants were about to sign Bengie Molina to a three-year deal, creating the beautiful idea that Mike Matheny could credibly be used as a pinch-runner in 2007.

As Joe Sheehan points out: the Giants are painting themselves into a corner.

Every time they spend money on a player in his thirties, a player with more past than future, they make it that much more critical that they sign Barry Bonds for 2007 to complete the roster and give them that chance at winning the other moves reflect a desire for.

If they don't sign Bonds, it's 2005 all over again, an aging team with an average pitching staff that won't score anywhere near enough runs to compete.

Sox reject Dodgers offer

2006-12-05T14:08:00.000-05:00

Will Carroll is reporting that the Dodgers' offer of Jonathan Broxton and Andy LaRoch e was rejected by the Sox today. The Sox had been seeking a package of 3 of the Dodgers' top prospects. Looking at the numbers, any package would have to include Broxton. He's 22 and shows a ton of promise.
LaRoche is a young third base prospect that the team has been interested in for a while.
The Sox are also said to be seeking outfielder Matt Kemp, first baseman James Loney, and infielder Willy Aybar.
Kemp is 21 and a nice prospect who projects to be a big masher. He played 52 games in the majors last year and hit 7 homers with a .448 SLG.
Loney also projects to have some pop in the bat. He hit .284 / .342 / .559 in 48 games last season in his first big league time.
Aybar is a plus defender in the infield who doesn't have a great deal of pop in the bat yet but is already getting on base at a stellar rate: .313 / .373 / .391.

Get the Foulke out of town? Not so fast...

2006-12-05T10:23:00.000-05:00

The back and forth on whether Keith Foulke is coming back to the team continues to take some interesting turns. Before we get into the ins and outs of that, lets take a quick peek at why we would even want him. Here are Foulke's numbers from after the All-Star break:
2.04 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 4.33 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP - pretty tasty.
If you recall, the team had a $7.5 mil option on Foulke for 2007 which they paid a $1.5 mil buyout when they (understandably) declined to exercise. That left Foulke with a $3.75 mil player option which he turned down.
Earlier this week, the team offered arbitration to the former closer. We went over the compensation rules earlier, but here is some more info on how arbitration works:
Both the player and the team submit an amount, and the arbitrator has to pick one or the other bid - nothing in the middle. Under the previous collective bargaining agreement, a team could not submit a bid that amounted a pay cut of any more than 20%. That clause has been removed from the new collective bargaining agreement, meaning that if Foulke accepts arbitration, they could potentially offer a price as low as the minimum.
Michael Silverman at the Herald reports that the Sox do not exptect Foulke to accept arbitration, but that his agent, Danny Horwits, said he was more enthusiastic about coming back after having positive conversations with the front office, team doctors, and his teammates.
Foulke is a type-B free agent, and the Sox would get a draft pick if he were to sign elsewhere.

Everyone waiting on Manny

2006-12-05T10:05:00.000-05:00

The entire baseball universe is revolving around Manny Ramirez. According to Nick Cafardo, the lovable slugger has dominated conversation at baseball's winter meetings, with teams waiting to see if a Manny blockbuster comes down before making other deals.
With that in mind, we'll do a special Manny day here at Notes, breaking down each potential trading partner and the pieces that would likely change hands in separate posts. Stay tuned as the day goes on.
Sox GM Theo Epstein, with the team in dire need of a closer, middle relief help and a shortstop, said yesterday that the Sox would actively seek to trade Manny only until Wednesday at midight, at which time they would turn their attention to addressing the teams other needs.
"I think at some point, if we realistically get past Wednesday, we're not going to take up more of the team's time and energy," he said. "We'll certainly be listeners. At some point, you can't let it get in the way of other things you're trying to do. There's also the free agent market and pitching to deal with."
Theo did say however that convincing teams to take on Manny's salary has not been the sticking point this season.
"In this market, teams aren't backing off from taking salaries," he said. "Trading for large salaries hasn't seemed to be an issue."
Obviously the team will be willing to trade Manny going forward. Anyone with any experience in negotiating understands that deals tend to get done at the deadline. By creating an artificial deadline for trading Manny, Theo may be able to push some of these competing teams to sweeten the pot.

Lester back this year?

2006-12-05T09:47:00.000-05:00

The Globe, Herald, and ESPN are all reporting that Jon Lester's cancer is in remission and he expects to be with the team in spring training this season.
According to Gordon Edes and Nick Cafardo:

A source with direct knowledge of Jon Lester's medical condition said yesterday that Lester's latest CT scan was clean and his cancer seems to be in remission.

Lester was diagnosed in late August with a rare form of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, a blood cancer, and began treatment in September. The condition was identified as anaplastic large cell lymphoma, a rare cancer accounting for 1-2 percent of all lymphomas. The cause is unknown.

Dr. Robert Soiffer, chief of the division of blood cancers at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston, indicated at the time of Lester's diagnosis that the cancer was responsive to chemotherapy, and predicted that if it did help, Lester would be able to return to pitching after his treatment was finished. Lester began treatment in Boston but returned home to continue at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle. He has one more course of chemotherapy to undergo, the source said.

Broxton from LA?

2006-12-04T09:48:00.000-05:00

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Sox and Dodgers met at midnight last night to discuss a possible Manny trade. Rosenthal says that the Red Sox almost certainly would want right-hander Jonathan Broxton, a future closer, in a Ramirez package. Broxton is a very exciting possibility, even though he may not be on many Sox fans' radar. The guy is 22-years-old, and had a nasty second season in the majors last year with a 2.59 ERA in 73 relief innings. In addition to his low ERA, his peripheral stats also portend future success: 11.44 K/9, almost 3 strikeouts per walk, and he held opponents to a .216 avg/.300obp/ .348 slg.

Rosenthal also reports a package of Brad Penny (ERA over 6 after the all-star break last year), third baseman Andy LaRoche and first baseman James Loney might entice the Red Sox. Penny, 28, is signed for $7.5 million next season and $8.5 million in 2008, with an $8.75 million club option for '09.

The Dodgers, however, might not want to part with top prospects if they're required to take on Ramirez's $20 million club options in both 2009 and '10, which would be the likely price for persuading him to waive his no-trade clause.

Winter Meetings Preview

2006-12-04T09:16:00.000-05:00

With baseball's winter meetings beginning today, very few GMs have more on their plate than Theo Epstein. Here are some tidbits from the latest post by Peter Gammons:

Look, the Red Sox don't even know if Manny Ramirez will be or can be traded at the winter meetings, so no one does.
They don't know if they can get the Dodgers and Angels in a marketing war and end up with something close to what they want. They don't know if the Mariners would trade rookie center fielder Adam Jones and pitching.

It would shock no one if, after weeks of bartering, the Red Sox got a deal with a team like the Dodgers and Manny exercised his 10/5 rights or held up the deal, pressuring Genske to get 2009 and 2010 guaranteed at the $20 million per year, per the contract option.

The club has told Genske in no uncertain terms that if they accede to his trade request and the deal gets held up, Ramirez will have to sit in Boston for the remainder of the deal.

The sense around the Red Sox is that while they may reach for the antacid they aren't going to roll over if Ramirez comes back; if Julio Lugo were to sign (for less than the Cubs' or Mets' offers so he could play short and be with his old friend David Ortiz), then the Lugo/Coco Crisp/Ortiz/Ramirez/J.D. Drew front five would be extremely powerful.

It is assumed that Epstein will complete the Drew deal (my analogy is that J.D. Drew equals Fred Lynn), try to sign Lugo and find a closer. Would Seattle deal J.J. Putz for Manny? Dubious. Scott Boras would like to get Eric Gagne to Boston; problem is, are the medicals real or off the set of General Hospital? Joe Borowski has been calling now that his medicals were declined in Philly.

Jonathan Papelbon's recent MRI was precisely the same as the one he took when he first signed out of Mississippi State, so they are very encouraged by his progress and convinced he will be a 200-innings horse.

The Giants offered Carlos Lee $113M, and they are trying to get into the Ramirez thing … anything to not take Barry Bonds back. Boston has no interest in Bonds.

The Padres have dabbled in the Ramirez talks but don't think they have enough without trading Peavy, which is not going to happen. Boston does not think Scott Linebrink is a closer, and the one available starter in that kind of deal would be Clay Hensley. "That," says one GM, "isn't going to get it done."

Protection for Papi?

2006-12-01T10:51:00.000-05:00

Much has been made of the lost protection of David Ortiz should the Sox trade Manny.

Since 2003, Ortiz has played in 55 games in which Manny did not have an AB. The Sox went 33-22 (.600) in those games.

In 186 AB, Papi hit .301 and slugged .624 with 17 HR. Over a 162-game season, that projects to 50 HR with 133 RBI with 133 walks. ... In 2006, he slugged .636 with 54 HR, 137 RBI and 119 BB.

Let's also recall that Ortiz hit behind Manny for all of 2003, a good chunk of 2004 (including the playoffs), the first few months of 2005, and in September of 2006. Ortiz put up a .983 OPS hitting behind Manny in 2003, a .958 OPS during the part of 2004 that he hit behind Manny, a .960 OPS when he was behind Manny in 2005 and an OPS over 1.200 in September of '06.

More on No. 40 (Okajima)

2006-12-01T10:46:00.000-05:00

"Hello, hello. My name is Hideki Okajima and I like Boston," were the first words he uttered as a Red Sox reliever.

Okajima will be paid $1.25 million each of the next two seasons and has a $1.75 million club option for 2009.

Here are Okajima's righty/lefty splits:


vs. RH (130 AB) .254 BA, 6 BB, 36 K, 5 HR
vs. LH ( 70 AB) .186 BA, 8 BB, 27 K, 0 HR

Okajima's big-game experience was something Sox Director of International Scouting Craig Shipley felt would come in handy in Boston.

"Two thousand five for me was the first time I saw him," he said. "[International scout] John Deeble has seen him for a number of years before that. He has a very good overhand curveball and has good command. He can use his fastball on both sides of the plate. He throws two types of splits, one he throws for a strike and another when he's trying to get a strikeout or a swing and a miss.

"He has a lot of experience in big games in Japan. He's pitched in a number of roles in Japan, as well, as a starter and a closer. He's more than a situational left-hander."

Lugo to the Cubs?

2006-12-01T10:43:00.000-05:00

Multiple sources report that the Cubs have offered Julio Lugo a multi-year deal. Some outlets report that they want him to play center field, others shortstop.

Here's Ken Rosenthal's view on the situation:

How Lugo would fit into the Cubs' plans remains unclear. He could start out in center field, then move back to shortstop if the Cubs promoted top prospect Felix Pie and/or parted with shortstop Cesar Izturis, whose contract expires after next season.

Lugo, 31, was a favorite of new Cubs manager Lou Piniella's with the Devil Rays. His athleticism intrigues the Cubs, who could field an electrifying lineup if they added Lugo to a mix that will include Soriano, first baseman Derrek Lee and third baseman Aramis Ramirez — and eventually Pie.

The likelihood of Pie's emergence — possibly in 2007, probably no later than '08 — has caused the Cubs to back off free-agent center fielder Gary Matthews Jr., who would block Pie, 21, if he signed a long-term deal. Lugo, on the other hand, would be versatile enough to return to the infield — that is, if he doesn't sign with the Red Sox to play shortstop or the Mets to second base.

Trot coming back?

2006-12-01T10:31:00.000-05:00

The Boston Globe is reporting that the Sox are likely to offer salary arbitration to free agent outfielder Trot Nixon by today's deadline.

“Although Nixon has fielded feelers from other teams, he has maintained that his first choice was to prolong his career in Boston. If the Sox offer arbitration today -- and one club source cautioned it wasn't definite -- and Nixon accepts by the Dec. 7 deadline, that would make him the equivalent of a signed player for 2007, and probably place him squarely in the team's plans.

Nixon was paid $6.5 million last season and could expect to win a raise in arbitration, which would place him at a salary level unusually high for a spare outfielder. That points to the strong possibility the Sox have other plans for Nixon.”

Another possibility is that the Sox want to make sure they receive compensation should Trot sign with another team. Nixon is a type-B free agent, which means that if the Sox offer him arbitration and he signs with another club, they would get a "sandwich" pick between the first and second rounds of the draft.

Second-baseman Mark Loretta could also be offered arbitration this week. As Loretta is a type-A free agent, the Sox would be entitled to even more compensation, depending on who signs him. If that team's 1st round pick is in the bottom 15, the Sox get that pick and a sandwich pick. If that team's 1st round pick is in the top 15, the pick is protected and the Sox get the sandwich pick and the team's 2nd round pick.

For more on MLB's free agent rules, check out this link.

Here is a link to a site where you can track the draft picks teams owe as a result of free agent signings this off season.

Hideki Okajima update

2006-11-30T23:16:00.000-05:00

Here is a third-hand scouting report on new sox lefty reliever Hideki Okajima, courtesy of a Giants scout:

1. Fastball — low 90’s
Okajima’s fastball is an average MLB-caliber pitch. It is a heavy pitch that is difficult to hit because it has late movement away from lefthanded hitters. 20-80 scale: 60-65

2. Curveball — 70’s-80’s
Okajima’s curveball is his bread-and-butter pitch. It breaks hard and late, away from lefthanded hitters and down and in to righties. He’ll throw it on any count and he will strike-out batters by changing location with it, which he does very well. 20-80 scale: 70

3. Forkball
Okajima does not use his forkball often, but he will use it when he’s struggling with his control. He locates the pitch very well, but there are times when he does not get the necessary spin on the ball for it to break as much as he’d like it to. The pitch is very tough on righthanded batters. 20-80 scale: 55

Okajima will primarily rely on those three pitches, with the fastball and curveball being his most consistent and favorite pitches to throw. He also supposedly has a splitter, but it doesn’t have as much bite as his other pitches and is not an MLB-caliber pitch.

By the way, the Yankees supposedly also made an offer to Okajima that actually included more money than the Sox offer, but were turned down because Okajima preferred Boston, thinking that the Sox wanted him more because they placed the first offer.

Sox sign Okajima

2006-11-30T08:04:00.000-05:00

The Boston Herald is reporting that the Sox have signed 31-year-old lefty reliever Hideki Okajima to an unspecified deal. that is rumored to be for 2 years.
Okajima was traded to Nippon Ham in late March after spending 12 seasons with the Yomiuri Giants. He went 2-2 with four saves and a 2.14 ERA this year with Nippon Ham, bringing his career record to 34-32 with 41 saves and a 3.36 ERA.
He has 63 Ks with only 14 walks in 54 2/3 innings pitched last season.
He supposedly has a nasty curve but doesn't throw that hard.

Who's the fastest?

2006-11-29T09:55:00.000-05:00

I came across this list yesterday that ranks MLB starters by average fastball speed (min. 162 IP) :

King Felix:   95.2
Verlander:    95.1
Beckett:      94.7
Penny:        93.9
Sabathia:     93.7
Cain:         93.4
Bonderman:    93.3
Escober:      93.1
Wang:         93.1
E. Santana:   93.1
J. Santana:   93.1
Snell:        92.8
Oswalt:       92.7
Smoltz:       92.7
Bedard:       92.6

J.D. vs. J.D.

2006-11-29T09:29:00.000-05:00

Much has been made about the fact that the Sox only offered Johnny Damon $10 million a year and are now close to signing J.D. Drew for $14 million. Forget the money and compare their production:

Damon (32 years old) 2006: 148 games/ 285avg / 359obp / 482slg / 24hrs
Drew (30 years old) 2006: 146 games / 283avg / 393obp / 512slg / 20hrs

Here's their career averages in full seasons:

Damon: 289avg / 353obp / 436slg / 24hr
Drew:  286avg / 393obp / 512slg / 27hr

From a production standpoint, Drew is the superior player. The averages are the same, but while Johnny is supposed to be the great leadoff hitter/on base guy, Drew is 18th in all MLB players in on base %, while Damon checks in at 68th. Drew also has more pop in the bat.

Anyone concerned that JD Drew misses too much time? Johnny Damon has averaged 148 games played over the last 4 years. Drew played 145 in 2004 and 146 last year. He only played 72 games in 2005, but that was because he was hit by a pitch and broke a bone - not exactly something that can be blamed on his being injury prone. With Damon 2 years older, there's no reason to expect him to play any more time than Drew over the next 3-4 years.

So again, forgetting the money, you have to take Drew over Damon.

On to the money. I think it's a mistake to compare the Sox $10 mil offer to Damon with a $14 mil offer to Drew. NY paid Damon $13 mil and it would have taken close to that to keep him. We also have to factor in the changed market conditions this off-season with the increased revenue and new collective bargaining agreement meaning labor peace for the near future. In a market where Gary Matthews Jr. gets $50 mil, how much is Damon worth then?

Basically the Sox are getting a better, younger player for essentially $1 million more in a market that has inflated salaries. I say good deal.

Bill James on Mike Lowell

2006-11-29T08:18:00.000-05:00

Baseball Daily Digest has an interview with Bill James about his 2006 Fielding Bible. Here is what James has to say about Mike Lowell:
"Mike Lowell is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. He's extremely interesting to watch. He keeps his glove hand, his left hand, very relaxed, and he doesn't appear to anticipate the hop at all. What I am saying is. .. the announcers, the veteran baseball people will tell you that the key to making the plays is to get your body in the proper position to make the play. But in fact, if you actually watch the fielders, very often they can't handle a tough hop or a line drive at an awkward angle precisely because they're trying to play the ball with their whole body. They're relying on positioning their body to make the play, and when something happens that makes that impossible, they're just SOL. Lowell, if you watch him, seems to be saying "it is easier to react with my left arm than it is to re-position my whole body in anticipation of the play." He stays balanced, stays loose, reacts late and has extraordinary confidence in his ability to snag the ball with his glove at the last moment. I've never really seen anything like it before, but this looseness and unusual confidence, for example, gives him a remarkable ability to charge a ground ball. He can change a slow grounder top speed because he knows that, bad hop or good hop, in-between stride or on stride, he can slap at the ball with his glove and pick it out of the air."

New notes feature:

2006-08-27T10:32:00.000-04:00

Starting today, players mentioned in Notes entries will have hyperlinks to their Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projection page. I chose the BP page over ESPN and other player pages because it has links to all the other pages right under the player’s picture. It also has a handy bar graph that lets you instantly compare a player to the league average on several key metrics.

Timlin blows it again

2006-08-27T10:25:00.000-04:00

Mike Timlin’s struggles are not exactly news. Over the last 22 games, the 40-year-old has allowed 18 earned runs in his last 21 1/3 innings and five home runs in his last 14 games.

Asked to protect a 3-2 Red Sox lead in the bottom of the eighth inning last night in relief of David Wells, Timlin surrendered a leadoff home run to Adrian Beltre and then the eventual winning sacrifice fly to Ben Broussard after back-to-back singles to Raul Ibanez and Richie Sexson. Much like his clueless comments during the Yankee’s series, Timlin seems to be in denial:

``I threw the ball exceptionally well. I can look at myself in the mirror and know I did exactly what I wanted and I got beat."

Another person who seems to be in denial is Terry Francona, at least about Timlin. Remy and Orsillo had no problem commenting on the success Beltre and Ibanez had had off Timlin up to that point. Going to Keith Foulke there would have been the smarter move.

Coco's weak arm strikes again

2006-08-27T10:21:00.000-04:00

As Steven Krasner notes Coco Crisp's right shoulder must be bothering him again.

The Red Sox center fielder acknowledged in Kansas City about two weeks ago that the back of his right (throwing) shoulder was sore, to the point to where he was instructed to throw to the infield cutoff man on throws home.

Last night, with Adrian Beltre at second and one out in the fourth, Raul Ibanez ripped a line single to center. Beltre didn't get a great jump, but he was waved around by third-base coach Carlos Garcia.

Crisp charged the ball and fielded it cleanly, but he didn't even try to throw home. He threw to shortstop Alex Cora, who had gone out onto the outfield grass for a cutoff. Cora's belated throw home was cut off by first baseman Eric Hinske as Beltre scored the run that tied the game at 1-1.

The Mariners noticed Crisp's weak throwing effort. So when Richie Sexson followed with a high fly ball to center, shy of the warning track, Raul Ibanez, no speedster, tagged at first and made it to second into scoring position, easily beating Crisp's high-arching throw.

Roster notes...

2006-08-27T10:16:00.000-04:00

Josh Beckett played catch yesterday and will again today as he hopes to stay on course to make his scheduled start Tuesday in Oakland.The right hander cut his right middle finger with his own fingernail in the sixth inning Thursday and left his start against the Angels an inning later. There was concern the past two days as to whether Beckett would need to be skipped, but Red Sox manager Terry Francona indicated before and after last night's 4-3 loss to the Mariners that Beckett is good to go.

Kevin Youkilis felt better yesterday after being sent back to the hotel Friday night with a stomach flu. Youkilis was still out of the lineup, but was available for pinch-hitting duty. Eric Hinske started at first base.

Mark Loretta, who had missed the previous two games with a strained left quadriceps, played first base in Youkilis's absence Friday and got one of the Sox' five hits. Loretta was back at second last night and knocked in a run in the fifth with a single.

Jeff Horrigan reports that Francona said he expects some pitching help to be summoned from Pawtucket on Friday, when rosters can be expanded to up to 40 players.

Another catcher, either Corky Miller or Ken Huckaby, is likely to join the team right away. Craig Hansen, Javier Lopez, Craig Breslow and Jermaine Van Buren are the leading candidates. First baseman Carlos Pena, utility man Willie Harris and outfielder David Murphy are among other candidates to be called up when the PawSox season ends Sept. 4.

Another good outing for Wells

2006-08-27T09:46:00.000-04:00

Making his sixth start since returning from the disabled list on July 31, David Wells allowed eight hits and two runs in seven full innings. He took a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the seventh, when Mariners shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt poked a solo home run that tied the game.

In a 2-1 loss to the Yankees last Monday, Wells went 7 1/3 innings and allowed six hits and two earned runs, but the Sox' offense couldn't solve Cory Lidle.

Since his return, Wells has a 4.19 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 1.6BB/9 1.40HR/9 and 3.29K/BB.

2006 Red Sox = 2005 Yankees?

2006-08-22T10:52:00.000-04:00

Obviously the main story of this horrifying weekend is the performance by the Red Sox pitching staff. Despite solid outings from David Wells and Curt Schilling, the rotation totally blew it, as they have been doing for quite some time now.
The Red Sox used seven pitchers over this weekend who they expected would play important roles this year: Schilling, Wells, Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, Keith Foulke, Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez. Those pitchers threw 28 2/3 innings, allowed 20 runs, all earned (6.28 ERA), struck out 23 men, walked 16 and allowed just two home runs. Not exactly what you're looking for, but not dreadful considering how bad Beckett's perfomance was -9 walks in 5 2/3 innings?!?

The Sox used seven other guys, including both starters last Friday. Those pitchers threw 17 1/3 innings, allowed 29 runs, 28 earned (14.54 ERA), walked 15, struck out 17 and allowed five homers.

As Joe Sheehan points out, the Sox are last year's Yankees, but without Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small. Before they were acquired by their respective teams, there was virtually no difference between Jason Johnson and Chicon or Kyle Snyder and Small.
Here are their numbers up to the time they were signed by NY and Boston:

Player      ERA    K/9     BB/9    HR/9    K/BB
Johnson    5.96    3.7     2.6     1.17    1.45
Snyder     5.91    4.4     2.3     1.09    1.88
Chacon     5.20    6.3     4.8     1.34    1.31
Small      6.35    5.2     5.2     2.38    1.00

As you can see, the Yankees got over 150 innings of quality starting pitching while the Sox got a steaming pile of shit.

Snyder on short rest

2006-08-22T10:34:00.000-04:00

Despite throwing in the first game of Friday's doubleheader and in Saturday's game, Kyle Snyder will make tonight's start against the Angels in Anaheim, Calif. His recent workload -- 3 2/3 innings in the series -- plus the fact that he hasn't started in a month (July 26 in Oakland) might prove problematic for Snyder, especially considering he did not get a chance to fly ahead of the team to the West Coast. The Red Sox' other option as a starter was Kason Gabbard, but Terry Francona wanted to give the chance to Snyder, who has gone 2-2 with a 5.66 ERA as a starter with Boston.
“That doesn’t bother me,” said Snyder, who allowed three runs in two innings Friday and no runs and no hits in 1 2/3 innings Saturday. “I’ve spent a lot of time on commercial flights with two connections at a time and I’ve thrown some of my best games then. I’ll get plenty of rest. It’s a night game and I’ll be ready to go.”

Where have you gone...Matt Clement?

2006-08-22T10:15:00.000-04:00

For all those Red Sox fans who ripped Matt Clement - wouldn't it be nice to have him available to make a start or two here?
Here is a look at Clement's numbers since July 1, 2005, as compared to some of the guys the Sox have trotted out there to take his place:

Name           ERA     K/9     BB/9    HR/9
Matt Clement   5.09    6.64    3.72    0.91
Jason Johnson  7.36    5.52    3.99    0.92
Kyle Snyder    5.34    8.16    2.53    1.97
David Pauley   7.88    5.62    3.38    0.56
Jon Lester     4.72    6.84    4.60    0.83

The only person here with better numbers is Jon Lester, but lets not forget that those numbers have dropped precipitously in the last month or so. Here's Lester since the All-Star break:

ERA     K/9      BB/9     HR/9
6.46    5.80     3.20     0.92

The Wizard of Oz strikes again

2006-08-22T09:57:00.000-04:00

"Then they have a Mexican win the World Series in two years. And they're saying he doesn't have experience, he never managed in baseball before. Well, too fucking bad."
--Ozzie Guillen

"What's the difference? No one knows the difference anyway."
--Guillen, after being reminded that he's Venezuelan.

The man is a walking quote machine.

The only time to bunt?

2006-08-21T10:58:00.000-04:00

Was anyone else surprised when the Red Sox had Kevin Youkilis bunt in the 9th inning last night? Loyal readers are well aware of my dislike of the sacrifice bunt, but this was a situation where even my inane-stat-driven prejudices seem to argue in favor of the bunt. Let's recap:
The game is tied going into the bottom of the ninth. After David Ortiz doubles off Mariano Rivera, the Yanks elect to walk Manny Ramirez. Probably a good idea considering that Manny hit .727 with an .833 on base percentage this series (only 3 outs!). With the winning run already in scoring position, Francona elects to try to sacrifice the runners along.
There are several good reasons to do this - for one it removes the double play possibility. It also statistically increases the odds of scoring a run. Check those expected runs tables: while sacrificing never increases the amount of total runs you will score, moving a runner from second to third with no outs is the only time a sacrifice increases the chance of scoring at least one run.
But that assumes you have someone coming up who will be able to drive the run in from third. Following Youkilis, the Sox had Mike Lowell, Gabe Kapler, and Doug Mirabelli. Given that Youkilis is the only player besides Manny and Ortiz that is hitting the ball well right now, wouldn't it have been better to let Youkilis, Lowell, and Eric Hinske (batting for Kapler) try to drive the run in with a single?

Arroyo finally gets 10th win

2006-08-21T10:51:00.000-04:00

Bronson Arroyo broke his 10-game drought with a 7-2 win over the Cardinals last Tuesday night to improve to 10-8 with a 3.45 ERA. Arroyo went 14-10 with the Red Sox last season, getting his 10th win Aug. 10, in his 23d start, some six days before he got his 10th win with the Reds this year, in his 26th start.

In a strange season, he became the first pitcher in major league history to win nine of his first 15 starts and then go winless in his next 10.

Arroyo's competition in the National League so far has been far inferior compared with his last season in the AL. The opposing starting pitchers he's faced currently have a 114-138 (.452) combined record; last year, his opponents were a combined 263-249 (.514).

As noted earlier, even N.L. lineups are starting to figure him out.

Bullpen mismanaged again

2006-08-21T10:29:00.000-04:00

Red Sox manager Terry Francona continues to mismanage the bullpen, refusing to use his best relievers in the most important innings. Jonathan Papelbon has been one of the best relievers in baseball this season, yet Francona refuses to bring him in earlier than the 9th inning until it is too late. Last night was a prime example: with the Sox up 5-3 in the 8th and the top of the order coming up for the Yankees, Francona chose to go with struggling Mike Timlin and Javier Lopez, a loogy with so little stuff the Sox were willing to enter a series against the Yanks without a lefty in the bullpen rather than throw this stiff out there.
Predictably, those guys blew it, leaving Papelbon to come in with the bases loaded, no outs, and Jason Giambi coming up.
Let me preempt all of the responses here: Papelbon was certainly rested enough to go both innings, especially since he hadn't pitched since last Wednesday when he needed just 6 pitches to pick up his 32nd save against Detroit.
Papelbon has also demonstrated his ability to pitch more than one inning repeatedly. For pitches 31 onward, opponents are hitting .083 / .267 / .083 with no runs scored.
Francona needs to get out of the mindset that Papelbon is the closer and only comes in to start the 9th inning. Papelbon is the best pitcher in the bullpen and needs to be used in the most crucial spots. That's not always the 9th inning with no one on and a lead.

Timlin needs to look in the mirror

2006-08-21T09:34:00.000-04:00

Going into the Yankees series, Mike Timlin called out the Red Sox offense for not rising to the challenge like the pitchers:

“I’m not calling anybody out, but we haven’t scored a whole lot,” Timlin said. “We’re pitching well, we’re holding teams down, and they’re doing the same to us. It’s not that they’re outpitching us or we’re outpitching them, it’s just right now we’re not hitting as well as we’re pitching.”
But maybe Timlin ought to look in the mirror when assigning blame.
Here are Timlin's numbers since July 1:
19 2/3 innings pitched, 7.32 ERA, 0.83 K/BB , and 1.54WHIP.

No one with those numbers ought to be criticizing anyone. Unlike Timlin, the offense didn't exactly go south against the Yankees either:


Hitters    AB    H    BB    Avg    Obp
Ramirez    11    8    7    .727    .833     
Loretta    15    7    3    .467    .556     
Lowell     13    6    2    .462    .533     
Cora       11    4    1    .364    .417     
Hinske      9    3    1    .333    .400     
Ortiz      16    5    2    .313    .389     
Youkilis   17    4    3    .235    .350     
Lopez       8    2    0    .250    .250     
Crisp       9    1    1    .111    .200     
Mirabelli  10    2    0    .200    .200     
Pena       14    1    0    .071    .071     
Kapler      4    0    0    .000    .000     
Gonzalez    3    0    0    .000    .000 
Totals    140   43   20    .307    .394

A day for the record books?

2006-08-20T12:56:00.000-04:00

Another pasting at the hands of the Yanks, one that saw the Sox set several uncomfortable firsts:
It was the first time the Red Sox had allowed 12 or more runs in three straight games.

Josh Beckett set a personal mark, allowing 9 free passes to Yankee hitters. The last Red Sox pitcher to walk as many as nine batters in a game was Roger Moret, had nine against the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 22, 1975. Moret could at least take something away from that game, however - he pitched a complete game to get the nine, and he got the win.
Beckett's line: 5 2/3 innings, nine walks, nine earned runs and one very hard look in the mirror.

"It's unacceptable," Beckett said. "It's brutal. I couldn't get ahead or put anybody away. When you don't execute your pitches and you're walking guys on top of that, it's going to be a long day."

Struggles at the plate led to some curious lineup moves:
Shortstop Alex Gonzalez, just 1 for 17 on the homestand and 3 for 35 (.086) in his last 10 games, sat for the second straight game, replaced by Alex Cora, a lefthanded hitter asked to face the lefthanded Randy Johnson. And center fielder Coco Crisp, 1 for 9 in Friday's doubleheader, sat in favor of Gabe Kapler, even though Kapler was hitless in five career at-bats against Johnson entering the game.

Ass pitching gets Rudy designated for ass.

2006-08-20T12:40:00.000-04:00

Rudy Seanez was designated for assignment yesterday, ending a painful experiment. Seanez, who was signed to a one-year, $2.1 million contract over the winter, struggled with his consistency this season and didn’t come close to duplicating his 2005 with San Diego (7-1, 2.69 ERA). The 37-year-old right-hander went 2-1 with a 4.82 ERA in 41 appearances for the Sox.
``We stayed late last night to go over all the possible scenarios, what we should do, what we wanted to do, needed to do," Terry Francona said. ``If we didn't get a fresh arm, we'd put some people in jeopardy. It wasn't something we enjoyed when we told him.

Kason Gabbard, scratched from his start for Pawtucket Friday, now looms as a logical candidate to start Tuesday in Anaheim, Calif., after Kyle Snyder, who had tentatively been penciled in for that start, was used in relief in each of the last two days. Gabbard was pulled from the bus and spent the night in a motel, getting picked up in the morning by a Sox staffer.

Abreu redux

2006-08-19T11:21:00.000-04:00

In 18 games with the Yankees, Bobby Abreu is hitting .400 / .494 / .529 and went 4 for 5 with a double, a walk, a stolen base, and a run in game 1 yesterday. In the nightcap Abreu went 2 for 4 with 2 walks and 2 RBIs.

All of which raises the question: should the Red Sox have gotten him?

Obviously the money was the reason the Sox didn't want him, but it wasn't just his staight salary. Factoring in the luxury tax, Abreu would have cost the Sox close to $27.7 million for the rest of this season and next.

Any team that is over the luxury tax threshold ($136.5 million in 2006) for the third or fourth time in 2006 pays the tax at a 40 percent rate. So the total hit for Abreu in 2007 would be $15 million salary plus $2 million option buyout (if not exercised) plus a $4.6 million tax hit (if the tax rate is 40 percent and the club is over the threshold) for a total of approximately $21.6 million. Add that to the 2006 cost and you are talking about approximately $27.7 million for about a season and a third of Abreu.

Trying to deal with Detroit?

2006-08-19T11:12:00.000-04:00

The Globe reports that the Red Sox, seeking to take advantage of Detroit's need for a second baseman after Placido Polanco separated his left shoulder here Tuesday night, offered Mark Loretta to the Tigers for pitching help, but could not strike a deal.
After Loretta cleared waivers, the Sox asked the Tigers for two players out of starters Zach Miner and Wilfredo Ledezma and lefthanded reliever Jamie Walker.
It is notable that the Sox were willing to part with Loretta, who turned 35 Monday and is in the last year of his contract. Loretta had three doubles in Game 1 of yesterday's doubleheader and also doubled in two runs in the second inning of the second game.

Apparently the Sox believe top prospect Dustin Pedroia is ready for a promotion to the big leagues. Pedroia came into last night's game for Triple A Pawtucket batting .310 / .389 / .423 in 108 games, the sixth-highest average and third highest OBP in the International League. He also has 30 doubles for Pawtucket, which ranks third in the IL, and had struck out just 27 times in 413 at-bats.

Hinske a bright spot

2006-08-19T10:55:00.000-04:00

New arrival Eric Hinske wasted little time endearing himself to the Nation yesterday, hitting 3 doubles and getting a standing ovation his 4th time up.
For all the talk about how his play has dropped since his Rookie of the Year season in 2002, Hinske has played well this season. In just 197 at-bats for the Jays, he had 12 home runs and was slugging .513. I'd like to see him start against pretty much every righthanded pitcher, filling in for Mike Lowell, Wily Mo Pena, Coco Crisp, and Kevin Youkilis. Not to suggest he should play center, but the sox could start Wily Mo in center and Hinske in right, given his numbers against righties: .301 / .383 / .590, compared to how some of those other guys have performed the last 2 months:


             AVG     OBP     SLG
Crisp       .281    .338    .410
Lowell      .242    .316    .418
Youkilis    .268    .346    .386

"We got our asses totally kicked..."

2006-08-19T10:47:00.000-04:00

For some reason I find myself thinking of Jim Mora after quite a first day of the series.
The Sox were trounced 12-4, in the day game, and carried a 10-7 lead into the seventh inning of Game 2 before crumbling in humiliating fashion. Craig Hansen left with the bases loaded and one out and Mike Timlin allowed all three runners to score, as well as four more. “I feel like somebody just kicked my ass,” said an exhausted David Ortiz, who hit his 43rd home run in the ninth inning off Mariano Rivera. "Shit, someone did!”

It was still the seventh inning of Game 2 when the center-field scoreboard flashed the news that the last T would be pulling out of the Kenmore Square station at 12:35 a.m. At 12:19, with the game still in the top of the eighth, it already had become the longest nine-inning regular-season game in major league history. The nine innings took 4 hours 45 minutes, breaking the former mark of 4:27 set by the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants on Oct. 5, 2001.

Jon Lester was charged with seven runs on eight hits in 3 2/3 innings; the kid who began his big league career 5-0 has an ERA of 9.88 in his last three starts. Lester's last solid outing came on July 18, when he tossed eight shutout innings, allowing just one hit in a 1-0 win over the Kansas City Royals. Since, he has struggled big time.

His problem seems to be that, especially early in a game, he has no pitch he can count on for a strike whenever he has to get a pitch over the plate. After getting a strike out/caught stealing double play to escape the first, he blew up in the second, needing 41 pitches while allowing five runs.

Pitcher Jason Johnson was designated for assignment yesterday. The Sox have 10 days to trade Johnson, place him on waivers, or give him his unconditional release. Johnson would have to give his permission to be outrighted to Pawtucket, so presumably he will seek employment elsewhere.

Last night, perhaps anticipating that help would be needed, Pawtucket's Kason Gabbard was scratched before his scheduled start.

Starters v. Relievers, Part II

2006-08-17T21:49:00.000-04:00

The other day we were looking at how the Red Sox starters and relievers compare. The results were rather disconcerting: Rudy Seanez has better numbers than the starters?
We watch the games, we know he sucks. Something must be wrong. A few readers wrote in with some ideas. We'll start with inherited runners. Basically when a reliever lets an inherited runner score, that run is charged to whoever let the runner get on base and the reliever's ERA goes unscathed. Some readers saw this as giving Rudy Seanez a free pass for sucking and allowing tons of inherited runners to score.

We could just look at how many inherited runners a reliever strands vs how many inherited runners he has to deal with. A problem with that approach is that it doesn't make any distinction between entering the game with a runner on first and 2 outs and entering the game with a runner on third and no outs. Obviously we want to give a reliever more credit for succeeding in the later situation.

Here are the Red Sox relievers sorted by inherited runs prevented:

NAME                  IP       IRP
Craig Hansen          28.7     1.8
Mike Timlin           46       1.4
Keith Foulke          32       0.9
Jonathan Papelbon     61       0.8
Jermaine Van Buren    11.7     0.5
Kyle Snyder           28.3    -0.1
Lenny Dinardo         25.3    -1.3
Javier Lopez           8.7    -1.9
David Riske            9.7    -2.5
Manny Delcarmen       37.3    -4.1
Rudy Seanez           45.3    -6.6
Julian Tavarez        59.7    -6.9

IRP is a stat that looks at the situation when a reliever enters the game and how many runs a league average reliever would allow before getting out of the inning and subtracts the number of runs the reliever actually gave up. What's left are runs that would have scored on average but didn't because of the pitcher's work. Negative numbers are the number of runs that reliever let score that wouldn't have scored with the league average reliever in there. (#s are for 2006).

Sox acquire Hinske

2006-08-17T10:38:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox have reached a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays for cornerman Eric Hinske for a player to be named and cash considerations, including the remaining $1.4 million on his salary this season.
Hinske, 29, is hitting .294 / .376 / .575 against righthanders, better than any active Sox except David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and Kevin Youkilis.
He began the season as part of a right-field platoon with Alex Rios and hit .323 (10 for 31) in April, though none of his hits went for extra bases. With Rios emerging as a star, Hinske gradually lost playing time. He has appeared in just nine games this month, going 4 for 24 (.167). Overall, he's hitting .264 / .353 / .513.
Because the deal involves over $1 million, it requires the approval of the Commissioner.

Pena swiped from the Yanks

2006-08-17T10:26:00.000-04:00

In another move, the Sox strengthened their own depth while weakening the Yankees by signing Carlos Pena away. The 28-year old has above average power and may remind some Sox fans of Mark Bellhorn with his patience at the plate and habits for walks and strikeouts.
Peña, who is expected to report today to Triple A Pawtucket, was released by Detroit in March and signed with the Yankees April 15. Peña was leading the Columbus Clippers, the Yankees' Triple A affiliate, in home runs (19) and RBIs (66) while batting .260. But yesterday, Pena exercised a clause in his contract that allowed him to ask for his release to pursue a major league deal. He was hitting .260 in the International League with 19 home runs, 66 RBI and a .370 on-base percentage.
As recently as 2004, Peña hit 27 home runs and drove in 82 runs for the Tigers and appeared on the verge of fulfilling his considerable promise. But last season, he took another step backward, batting just .235 with 18 home runs and 44 RBIs, striking out 95 times in 260 at-bats, and was sent down to Toledo.
Team sources said Pena is expected to make his way to the big league roster no later than Sept. 1, when rosters can be expanded to as many as 40 players.

All's Wells now

2006-08-17T10:21:00.000-04:00

David Wells gave the Sox their second-straight solid start, pitching a sharp 6 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on 10 hits, striking out three and walking only one.

"He just quieted things down a little bit," Sox manager Terry Francona said. "The magnitude of any game isn't too big for him, and he just goes out and competes and throws what he throws for strikes. When he's healthy enough to do it, he's pretty good."

Wells has been better with each of his starts since returning from the DL. If the big fella can continue to give the team quality starts it will go a long way toward keeping the Sox in the race.

Craig Hansen relieved Wells and pitched 1 1/3 innings before Jonathan Papelbon picked up his 32nd save by pitching a perfect ninth. The Sox picked up a game on the Yankees, who lost, 3-2.

Around the horn

2006-08-17T10:18:00.000-04:00

David Ortiz began last night without a home run in his last six games (20 at-bats), but that streak ended when he hit his 42d home run in the fifth inning. That was the longest he had gone without a home run since May 20-30.

Jason Johnson will pitch the first game of tomorrow's doubleheader, with rookie Jon Lester going in the nightcap. Francona expects the Yankees to go with Chien-Ming Wang in the first game and Sidney Ponson in the second

The last time the Yankees came here for a five-game set, in 1959, the Sox swept all five.

Coco Crisp pushed extended his hitting streak to seven games with a 2-for-3 performance, including the go-ahead two-run double off the Green Monster in the sixth inning, in last night's 6-4 triumph over Detroit at Fenway Park. During the current homestand, Crisp is batting .345 (10-for-29) with five RBI and five runs. He has raised his batting average to a season-best .281, which is just three points behind Yankees leadoff hitter and center fielder Damon.

Two of the relievers the Red Sox had interest in trading for recently - LaTroy Hawkins and Scott Schoeneweis - will not be joining the team.
The Sox have been looking to bolster the bullpen and now will have to turn to a remaining pool of relief talent that is believed to be on the shallow side.
According to multiple major league sources, the Red Sox were the most aggressive of the three suitors pursuing Hawkins. Yesterday, however, the Baltimore Orioles pulled their 33-year-old righty off the market.
Schoeneweis, meanwhile, was sent from Toronto to Cincinnati for a player to be named or cash.
The New York Yankees and Texas Rangers also were poking around about Hawkins, who probably would not have inspired a great deal of hope to Sox followers given his numbers.
The opposition was hitting Hawkins (1-2, 4.73 ERA) at a .298 clip entering last night. He retired the one batter he faced in the O's 3-2 win in New York against the Yankees.

Starters v. relievers

2006-08-15T11:54:00.000-04:00

Jerry Remy noted last night that the Tigers' bullpen has a better ERA than the starters, and that getting to the Detroit bullpen isn't the same advantage as it is against other teams. That raises the question: how do the Red Sox starters compare to the bullpen? Well, here are the overall numbers:


            IP    HR/9   H/9   BB/9   K/9   WHIP   ERA
Starters   683.2  1.33   9.77  2.96   6.77  1.41   4.91
Relievers  354.2  1.04   9.07  3.15   7.05  1.36   4.11

As you can see, the guys we're trotting out every fifth day are not getting it done, compared with the guys who have to come in and clean it up. They are giving up more hits and homers, and even with less walks have allowed more base runners. The home runs are the real killer here, especially with those extra baserunners. Keep in mind that these numbers are adjusted for innings pitched, so while David Pauley's 7.88 ERA might seem like it will unfairly skew things against the starters, he's only pitched 16 innings and hardly effects things compared to Josh Beckett's over 150 innings of 5.00 ERA.
A closer look reveals some even more surprising results. Take a look at how everyone's favorite whipping boy compares to the starters:


             IP     HR/9  H/9   BB/9   K/9   WHIP   ERA
Starters     683.2  1.33  9.77  2.96   6.77  1.41   4.91
Rudy Seanez  44     1.23  9.41  4.09   8.8   1.5    3.89

That's right folks, the sox prospects actually improve when Rudy Seanez takes the mound.
One final note – here's how the numbers stack up for the heir apparent to the closer role vs. whipping boy number two:


               IP    HR/9   H/9   BB/9   K/9   WHIP   ERA
Julian Tavarez 59.2  1.22   10.49 3.8    5.43  1.58   4.98
Craig Hansen   27.1  0.66   10.96 2.66   6.91  1.5    5.27

Somehow, despite giving up twice as many jacks, walking more and striking out less, Julian Tavarez has a lower ERA than Craig Hansen. This may be where DIPS comes in: when comparing pitchers, look at defense-independent stats first, they remove more of the luck from the equation. Homers, Ks, and walks are all controlled by the pitcher. Hansen dominates Tavarez here, but he's given up more hits and has a worse ERA. Who is likely to be the better pitcher going forward? Obvious.

Not time to Wake yet

2006-08-15T11:46:00.000-04:00

The long-shot possibility of Tim Wakefield coming off the disabled list to face the New York Yankees in the finale of the Red Sox' longest homestand of the season Monday was all but taken off the board yesterday.
In his first throwing session off a mound in nearly a month, the knuckleballer continued to experience discomfort.
Wakefield, who hasn't pitched since July 17 due to a stress fracture in his rib cage, said that the throwing session proved to him that the injury has begun to heal but still has a ways to go.
"I threw off the mound without any problem," Wakefield said. "It's there but not as sharp of a pain as before."
The 40-year-old said that he's trying to return to duty as soon as possible but said he can't afford to come back too soon and aggravate the injury.
"It's frustrating to me because I want to be on the field," he said. "I feel I should be farther along but I have to listen to the doctors and listen to my body. It's a slow process. It's not a muscle injury. It's a bone injury and you have to wait until it heals."
Here's a look at Wake's numbers this season:

              IP     HR/9  H/9  BB/9  K/9  WHIP  ERA
Tim Wakefield 119.2  1.06  8.08 3.25  6.02 1.25 4.14

David Wells is expected to pitch Monday's finale of the five-game series against the Yankees instead.

Other roster issues

2006-08-15T11:43:00.000-04:00

With Keith Foulke's status undetermined due to recurring back problems, the Red Sox opted to bolster their taxed bullpen prior to last night's 7-4 loss to Detroit by recalling left-hander Craig Breslow from Triple-A Pawtucket.
Veteran catcher Corky Miller was designated for assignment to create room on the 25-man roster for Breslow, who made one scoreless appearance for the Sox (1 innings) on July 14 against Oakland before throwing 1 scoreless innings last night. Breslow, who was 5-1 with seven saves and a 3.00 ERA in 35 appearances for the PawSox, was selected over Javier Lopez because of his ability to pitch multiple innings, if necessary.
"If we wanted matchups, we could've gone with Lopez but we need guys who can pitch innings," Francona said. "We don't need a third of an inning, we need innings."

Posada frustrated

2006-08-14T17:58:00.000-04:00

Yankee catcher Jorge Posada is growing more and more frustrated with his struggles at the plate, the NY Daily News is reporting:

It has been more than a week since Jorge Posada got a hit and the Yankee catcher is beginning to show the frustration. It was on display as he popped up to end yesterday's 5-3 loss to the Angels at the Stadium, as he flung his bat and fired his helmet to the ground.

By going 0-for-4 yesterday, Posada extended his hitless streak to 25 at-bats. Since July 1, he is hitting an anemic .226 / .299 / .400.

"I'm frustrated," said Posada, whose average has fallen 22 points to .267. "I am working on it. It happens. I can't say that I feel good."

Posada said he has reviewed his swing on video and with others, but has found no clues. No one could identify anything mechanically amiss in his swing.

Double plays?

2006-08-14T17:36:00.000-04:00

Everyone gets annoyed when a player on their favorite team comes up in a big situation and grounds into a double play, but who are the worst culprits here? Here's the 10 guys who've grounded into the most:


1. Miguel Tejada    BAL    27
2. Mike Young       TEX    24
3. Victor Martinez  CLE    24
4. Adrian Gonzalez  SDN    21
5. Garrett Atkins   COL    21
6. Troy Glaus       TOR    21
7. Alex Rodriguez   NYA    19
8. Joe Mauer        MIN    19
9. Lyle Overbay     TOR    19
10. Preston Wilson  HOU    19

The above doesn't take opportunity into account, though. Here are the 10 guys who ground into the most double plays per opportunity (plate appearance w/ less than 2 outs and a runner on 1st, 1st and 2nd, or loaded):


1. Julio Franco     NYN   39.1%
2. Jason Kubel      MIN   34.1%
3. Kendry Morales   ANA   29.4%
4. Rondell White    MIN   27.9%
5. Lew Ford         MIN   26.7%
6. Joe Randa        PIT   26.3%
7. Ron Paulino      PIT   26.2%
8. Daryle Ward      WAS   26.1%
9. Eric Young       SDN   25.0%
10. Paul Bako       KCA   25.0%

Expected Runs

2006-08-14T10:29:00.000-04:00

I thought I'd throw the expected runs tables up here, since that conversation happened before the site was active. As you recall, the table on the left shows the average amount of runs an average MLB team scores in the given situations. The chart on the right shows the chances of scoring at least one run. The utility of sacrificing or trying to take an extra base can be seen by comparing the before and after expected runs. To find the break even success rate for stealing, use this formula:
X = (A – C) / (B – C)
X=Break even point; A=Expected runs before attempt; B=Expected runs after successful attempt; C=Expected runs after failed attempt.

Back to Earth Bronson?

2006-08-14T09:40:00.001-04:00

Perhaps even National League hitters are starting to figure out Bronson Arroyo. After starting the season with an amazing run of great pitching (and hitting) it appears that the bloom is off the rose. Over the last 2 months, Arroyo's ERA is 4.91 and he has only one win over 12 starts. Over that same span, Wily Mo Pena is hitting .311 / .364 / .672 with 5 jacks and 16 RBI.

Pitching matchups v. Detroit

2006-08-14T09:31:00.000-04:00

Here's a look at the pitching matchups for the Detroit series:
Tonight Josh Beckett (4.92 ERA, 7.38 K/9, 2.83 BB/9) takes on Nate Robertson (3.82 ERA, 5.95 K/9 2.97 BB/9). Tomorrow Curt Schilling (3.89 / 8.05 / 1.19) against Jeremy Bonderman (3.76 / 8.60 / 2.56). Wednesday David Wells (5.09 / 6.01 / 2.00 since his return), vs Justin Verlander (2.95 / 6.16 / 2.44)

Around the horn

2006-08-14T09:29:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox had been hoping that they would have an opportunity to rest some of the bullpen this weekend, but Jon Lester demonstrated right away that was not going to happen yesterday, needing 60 pitches to get through only two innings. ``After that first couple of innings," acknowledged Terry Francona, ``you're hoping he goes five. That pitch count was soaring." Lester has a 4.91 ERA over the last month and has given up 3.6 walks per 9 innings - way too many free passes.

Doug Mirabelli has homered in each of his last three starts since missing five days with a twisted ankle. Javy Lopez gets the start tonight, however. Wily Mo Peña, meanwhile, has nine home runs -- as many as Bronson Arroyo has wins in Cincinnati -- including three in the last five games. Pena is hitting .311/.364/.672 over the last month.

Jonathan Papelbon's 0.94 ERA is a pretty sweet number, but let's not forget that he has blown five of his 35 save opportunities, all since June 1 (which is more than any other AL pitcher in that time frame. He does have a 1.36 ERA over that period, though, and although his walks have gone up slightly, he's still striking out 4.22 guys for every one he walks. After 24 pitches Saturday and 31 yesterday, Papelbon will not be available tonight.

Trot Nixon is eligible to be activated from the 15-day DL tomorrow, but the right fielder is still weeks away from returning from a strained right biceps. Nixon began hitting off a tee yesterday, but he’s still wearing a brace that prevents him from extending his arm too far. “His swinging will be controlled,” Francona said. “With an injury like that, the last thing we want to do is have him try to do too much.”

Thanks Baltimore

2006-08-14T09:27:00.000-04:00

Thanks to the Orioles for getting the Sox back on track after a disasterous sweep by Kansas City. Though it was assumed the Red Sox would clean up on Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Baltimore, they went only 6-7 during a 13-game stretch against the four worst teams in the American League. Now the Tigers and Yankees come to Fenway Park for eight games over the next week. Sox fans who were ready to panic can digest this: two years ago yesterday, the 2004 Red Sox were 63-50, 10-1/2 games behind the first-place New York Yankees. Now the team is just one game back, thanks to Jared Weaver doing what his brother Jeff could never do - pitching well in Yankee Stadium. The younger Weaver gave up just three hits and struck out eight and is still unbeaten in his rookie season.

K.C. Sweep?

2006-08-10T17:05:00.000-04:00

Must sweep has become a battle not to get swept as Curt Schilling takes the mound tonight looking to turn things around for the Sox against Runelvys Hernandez and his 8.54 ERA.

Schilling will attempt to become the first pitcher in the major leagues to reach 15 wins this season when the Red Sox attempt to salvage Thursday's finale of a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals.

Hernandez has allowed at least one home run in each of his 11 starts this year and has posted a 14.21 ERA in losing his last three outings.

Sox - Royals Preview

2006-08-08T08:36:00.000-04:00

Can you say "Must Sweep"? The Red Sox need to beat up on the Royals this week, and they throw the right starters out there to do it. Jon Lester (3.59 ERA) vs. RHP Luke Hudson (4.67) tonight, followed by Josh Beckett (5.00) vs. LHP Jorge De La Rosa (8.59) tomorrow and Curt Schilling (3.78) vs. LHP Mark Redman (5.38) on Thursday.

Here's a look at the Royals' top hitters and pitchers by VORP:

Player             AVG      OBP     SLG    VORP
Mark Teahen        .275    .353    .507    17.2
David Dejesus      .297    .371    .449    14.8
Esteban German     .318    .428    .376    11.6
Mark Grudzielanek  .286    .328    .392    10.0
Emil Brown         .285    .347    .433    8.4

Player          IP     BB9    SO9    RA     VORP
Jimmy Gobble    66.3   3.39   7.73   4.75   10.2
Joe Nelson      25.3   3.20   7.11   2.84   9.4
Joel Peralta    48.7   2.77   6.29   4.44   9.3
Mark Redman    110.3   3.51   3.83   5.47   8.0
Elmer Dessens   54.0   2.17   6.00   5.17   5.8

On July 21, the Sox had a 3 1/2-game lead over the Yankees in the American League East. The next day would have been Wakefield's regular start, but he'd been placed on the DL. The Sox started Kason Gabbard that day, and the Sox lost that afternoon and the next day as well. That started a 6-9 stretch that has dropped them two games behind the Yankees in the division. They also are tied for the wild-card lead with the White Sox and are a half-game ahead of the Twins.

While Boston visits KC, followed by a series at home against Baltimore, Chicago plays the Yankees and then the Tigers. The shoe's on the other foot the following week, however, as Boston plays New York and Detroit while Chicago has a 4 game series against KC.

As The Pitching Goes...

2006-08-08T08:31:00.000-04:00

While the bullpen has received a good deal of heat in the aftermath of back-to-back shaky efforts in losses to the Devil Rays, Sox starters have also struggled, with a 3-7 record and 6.00 ERA over those 15 games. No starter other than Curt Schilling (twice) and Josh Beckett (once) has won in that time, and only once has a starter gone as many as seven innings (Schilling in last Friday's 3-2 win over Tampa Bay). That has had a ripple effect on a pen that is showing the strain of a heavy workload.

The bullpen (3-2, 5.63 ERA in that stretch) hasn't been able to bail out the starters with any consistency. Whether it's the kids -- Craig Hansen (6.75 ERA in seven appearances, scored upon in three of his last four), and Manny Delcarmen (12.60 ERA in six appearances, scored upon in four) -- or the old reliable, Mike Timlin (9.53 ERA in six appearances, an alarming 4 home runs in just 5 2/3 innings), the pen hardly offers safe refuge.

One bright spot? Since July 1, Rudy Seanez has an 0.79 ERA in 11 1/3 innings over 6 appearances. The only earned run he gave up over that period came in a 2 1/3 inning outing.

Help On The Way?

2006-08-08T08:29:00.000-04:00

Doug Mirabelli should be back mid-week after an aggressive treatment schedule kept his sprained ankle from getting more serious. Mike Lowell should be back in the lineup the next time the Sox take the field with the medical staff working overtime on his left foot. Even Keith Foulke is getting some good news, throwing well in Pawtucket. His next test will be back-to-back games and, if he passes without problem, he’ll be in the Red Sox bullpen for their weekend series at Fenway.
"I may throw six straight forkballs and see what they do, or three straight curveballs, whatever. Hopefully this doesn't go on my bubblegum card, but I want to get stretched out, because when I go back I want to have the ability to give him two or three innings if he needs me."

First to 40

2006-08-07T12:52:00.000-04:00

David Ortiz became the first player to reach 40 home runs this season, but Tampa Bay out-homered the Red Sox 4-1 to take a 7-6 victory in 10 innings.
Ortiz has six homers and 14 RBIs in his last 10 games and is on a pace for 59 home runs, which would obliterate the team record of 50 held by Jimmie Foxx from the 1938 season.
Only two other Boston players -- Carl Yastrzemski (1967, 1969-70) and Manny Ramirez (2001, 2004-05) -- have hit 40 or more homers in three different seasons.

Ramirez extended his career-best hitting streak to 22-games with an eighth-inning single.

Dioner Navarro's solo homer Jonathan Papelbon completed a two-run eighth that tied it at 6. Papelbon entered with one out after Travis Lee's homer against Mike Timlin.

Papelbon, who blew his fourth save in 34 chances, has allowed runs in only four of 49 appearances. His ERA rose from 0.49 ERA to 0.64.
dropped two games back for the first time this year.

Red Sox starter Jason Johnson, who lost his previous seven starts, gave up two runs and three hits in six innings.

Tons of Runs?

2006-08-06T11:50:00.000-04:00

Jason Johnson faces J.P. Howell in today’s game, which figures to be a slugfest: Howell’s opponents have a.370 OBP and a .448 SLG for his career. He's given up 9 hits in 3 2/3 innings so far this season.

Johnson had a 5.96 ERA with the Indians, and while the Sox thought that groundball pitcher like him would improve in front of their stellar infield defense, he’s actually been worse with for Boston, allowing 12 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings for a 7.90 mark. If guys are hammering your pitches, the fact that they’re on the ground doesn’t help much.

With Mike Lowell still hurt, I wonder if it’s time to see Dustin Pedroia playing for the big league club. Pedroia, who has played 28 games at second base and 69 at shortstop this season, took ground balls at third prior to last night's game and appeared to be making a smooth transition. When asked how he felt on the corner, he said he felt comfortable.

"I've played that side of the infield my whole life," he said. "It's just another 10 feet."

He’s hitting .305 / .386 / .432 for the Pawsox.

Verducci v. Abreu?

2006-08-06T11:45:00.000-04:00

Tom Verducci has criticized the Yankees' acquisition of Bobby Abreu:

Abreu has hit five home runs on the road since the 2005 All-Star break. His slugging percentage has gotten worse with every month this season (.550, .471, .404, .313). Yankees fans will chafe at his penchant for not going all-out for balls in right field, especially anything remotely close to the walls, and for his refusal to hit aggressively in run-scoring situations. It should be alarming that Abreu has whiffed once in every three at-bats in close and late situations (20 in 61 at-bats) while hitting .230. He's the kind of hitter who is happy with a walk in run-scoring situations, which sometimes leads to looking at third strikes.

While Abreu's numbers have been declining, he's not the complete choke artist Verducci describes. He cites 61 at bats close and late and says Abreu wimps out in "run-scoring situations." Abreu is batting .286 / .429 / .440 and those numbers all get better with runners on, with runners in scoring position, and with runners on and 2 outs.

Carmona Blows It Again

2006-08-06T11:42:00.000-04:00

Tigers 4, Indians 3 - Ivan Rodriguez hit the winning two-run homer with two outs in the ninth inning off struggling reliever Fausto Carmona to give host Detroit a victory over Cleveland.

With Placido Polanco on first, Rodriguez connected on Carmona's first pitch for his ninth homer. Carmona (1-7) has blown all three of his save opportunities since the Indians traded closer Bob Wickman to Atlanta July 20. Carmona has allowed 11 runs and eight hits in 2 2/3 innings over his last four outings.

Crawford Owns The Sox

2006-08-06T11:38:00.000-04:00

With all of the talk going into yesterday's game about how David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez own the Devil Rays, Gordon Edes says that if you projected Carl Crawford's 15 games against the Sox over a full year, he'd hit .365 with 54 home runs, 119 RBIs, and 97 stolen bases in 97 attempts. Crawford is 23 for 63 with 9 stolen bases, 5 home runs, and 11 RBIs against the Sox this season. Obviously sample size is an issue, but how about this:

Crawford, who turned 25 yesterday, has as many hits by his 25th birthday (749) as Ted Williams did. Only six players have stolen more bases than Crawford (202) before turning 25. Only one player in the last 65 years (Garry Templeton) had more triples than Crawford (65).

Speaking of Manny and Papi:
``It's never comfortable," D-Ray's manager Joe Madden said. ``I don't care who you've got out on the mound. Those guys. They're freaks. They are. If you throw a strike and they can reach it, they hit it hard.

``Ruth and Gehrig. Batman and Robin. I don't know. They're like the best combo in the history, maybe, of the world. Peanut butter and jelly. Chocolate and red wine. They're the best. They're the best I've ever seen. We got the ground ball to short, my goodness. It was uneasy. Very uneasy."